Posted by timebandit on 30th of Oct 2022 at 12:10 pm
Shorting the $VIX has been a very good trade lately. It has been
busting down out of descending wedges for the most part. On the
daily, the RSI(5) is at 10.66. It doesn't get that low very often.
There are 13 occurences since 1990. But if you look back through
them, there is really no clear pattern as to how the market reacts
after this RSI level is hit.
However, there are three times when the $VIX RSI(5) is at this
level or lower and the $SPX McClellan Oscillator is at 100 or
above: now, late March 2022, and early January 2009. See snapshots
below. In 2009, the market made two slightly higher doji candles
for the next two days, before selling off and making a new low in
March. For what it's worth
Excellent observation bandit - I was pondering a divergence
forming on the INTRADAY VIX charts prior to the FOMC.
Needless to say, the low reading suggests bullish exuberance (with
protection being cast aside). The ball is firmly in
JPs hands - does he remain Firm (Hawkish) or Buckle (Dovish)?
If Nick is their mouthpiece, then I wouldn't expect
any changes.
Crazy week ahead with the FOMC decision looming large.
I have posted several articles from surrogate
Chairman "Nickileaks" the past few days. He was even on
Face The Nation Today.
@FaceTheNation
The Federal Reserve can't risk not getting on top of inflation,
The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos says.
"Even though the risk of doing too much is a recession, the risk
of not doing enough is that inflation just stays high and you have
to have a bigger downturn later."
Posted by timebandit on 30th of Oct 2022 at 03:36 pm
Yeah, that guy's article sparked the recent rally. I don't get
it, but I guess I don't need to. Seems like it's working against
their interests. Who knows?
Posted the wrong snapshot of current daily $VIX chart. This one
includess $SPX McClellan indicator
Thanks for the charts. Certainly leans toward pullback
odds. If the Fed holds the current rise in interest rates
projections, perhaps Nickileaks will lose some of his credibility
as being a Fed insider. One reporter shouldn't be able to
move the market like this.......and the Fed shouldn't be operating
like that.
What comes to mind that morning 10/21 was that things were
close to unraveling again and those issues with the UK were not yet
resolved. One big game of musical chairs.
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$VIX 15 MIN https://schrts.co/YfDAeSjn
Posted by amcap on 30th of Oct 2022 at 09:50 am
$VIX 15 MIN https://schrts.co/YfDAeSjn
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$VIX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
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Shorting the $VIX has been
Posted by timebandit on 30th of Oct 2022 at 12:10 pm
Shorting the $VIX has been a very good trade lately. It has been busting down out of descending wedges for the most part. On the daily, the RSI(5) is at 10.66. It doesn't get that low very often. There are 13 occurences since 1990. But if you look back through them, there is really no clear pattern as to how the market reacts after this RSI level is hit.
However, there are three times when the $VIX RSI(5) is at this level or lower and the $SPX McClellan Oscillator is at 100 or above: now, late March 2022, and early January 2009. See snapshots below. In 2009, the market made two slightly higher doji candles for the next two days, before selling off and making a new low in March. For what it's worth
$VIX Daily Chart
Excellent observation bandit - I
Posted by steve on 30th of Oct 2022 at 03:25 pm
Excellent observation bandit - I was pondering a divergence forming on the INTRADAY VIX charts prior to the FOMC. Needless to say, the low reading suggests bullish exuberance (with protection being cast aside). The ball is firmly in JPs hands - does he remain Firm (Hawkish) or Buckle (Dovish)? If Nick is their mouthpiece, then I wouldn't expect any changes.
Crazy week ahead with the FOMC decision looming large. I have posted several articles from surrogate Chairman "Nickileaks" the past few days. He was even on Face The Nation Today.
@FaceTheNation
The Federal Reserve can't risk not getting on top of inflation, The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos says.
"Even though the risk of doing too much is a recession, the risk of not doing enough is that inflation just stays high and you have to have a bigger downturn later."
Yeah, that guy's article sparked
Posted by timebandit on 30th of Oct 2022 at 03:36 pm
Yeah, that guy's article sparked the recent rally. I don't get it, but I guess I don't need to. Seems like it's working against their interests. Who knows?
Posted the wrong snapshot of current daily $VIX chart. This one includess $SPX McClellan indicator
Thanks for the charts. Certainly
Posted by Ray on 30th of Oct 2022 at 08:02 pm
Thanks for the charts. Certainly leans toward pullback odds. If the Fed holds the current rise in interest rates projections, perhaps Nickileaks will lose some of his credibility as being a Fed insider. One reporter shouldn't be able to move the market like this.......and the Fed shouldn't be operating like that.
What comes to mind that
Posted by steve on 30th of Oct 2022 at 05:55 pm
What comes to mind that morning 10/21 was that things were close to unraveling again and those issues with the UK were not yet resolved. One big game of musical chairs.