Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Feb 2023 at 06:01 pm
Amcap - is your TLT target 110 or are you looking for the gap
fill? Both?
Chart looks slightly bullish, but I would bet on that triangle
resolving lower. Otherwise....the Fed is wrong and you would be
correct to fight the Fed with a bet that yields go lower from
here.
Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Feb 2023 at 11:35 am
Amcap, looks like I called the TLT triangle resoultuion
direction correctly this time -- but just last week I got one
wrong (publicly.). Small data set but sort of proves the 50/50
nature of those setups. I will say that I had much more
conviction on the TLT call than I did on the SPX call last week.
We basically knew that CPI was going to be at least a touch
hot this morning, and it was. Bonds reacted appropriately (price
lower / yields higher). Eventually the inversion will reverse as we
get closer and closer to a recession. That means TLT lower /
yields higher, all else remaining equal. That said, maybe
your trade plays out as drawn, in the short term.
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My TLT trade updated https://schrts.co/eeVsPaNQ
Posted by amcap on 13th of Feb 2023 at 04:44 pm
My TLT trade updated https://schrts.co/eeVsPaNQ
schrts.co
TLT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for TLT, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
Amcap - is your TLT
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Feb 2023 at 06:01 pm
Amcap - is your TLT target 110 or are you looking for the gap fill? Both?
Chart looks slightly bullish, but I would bet on that triangle resolving lower. Otherwise....the Fed is wrong and you would be correct to fight the Fed with a bet that yields go lower from here.
Digi this is a 1-2
Posted by amcap on 14th of Feb 2023 at 06:24 am
Digi this is a 1-2 set up with a target over the weeks ahead of 120, I posted a daily chart a couple days ago . here it is https://schrts.co/wwZmZzcs
schrts.co
TLT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for TLT, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
Amcap, looks like I called
Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Feb 2023 at 11:35 am
Amcap, looks like I called the TLT triangle resoultuion direction correctly this time -- but just last week I got one wrong (publicly.). Small data set but sort of proves the 50/50 nature of those setups. I will say that I had much more conviction on the TLT call than I did on the SPX call last week. We basically knew that CPI was going to be at least a touch hot this morning, and it was. Bonds reacted appropriately (price lower / yields higher). Eventually the inversion will reverse as we get closer and closer to a recession. That means TLT lower / yields higher, all else remaining equal. That said, maybe your trade plays out as drawn, in the short term.