Here are some stats on

    Posted by bk1976 on 29th of Feb 2020 at 03:46 pm

    Here are some stats on the S&P500 on a monthly chart and the lower Bollinger Band as a target when a >10% correction happens in less than 2 months or in a few weeks like just happened since 1982.  As you can see there can be quite a wide variance in a target however percentage wise with the average error factored in it gets you in the ballpark.  Thankfully this has happened only 12 times in 38 years.  In FEB 2020 at one time the S&P500 monthly candle was  greater than 50 point above the upper Bollinger Band a clear sign that a consolidation at a minimum was at hand. Funny on how a 50 point (1.5%) gain was a great day for the market, just a little perspective.

    broken link . can you

    Posted by arun on 29th of Feb 2020 at 09:27 pm

    broken link . can you repost please

      MONTHLY DATA of S&P500 corrections of

    Posted by bk1976 on 29th of Feb 2020 at 10:16 pm

     

    MONTHLY DATA of S&P500 corrections of greater than 10% in a 1 or 2 month time frame that started in an uptrend.








    Year of Market Top Top Bottom Point loss Correction in % MONTHLY Lower BB at the TOP Market TOP compared to the lower BB at the TOP in % of correction Error of the Lower BB as a target for a bottom. Negative # means the BB was too low by this % or positive # being too high. The average error was -5%.
    1987 337 216 121 -35 198 -41 -6
    1990 369 294 75 -20 282 -23 -3
    1998 1190 923 267 -22 686 -42 -20
    2000 1553 1340 213 -13 1013 -34 -20
    2000 1530 763 767 -50 1232 -19 31
    2007 1576 666 910 -57 1221 -45 12
    2010 1219 1010 209 -17 738 -39 -21
    2011 1356 1070 286 -21 957 -29 -8
    2012 1422 1266 156 -11 1088 -23 -12
    2015 2134 1808 326 -15 1775 -16 -1
    2018 2872 2553 319 -11 1986 -30 -19
    2018 2940 2346 594 -20 2271 -22 -2
    2020 3393 2855 538 -16 2553 -25








    Bollinger Band 20:2=BB






    2020 data based on 2/28 close






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