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SPX may be extended but

Posted by mitchell on 19th of May 2025 at 04:53 pm

SPX may be extended but Stoch60 still embedded on most timeframes...incredible

@Glad - Im noticing uncorrelations today that typ precede pullbacks.  Today good day to strategically sell spy calls / buy puts.  Call skew keeping call premiums > puts now.

Steve - Agreed on pullback looming; I understand there to be high call skew into Fri opex, which likely creates upward bias until then and unwind after. Any thoughts on probability of potential pullback before / after opex from ur perspective / sources? Thanks.

Important distinction...NAAIM Exposure Index measures adjustments active risk managers have made to client accounts over the past two weeks; not necessarily all retail investors. 

Trump pump, then the dump. Good time to sell spy calls w/ these elevated premiums into supply / resistance zones.

Was yesterday's SPX KISS chart not updated in newsletter b/c now shows went long before today w/ 2 STSs...?  Need consistency. 

agree, spx short term options premiums quite elevated.

fwiw...jason shapiro, based on COT

Gold

Posted by mitchell on 16th of Apr 2025 at 01:37 pm

fwiw...jason shapiro, based on COT data, doesnt see a top yet b/c there still is not large spec buying. He cautioned this could go on for longer than one thinks...

Sure wouldn’t short gold w/o valid trigger but now I will sell some physical coins like Matt did earlier. 

Believe today was 79% uvol

Posted by mitchell on 14th of Apr 2025 at 10:32 pm

Believe today was 79% uvol day...might be close enough.

massive short squeeze to sell

Posted by mitchell on 9th of Apr 2025 at 01:39 pm

massive short squeeze to sell call options for nice premium

Last day to get SPY

Posted by mitchell on 20th of Mar 2025 at 02:30 pm

Last day to get SPY div. 

this may be working on

% Stocks in S&P 500 above 20 EMA

Posted by mitchell on 12th of Mar 2025 at 06:45 pm

this may be working on larger 1/2 pattern w/ nice divergence now...

this straight down move from highs has same end-to-end slope of July pullback (very steep) and similar to covid crash velocity. 

I studied this method few yrs back and found for me was mainly useful after-the-fact; hard to identify real time w/ large lot volume having moved off market. Maybe you guys can  teach us otherwise. I find more useful/reliable the other methods you guys use...major support lines, demand zones, etc.  Would appreciate an educational video from Matt/Steve on identifying BOS/demand zones, and providing 'level to level' examples. 

SPX sitting on 61.8% fib

Posted by mitchell on 21st of Feb 2025 at 08:00 pm

SPX sitting on 61.8% fib of the up move from 5924. Should produce at least a bounce.

Matt - Educational ? to

SPX 60 min views/comments

Posted by mitchell on 20th of Feb 2025 at 12:16 pm

Matt - Educational ? to help me improve my mapping...since W4 overlaps W1 would this count still be valid? Thanks.

SPX Equal weight still seriously

Posted by mitchell on 14th of Feb 2025 at 10:47 am

SPX Equal weight still seriously lagging SPX 

https://schrts.co/sRQBHyiS 


SBUX still going strong...likely 115 this month. Im out of it now but surprised its been moving concurrent to coffee.  In past coffee runs it acted inverse. 

Great day for selling options

Posted by mitchell on 3rd of Feb 2025 at 11:19 am

Great day for selling options both directions. Has been traders mkt so far this yr and will likely continue. 

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