Not that I'm in love with it but it's possible that the Breakout
Sub system may trigger today. This is the one non mean reversion to
the SPY systems. The condition was lost earlier on the pullback but
is back now, so if the market pulls back again it will ago away.
I'll have to wait to near close to confirm.
The breakout trade buys overbought conditions, no way around
that and the market will always look overbought when this trade
occurs. Here's some examples in the past, and I've included a
couple of losers - it will stop out should the market not go
higher.
If you were concerned about the market could you do some sort of
hedge or spread here where you buy a cheap Put for protection?
probably though I'm not versed enough on that, some of you
option experts out there could suggest something.
Otherwise the trade will be for SPY ETF and 1 SPY call option 2
months out (I don't see one 2 months out, there is Aug 20th and
Sept 17th) you could pick one of those. For 1st entry I target a
0.6 - 0.7 delta
Scary to buy at a bottom for a reversion trade, scarier to buy
at a top for a breakout trade. But they have both worked before, so
I'm counting on it :)
SPY Systems early notification
Posted by matt on 29th of Jun 2021 at 03:20 pm
Not that I'm in love with it but it's possible that the Breakout Sub system may trigger today. This is the one non mean reversion to the SPY systems. The condition was lost earlier on the pullback but is back now, so if the market pulls back again it will ago away. I'll have to wait to near close to confirm.
The breakout trade buys overbought conditions, no way around that and the market will always look overbought when this trade occurs. Here's some examples in the past, and I've included a couple of losers - it will stop out should the market not go higher.
If you were concerned about the market could you do some sort of hedge or spread here where you buy a cheap Put for protection? probably though I'm not versed enough on that, some of you option experts out there could suggest something.
Otherwise the trade will be for SPY ETF and 1 SPY call option 2 months out (I don't see one 2 months out, there is Aug 20th and Sept 17th) you could pick one of those. For 1st entry I target a 0.6 - 0.7 delta
trade confirmed. Option is the
Posted by matt on 29th of Jun 2021 at 04:05 pm
trade confirmed. Option is the SPY Sept 17th call with a strike of 418
Scary to buy at a
Posted by lapri24 on 29th of Jun 2021 at 04:13 pm
Scary to buy at a bottom for a reversion trade, scarier to buy at a top for a breakout trade. But they have both worked before, so I'm counting on it :)
LOL yeah seems like almost
Posted by matt on 29th of Jun 2021 at 04:13 pm
LOL yeah seems like almost every trade is scary
sorry guys having TS issues
Posted by matt on 29th of Jun 2021 at 04:03 pm
sorry guys having TS issues here waiting for the chat to refresh on SPY
this is good information even
Posted by retirefire on 29th of Jun 2021 at 03:36 pm
this is good information even if not played. May be early for shorting vs. hedge
instead of sending an email
Posted by matt on 29th of Jun 2021 at 03:30 pm
instead of sending an email a min before the close and risk having it take 5 or 10 min to fully send, I'll confirm the trade here instead