te22, will  you please clarify

    15:51 MOC $1.2B buyside 

    Posted by lewiscook on 29th of Mar 2023 at 04:02 pm

    te22, will  you please clarify your take on the statement, "So, the hope is that the quarter just reported was the trough, not just for MU, but the industry."??  I'm unclear after reading your input and then Matt's response.   Thanks ahead of time.

    The market’s hope, or bullish

    Posted by te22 on 29th of Mar 2023 at 05:59 pm

    The market’s hope, or bullish perspective, is that fundamentals at the most commodity oriented chip company in the semiconductor industry have bottomed, namely bc MU stated that their days of inventory peaked in the quarter.  Generally speaking, customers over order chips during the good times, because the chip industry is operating at peak capacity, and the customers want to make sure to have enough chips to make their products. Once the downturn begins, they realize they’re sitting on too much chip inventory and slow, or stop, their chip purchases.  DRAM and NAND are the most commodity oriented chips in the industry, so they have the biggest order swing factor.  Generally speaking, Micron‘s sales will fluctuate much more over the course of a cycle, than Intel, for instance, and the more specialized chip makers, such as Texas Instruments, or NVDA, which should see their sales fluctuate much less. Many market participants look to chipmakers as a leading indicator of the market, or at least the tech sector, (similar to looking at transports as a leading indicator of the SPX) and hence the economy, which is why the chip industry started its downturn, and likely bottomed, ahead of the rest of the market. Hope that answers your question, Lewis.

    Yes, it does.  Huge thank

    Posted by lewiscook on 30th of Mar 2023 at 10:38 am

    Yes, it does.  Huge thank you.

    Yes, I know what you

    Posted by mastermind on 29th of Mar 2023 at 05:10 pm

    Yes, I know what you mean. The two comments were not really in agreement. te22 was saying that Micron is seeing that the worst is behind, while Matt is saying that there is more trouble ahead. We shall see.

    I was referring to the

    Posted by matt on 29th of Mar 2023 at 05:28 pm

    I was referring to the overall economic backdrop, not MU specifically. Do you think that all the excesses of 2020 - late 2021 have been worked off and things are fundamentally great and ready to support a new bull market or strong economy? I don't

    To be clear, the bullish

    Posted by te22 on 30th of Mar 2023 at 09:32 am

    To be clear, the bullish perspective on semis having bottomed can be harmonized with the perspective that the bottom for the economy is still a ways out is by considering that either 1) its a rolling recession, hitting different industries/sectors at different stages (semis a leading component), or 2) semis will experience a double dip.  My personal view on semis is that they still have room to run, with near-term resistance around the $265 level on the SMH.  

    thank you again, te22 and

    Posted by lewiscook on 30th of Mar 2023 at 11:09 am

    thank you again, te22 and thank you, Matt

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