Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of May 2023 at 04:47 pm
Sethbru - thank you! Not having anyone else on this side of the
reality has been frustrating. Everyone wants to talk about the
first negative money supply print in ___ years without zooming out
for context. This chart is helpful.
People can say, "being frustrated is ridiculous....just tune
the voices out and/or turn them off." (I have been known to
say this to people on social media). But, I have to deal with
clients that listen to these people. This fact changes the game
completely and forces me to form counter arguments....counter
arguments that preferably hold up through future events.
Posted by curranjohn on 3rd of May 2023 at 08:36 am
You are not considering the fact the post covid money supply has
already had its impact. It has created malinvestment bubbles that
will lead to dislocation and failure. The bigger the post
covid rise in m2 the greater the risk associated with contraction.
Steve is right. The rate of change is what matters.
That just show the change in
M2 money supply
Posted by sethbru on 2nd of May 2023 at 04:40 pm
That just show the change in M2. The huge spike during COVID-19 still leaves the total M2 well above the pre-COVID trend.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
fred.stlouisfed.org
M2 (WM2NS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
View data of a measure of the U.S. money supply that includes all components of M1 plus several less-liquid assets.
Sethbru - thank you! Not
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of May 2023 at 04:47 pm
Sethbru - thank you! Not having anyone else on this side of the reality has been frustrating. Everyone wants to talk about the first negative money supply print in ___ years without zooming out for context. This chart is helpful.
People can say, "being frustrated is ridiculous....just tune the voices out and/or turn them off." (I have been known to say this to people on social media). But, I have to deal with clients that listen to these people. This fact changes the game completely and forces me to form counter arguments....counter arguments that preferably hold up through future events.
You are not considering the
Posted by curranjohn on 3rd of May 2023 at 08:36 am
You are not considering the fact the post covid money supply has already had its impact. It has created malinvestment bubbles that will lead to dislocation and failure. The bigger the post covid rise in m2 the greater the risk associated with contraction. Steve is right. The rate of change is what matters.
Yes but it's the rate
Posted by steve on 2nd of May 2023 at 04:43 pm
Yes but it's the rate of change that matters most
Does the rate of change
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of May 2023 at 04:54 pm
Does the rate of change affect the amount a currency is debased? I wouldn't understand that, but open to new ideas...
Correct. And to take both
Posted by jhbernstein on 2nd of May 2023 at 04:43 pm
Correct. And to take both into account, you really need to look at the y/y change of a log scale graph. In which case we HAVE been there before.
Nice chart. Looks like a
Posted by arun on 2nd of May 2023 at 05:39 pm
Nice chart. Looks like a bottom is coming. Bears might have fun short term. But that happy ending won’t last long unfortunately .