$SPX - Chart Link- unfortunately that bounce
yesterday appears to have been a simple zig zag abc. Remember we
needed 5 waves up, we only got 3, and it needed to punch through
that gap resistance
It would be great if we could just get a limit down in markets.
Open up, get more selling, form a wick (capitulation low) and be
done with this game for a while. The big money isn't buying until
we see contracts rise another 30-40%. They have made it clear they
aren't interested until a real capitulation.
Maybe we can get it around the Powell testimony the next few
days or this week. Someone made a point about demand destruction
being the only cure to the inflation. The market is going to handle
this now.
The government has proven for years to the present that they
can't run a budget. No way out now. We can't have people owning
houses that aren't responsible or living beyond their means
ongoing. That has to be adjusted. There used to be rules to be
trusted with more responsibility. If you didn't meet the
requirements in the past, you didn't level up. There is a reason
for it. Giving things away doesn't do anything when there is no
education or habits being built. It isn't sustainable.
As you guys have discussed, let's pray we can get out of this
with just a bear market and not something of greater concern. Sri
Lanka's economy has collapsed per their Prime minister, just seeing
news on that.
Watching that 38% fib area over the long term, seems it would be
a stick save if we can get support anywhere above that and needs to
go even lower over time. Maybe this is a kind of bearishness that
is needed to actually bottom. Fortunately I sold my trades
yesterday when we pushed into the highs and it was clear 3,770s
were shaky. Just wasn't seeing how it wasn't going to be volatile
with Powell's testimony and the markets being so
illiquid.
case in point - and I have to remind myself this as well. in
bear markets always just assume that any move is an abc 3 wave
UNTIL you get a clear 5 wave move confirmation. Yesterday I labeled
a possible 5 wave - which in hindsight I should have not done
because it never confirmed, only had 3 waves
now...the only way this can form a higher low is some sort of
more complex abc structure or a nested 1,2, 1,2. The nested 1,2,
1,2 almost never occurs so it would have to be the more complex
one.
ONE POSITIVE is that yesterday's move off of Friday's lows to
yesterday's highs was a slight symmetry break - was 143 points.
However it wasn't much of one as last week's rally was 132. So 143
vs 132 not much of a break there
Watch that symmetry break get further validated today...maybe
the market finally got bearish enough. Still really don't like that
3,674 gap lingering out there longer term. Would be great to get
some higher prices to be able to trim trades and possibly short. I
want a few upside gaps to get filled, maybe even 3 before
considering it. Lot of room for a rally when they finally let it
go. That liquidity issue works in both directions. I see we just
took out the 3,780 pivot Steve mentioned and made a hod, maybe
there is hope after all.
Market comments
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 08:31 am
$SPX - Chart Link- unfortunately that bounce yesterday appears to have been a simple zig zag abc. Remember we needed 5 waves up, we only got 3, and it needed to punch through that gap resistance
here's a 60 min view
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 08:32 am
here's a 60 min view of ES futures with one possible wave count - a wave 4 would have completed yesterday basically and down in 5
ES 15 min
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 09:21 am
ES 15 min
It would be great if
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 08:47 am
It would be great if we could just get a limit down in markets. Open up, get more selling, form a wick (capitulation low) and be done with this game for a while. The big money isn't buying until we see contracts rise another 30-40%. They have made it clear they aren't interested until a real capitulation.
Maybe we can get it around the Powell testimony the next few days or this week. Someone made a point about demand destruction being the only cure to the inflation. The market is going to handle this now.
The government has proven for years to the present that they can't run a budget. No way out now. We can't have people owning houses that aren't responsible or living beyond their means ongoing. That has to be adjusted. There used to be rules to be trusted with more responsibility. If you didn't meet the requirements in the past, you didn't level up. There is a reason for it. Giving things away doesn't do anything when there is no education or habits being built. It isn't sustainable.
As you guys have discussed, let's pray we can get out of this with just a bear market and not something of greater concern. Sri Lanka's economy has collapsed per their Prime minister, just seeing news on that.
Watching that 38% fib area over the long term, seems it would be a stick save if we can get support anywhere above that and needs to go even lower over time. Maybe this is a kind of bearishness that is needed to actually bottom. Fortunately I sold my trades yesterday when we pushed into the highs and it was clear 3,770s were shaky. Just wasn't seeing how it wasn't going to be volatile with Powell's testimony and the markets being so illiquid.
Totally agree and well said
Posted by rfa300 on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 09:11 am
Totally agree and well said FV.
case in point - and
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 09:27 am
case in point - and I have to remind myself this as well. in bear markets always just assume that any move is an abc 3 wave UNTIL you get a clear 5 wave move confirmation. Yesterday I labeled a possible 5 wave - which in hindsight I should have not done because it never confirmed, only had 3 waves
now...the only way this can form a higher low is some sort of more complex abc structure or a nested 1,2, 1,2. The nested 1,2, 1,2 almost never occurs so it would have to be the more complex one.
ONE POSITIVE is that yesterday's move off of Friday's lows to yesterday's highs was a slight symmetry break - was 143 points. However it wasn't much of one as last week's rally was 132. So 143 vs 132 not much of a break there
Watch that symmetry break get
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 10:26 am
Watch that symmetry break get further validated today...maybe the market finally got bearish enough. Still really don't like that 3,674 gap lingering out there longer term. Would be great to get some higher prices to be able to trim trades and possibly short. I want a few upside gaps to get filled, maybe even 3 before considering it. Lot of room for a rally when they finally let it go. That liquidity issue works in both directions. I see we just took out the 3,780 pivot Steve mentioned and made a hod, maybe there is hope after all.
this is what I meant
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 09:28 am
this is what I meant by that symmetry comment below - eh not much of a break
Always appreciate your mkt comments
Posted by shellson2 on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 08:56 am
Always appreciate your mkt comments