Posted by timebandit on 1st of Dec 2022 at 12:52 pm
I wonder if this will be similar to August, when $NAHL hovered
around zero for 10 trading days. It could even be longer. That is,
assuming the bear market scenario still holds. It may take longer
to convince people we are no longer in a bear and get them to give
up their hedges.
Look at the $CPCE reading from yesterday: 1.27. I've marked two
other days in November on that chart when green days in the market
had very high put/call ratio readings. The $CPC chart is similar.
It would seem these p/c ratios need to come way down before we get
a selloff or correction. I may be completely wrong about this,
because I haven't noticed this behavior in the ratios before.
Probably happened and I just wasn't paying attention.
This has been one of my base charts I watch on a daily basis
ever since Matt drew attention to it earlier this year. It seems we
could mirror the August window where we have a few pop ups above
the zero line. That together with the CPC ratio dropping to lower
levels will probably commence the big correction C(of the large
ABC) Steve has been suggesting.
I do remember a rough time in 2018 when there was a big
sell-off in SPX from the 3rd December to the 24th December. That
was a clear ABC which completed. We are busy with a far
longer bear market correction which should resolve over at least a
2 year period.
Will continue to monitor and adjust as Steve is wont to say.
Posted by lewiscook on 1st of Dec 2022 at 01:01 pm
I agree with the analysis of $CPCE. Yesterday, on Think or
Swim, the $CPCE was 1.27 (3rd highest level for the calendar year.
Now, it has dropped to 0.74. Admittedly, I remain
bearish overall, but the prospect of the Santa Claus rally along
with end of year corporate statements made to look good is
bothersome!! :-{ I follow the SMH closely and when
looking at it on a 3 year weekly chart with volume profile, it
looks to me to be up against massive resistance right now.
I'd say the 2 week countdown is on ... still need a Wave v to
pull in the suckers AND bearish commentary on TV supports as well.
As for breaking the pattern that has held all year on the
NAHL thus the 2 week countdown. What's notable is ~2 weeks
from now is also the seasonal weakness in December so should align
perfectly - still unclear if Santa is coming to town.
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$NAHL - uh-oh
Posted by timebandit on 1st of Dec 2022 at 12:07 pm
$NAHL - uh-oh
I wonder if this will
Posted by timebandit on 1st of Dec 2022 at 12:52 pm
I wonder if this will be similar to August, when $NAHL hovered around zero for 10 trading days. It could even be longer. That is, assuming the bear market scenario still holds. It may take longer to convince people we are no longer in a bear and get them to give up their hedges.
Look at the $CPCE reading from yesterday: 1.27. I've marked two other days in November on that chart when green days in the market had very high put/call ratio readings. The $CPC chart is similar. It would seem these p/c ratios need to come way down before we get a selloff or correction. I may be completely wrong about this, because I haven't noticed this behavior in the ratios before. Probably happened and I just wasn't paying attention.
This has been one of
Posted by mundy on 1st of Dec 2022 at 06:20 pm
This has been one of my base charts I watch on a daily basis ever since Matt drew attention to it earlier this year. It seems we could mirror the August window where we have a few pop ups above the zero line. That together with the CPC ratio dropping to lower levels will probably commence the big correction C(of the large ABC) Steve has been suggesting.
I do remember a rough time in 2018 when there was a big sell-off in SPX from the 3rd December to the 24th December. That was a clear ABC which completed. We are busy with a far longer bear market correction which should resolve over at least a 2 year period.
Will continue to monitor and adjust as Steve is wont to say.
I agree with the analysis
Posted by lewiscook on 1st of Dec 2022 at 01:01 pm
I agree with the analysis of $CPCE. Yesterday, on Think or Swim, the $CPCE was 1.27 (3rd highest level for the calendar year. Now, it has dropped to 0.74. Admittedly, I remain bearish overall, but the prospect of the Santa Claus rally along with end of year corporate statements made to look good is bothersome!! :-{ I follow the SMH closely and when looking at it on a 3 year weekly chart with volume profile, it looks to me to be up against massive resistance right now.
I'd say the 2 week
Posted by fredsaid on 1st of Dec 2022 at 12:31 pm
I'd say the 2 week countdown is on ... still need a Wave v to pull in the suckers AND bearish commentary on TV supports as well. As for breaking the pattern that has held all year on the NAHL thus the 2 week countdown. What's notable is ~2 weeks from now is also the seasonal weakness in December so should align perfectly - still unclear if Santa is coming to town.