Posted by timebandit on 15th of Jan 2022 at 04:43 pm
On Friday, the 10 day moving average of $TRIN closed at 0.76 .
That seemed low, but my chart only went back to March of 2021. So I
looked back, and this is the lowest reading since December 2012.
That got me curious about what $SPX did in the days following a
reading below 0.77. I went back to 1991, and you can see for
yourself in the snapshots provided below. (Note: the first snapshot
is the current chart.)
Here's the summary:
Every time the 10 dma of $TRIN made a V bottom (this happened 7
times), $SPX was down the next day and usually for multiple days
thereafter.
However, there were 5 times when the 10 dma stayed below
0.77 for multiple days, and the record was more uneven. In two of
these, $SPX was up. In another two, $SPX moved down or began a
pullback immediately after. In the fifth example, $SPX was up and
down, ending slightly up, before continuing an uptrend.
Of the 12 occurrences, 9 signaled a move down in $SPX, 3 ended
with $SPX up and continuing to move up.
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jan 2022 at 10:02 pm
TRIN follow up. TRIN hit 0.76 on Friday, something that has
happened 12 times since 1991. It made a V bottom (see below). And
like each of the nine V bottoms at 0.77 or lower in the last 31
years, $SPX sold off hard. I'll be filing this one away for the
future, though it doesn't happen often.
Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 08:52 am
You're lucky I kept it:
TRIN Chart. I created another chart to do this research because I
didn't want to save over the settings of the chart I review each
night, and I almost deleted it over the weekend. I guess I'm lucky,
too, because when I generated the look below, I found two other V
bottoms in 2009 I had overlooked last week. Those signaled selloffs
as well, both a couple days long I think. So this signal is 12 for
12 counting Friday's occurrence. This look also made me think I
need to zoom in and examine what happens when 10 dma of TRIN hits
extreme highs.
Posted by mitchell on 17th of Aug 2022 at 09:38 pm
Timebandit - Whats your take on $TRIN indicator reaching
lows...implies market top...? Lots of contradicting indicator
signals out there, which makes this market treacherous.
Posted by timebandit on 18th of Aug 2022 at 07:26 pm
Ok, mitchell, it's getting pretty extreme. Not a perfect timing
mechanism, if you look back at earlier occurences at this level.
But definitely could be close to a strong move. My guess
would be down, but it's just a guess
Posted by timebandit on 17th of Aug 2022 at 09:46 pm
Man, I’ve been looking at that and haven’t been able to draw
anything conclusions. That indicator is funky. It’s not at an
extreme, which was where it was when I made that original post and
was able to compare it to other occurrences. Tell me if you’ve been
able to figure it out.
Posted by timebandit on 15th of Jan 2022 at 05:48 pm
The weird thing about the current low reading is that it has
occurred during a pullback in $SPX. In almost all of the
snapshots posted below, the low reading of the TRIN 10 dma occurred
at the end of strong up moves.
According to Investopedia, The Arms Index moves opposite the
price trajectory of the Index. A strong price rally will see TRIN
move to lower levels. A falling index will see TRIN push higher.
TRIN will be below 1 when advancing stocks are the major source of
volume.
$NYUD has been a lot stronger than $NYAD during the recent
decline in $SPX, so that would explain the low TRIN readings. Maybe
the snapshots of past low readings don't apply to the current
situation because they happened under different circumstances. I
guess we'll find out this week.
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On Friday, the 10 day
Posted by timebandit on 15th of Jan 2022 at 04:43 pm
On Friday, the 10 day moving average of $TRIN closed at 0.76 . That seemed low, but my chart only went back to March of 2021. So I looked back, and this is the lowest reading since December 2012. That got me curious about what $SPX did in the days following a reading below 0.77. I went back to 1991, and you can see for yourself in the snapshots provided below. (Note: the first snapshot is the current chart.)
Here's the summary:
Every time the 10 dma of $TRIN made a V bottom (this happened 7 times), $SPX was down the next day and usually for multiple days thereafter.
However, there were 5 times when the 10 dma stayed below 0.77 for multiple days, and the record was more uneven. In two of these, $SPX was up. In another two, $SPX moved down or began a pullback immediately after. In the fifth example, $SPX was up and down, ending slightly up, before continuing an uptrend.
Of the 12 occurrences, 9 signaled a move down in $SPX, 3 ended with $SPX up and continuing to move up.
TRIN follow up. TRIN hit
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jan 2022 at 10:02 pm
TRIN follow up. TRIN hit 0.76 on Friday, something that has happened 12 times since 1991. It made a V bottom (see below). And like each of the nine V bottoms at 0.77 or lower in the last 31 years, $SPX sold off hard. I'll be filing this one away for the future, though it doesn't happen often.
Do you mind providing chart
Posted by mitchell on 20th of Jan 2022 at 10:24 pm
Do you mind providing chart link showing 12x? Thanks.
You're lucky I kept it:
Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 08:52 am
You're lucky I kept it: TRIN Chart . I created another chart to do this research because I didn't want to save over the settings of the chart I review each night, and I almost deleted it over the weekend. I guess I'm lucky, too, because when I generated the look below, I found two other V bottoms in 2009 I had overlooked last week. Those signaled selloffs as well, both a couple days long I think. So this signal is 12 for 12 counting Friday's occurrence. This look also made me think I need to zoom in and examine what happens when 10 dma of TRIN hits extreme highs.
Timebandit - Whats your take
Posted by mitchell on 17th of Aug 2022 at 09:38 pm
Timebandit - Whats your take on $TRIN indicator reaching lows...implies market top...? Lots of contradicting indicator signals out there, which makes this market treacherous.
Ok, mitchell, it's getting pretty
Posted by timebandit on 18th of Aug 2022 at 07:26 pm
Ok, mitchell, it's getting pretty extreme. Not a perfect timing mechanism, if you look back at earlier occurences at this level. But definitely could be close to a strong move. My guess would be down, but it's just a guess
$TRIN chart
Man, I’ve been looking at
Posted by timebandit on 17th of Aug 2022 at 09:46 pm
Man, I’ve been looking at that and haven’t been able to draw anything conclusions. That indicator is funky. It’s not at an extreme, which was where it was when I made that original post and was able to compare it to other occurrences. Tell me if you’ve been able to figure it out.
Not one I use but
Posted by mitchell on 17th of Aug 2022 at 09:54 pm
Not one I use but glanced at it today as I scan indicators...seems to indicate near ST top similar to early 2022, but not conclusive as you mention.
At first glance seems some
Posted by mitchell on 21st of Jan 2022 at 09:29 am
At first glance seems some of these also occurred during lows. Not sure if I can make a conclusion.
The weird thing about the
Posted by timebandit on 15th of Jan 2022 at 05:48 pm
The weird thing about the current low reading is that it has occurred during a pullback in $SPX. In almost all of the snapshots posted below, the low reading of the TRIN 10 dma occurred at the end of strong up moves.
According to Investopedia, The Arms Index moves opposite the price trajectory of the Index. A strong price rally will see TRIN move to lower levels. A falling index will see TRIN push higher. TRIN will be below 1 when advancing stocks are the major source of volume.
$NYUD has been a lot stronger than $NYAD during the recent decline in $SPX, so that would explain the low TRIN readings. Maybe the snapshots of past low readings don't apply to the current situation because they happened under different circumstances. I guess we'll find out this week.