Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 12:42 am
John Roque (used to be a market technician for Soros fund
management) talked about the H&S pattern on KRE recently. He
has a target of $20 on Bank of America.
Canadian Banks also have lots of shorting patterns developing.
If Banks do break hard that's a bad sign for the general market. I
personally think the next leg down could have more damage on the
economic sensitive value sectors versus growth.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 03:04 pm
On percentage basis I would argue CM (Imperial bank of Canada)
is the most vulnerable to the housing market - which is closer to
52 week lows compared to TD and Royal (both have more international
exposure).
Regarding the housing bubble, I am personally not in the camp of
crash scenario. Maybe a further 20% correction. Toronto and
Vanvouver have become literally international money laudering
centers so affordibility is not a countable measurement. I came
from other countries so I think a lot of Americans, Canadians or
Australians don't fully understand how popular their countries are,
to forgeign professionals & wealthy immigrants. They all have
their own issues, but man other countries are doing far worse (just
look at Japan, Europe etc).
I would love to see a a 30% further down in Canadian banks. At
that point thet should be yielding very well. Because of the
chartered banks system, there are no outside competition to these
big 6 banks. They should come back to all time highs shortly after
the resession ends.
Posted by diabloblanco on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 01:01 pm
I wouldn't say houses in Canada have gone up to much , It's been
the currency becoming worthless but affordability no longer
exist because wages haven't kept up with theft I mean
inflation
Posted by rollerblader on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 03:07 pm
Where do you live in Canada? I'm 20 miles outside of Toronto and
my 2,200 square ft home was approximately $750,000. in 2017. Now
even though the market has slow down I can still get 1.2 - 1.3
million.
Posted by diabloblanco on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 06:09 pm
I agree at this point in time the Toronto market has really not
been impacted other then the bid over price has left the market .
I just sold a house for 1.05 mil that I bought in 94
for 189k closed sept 22. 6 months prior
to the sale a house listed for 1.1 went in a couple days for 1.3
same street but those 6% rates could cause a lot of motivated
sellers that will be underwater
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 04:03 pm
My observation is the impact so far is uneven on different types
of properties: some significant pressure on detached houses in the
2-4M range (probably the 6% mortgage rate is killing lots of
demand). The other weak area is condos in Downtown, they just never
fully came back after covid, and this year the government tightened
foreign buyers policy even more. There were lots of international
students buying condos now they are shut down from the market.
Other areas still appear pretty strong, like townhouses and smaller
houses below 2M. At least so far I do not see too much pressure
yet.
John Roque (used to be
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 12:42 am
John Roque (used to be a market technician for Soros fund management) talked about the H&S pattern on KRE recently. He has a target of $20 on Bank of America.
Canadian Banks also have lots of shorting patterns developing. If Banks do break hard that's a bad sign for the general market. I personally think the next leg down could have more damage on the economic sensitive value sectors versus growth.
Which banks in Canada hold
Posted by steve on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 12:46 pm
Which banks in Canada hold those Canadian mortgages? Another massive bubble
On percentage basis I would
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 03:04 pm
On percentage basis I would argue CM (Imperial bank of Canada) is the most vulnerable to the housing market - which is closer to 52 week lows compared to TD and Royal (both have more international exposure).
Regarding the housing bubble, I am personally not in the camp of crash scenario. Maybe a further 20% correction. Toronto and Vanvouver have become literally international money laudering centers so affordibility is not a countable measurement. I came from other countries so I think a lot of Americans, Canadians or Australians don't fully understand how popular their countries are, to forgeign professionals & wealthy immigrants. They all have their own issues, but man other countries are doing far worse (just look at Japan, Europe etc).
I would love to see a a 30% further down in Canadian banks. At that point thet should be yielding very well. Because of the chartered banks system, there are no outside competition to these big 6 banks. They should come back to all time highs shortly after the resession ends.
I wouldn't say houses in
Posted by diabloblanco on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 01:01 pm
I wouldn't say houses in Canada have gone up to much , It's been the currency becoming worthless but affordability no longer exist because wages haven't kept up with theft I mean inflation
Where do you live in
Posted by rollerblader on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 03:07 pm
Where do you live in Canada? I'm 20 miles outside of Toronto and my 2,200 square ft home was approximately $750,000. in 2017. Now even though the market has slow down I can still get 1.2 - 1.3 million.
I agree at this point
Posted by diabloblanco on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 06:09 pm
I agree at this point in time the Toronto market has really not been impacted other then the bid over price has left the market . I just sold a house for 1.05 mil that I bought in 94 for 189k closed sept 22. 6 months prior to the sale a house listed for 1.1 went in a couple days for 1.3 same street but those 6% rates could cause a lot of motivated sellers that will be underwater
My observation is the impact
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 04:03 pm
My observation is the impact so far is uneven on different types of properties: some significant pressure on detached houses in the 2-4M range (probably the 6% mortgage rate is killing lots of demand). The other weak area is condos in Downtown, they just never fully came back after covid, and this year the government tightened foreign buyers policy even more. There were lots of international students buying condos now they are shut down from the market. Other areas still appear pretty strong, like townhouses and smaller houses below 2M. At least so far I do not see too much pressure yet.
Yes wages have not kept
Posted by steve on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 01:06 pm
Yes wages have not kept pace with housing prices (agree) but housing prices surged over 20 percent on average which is simply unsustainable.
Canadian Housing
The $816,720 average selling price is an increase of 20 per cent compared to last year's level.
Article from March 2022 (20 percent increase in a year)
cbc.ca
Average Canadian house price hits $816,720 â up 20% in past year | CBC News
The price of the average Canadian home hit $816,720 in February, its highest level on record, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.