Hi guys quick update on the SPY reversion to mean systems. As
you know two of the sub systems are long, Trend/Pullback and QE
BTS
So at this moment both systems are looking to exit today, the
first large chart shows you all the collective 22 sub systems
The second image shows the two versions of the Trend/Pullback
sub system. I've discussed this before, the original system
is on the right where you see all those multiple entries and bigger
trades, and the more stringent one is on the left that has a much
more aggressive exit to help it avoid getting caught in those big
downtrends by aggressively exiting after a bounce i.e. reversion to
mean.
That said what I'm probably going to do is this: Exit the QE BTS
system fully, and then exit the option for the Trend/Pullback sub
system. I'll then keep the ETF portion long with a stop just above
entry and then plan to exit that portion when the original Trend
system exits.
remember the Trend/Pullback - the original system makes a lot
more money because it holds trades longs and has more entries, but
we don't only use that because it can get into trouble and get
caught in a big downtrend. However most of the time that doesn't
happen and we can elect to follow it with a stop
what I'm going to do for the open SPY system trades: For the QE
BTS selling the option today and the ETF tomorrow on the open.
This system technically will exit tomorrow morning on the
open not the close today but I'll elect to exit the option
today.
For the Trend / pullback trade, remember we are following two
versions of this, one exits today, and one holds. I'll exit the
option today for one of them, and continue to hold the ETF shares
for the other version with a stop
right now the SPY option is trading at 25.25, we bought it at
around 19.5. The option would be higher normally but the fact
that the VIX has sold off since that purchase, you lose some
volatility price with the option, still it's a good trade
Posted by fredsaid on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 03:22 pm
It's a fantastic trade ! I bought 2 calls. Sold one
yesterday at 4220. Plan to sell 2nd possibly near close if we
keep cranking or at the open. Thank you.
One the QE BTS trade - that system actually exits on the next
day's open and not the close, thus if an exit signal is generated
today (so far it is) then technically it would exit on tomorrows
opening bar, not at today's close. You of course can do what fits
your style
CLICK to Expand comments - SPY reversion to mean systems trade update
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 11:19 am
Hi guys quick update on the SPY reversion to mean systems. As you know two of the sub systems are long, Trend/Pullback and QE BTS
So at this moment both systems are looking to exit today, the first large chart shows you all the collective 22 sub systems
The second image shows the two versions of the Trend/Pullback sub system. I've discussed this before, the original system is on the right where you see all those multiple entries and bigger trades, and the more stringent one is on the left that has a much more aggressive exit to help it avoid getting caught in those big downtrends by aggressively exiting after a bounce i.e. reversion to mean.
That said what I'm probably going to do is this: Exit the QE BTS system fully, and then exit the option for the Trend/Pullback sub system. I'll then keep the ETF portion long with a stop just above entry and then plan to exit that portion when the original Trend system exits.
remember the Trend/Pullback - the original system makes a lot more money because it holds trades longs and has more entries, but we don't only use that because it can get into trouble and get caught in a big downtrend. However most of the time that doesn't happen and we can elect to follow it with a stop
image confirms the one SPY
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 04:06 pm
image confirms the one SPY Trend/Pullback did not exit, while one did. The QE BTS exits tomorrow on the open
what I'm going to do
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 03:15 pm
what I'm going to do for the open SPY system trades: For the QE BTS selling the option today and the ETF tomorrow on the open. This system technically will exit tomorrow morning on the open not the close today but I'll elect to exit the option today.
For the Trend / pullback trade, remember we are following two versions of this, one exits today, and one holds. I'll exit the option today for one of them, and continue to hold the ETF shares for the other version with a stop
right now the SPY option
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 03:16 pm
right now the SPY option is trading at 25.25, we bought it at around 19.5. The option would be higher normally but the fact that the VIX has sold off since that purchase, you lose some volatility price with the option, still it's a good trade
It's a fantastic trade !
Posted by fredsaid on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 03:22 pm
It's a fantastic trade ! I bought 2 calls. Sold one yesterday at 4220. Plan to sell 2nd possibly near close if we keep cranking or at the open. Thank you.
One the QE BTS trade
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 01:22 pm
One the QE BTS trade - that system actually exits on the next day's open and not the close, thus if an exit signal is generated today (so far it is) then technically it would exit on tomorrows opening bar, not at today's close. You of course can do what fits your style
Ditto on the thank you.
Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jun 2021 at 01:38 pm
Ditto on the thank you. These systems are really valuable.