Posted by steve101 on 22nd of Feb 2020 at 08:52 pm
Matt, in the past you were thinking commodities were ready to
lead the SPX to the upside, and it turned out to be pre-mature. It
may be close to the time to be monitoring this again. The CRB has
been in an 11 year 73% decline. It looks to me like a large ABC
pattern from its peak and that we are completing the 5th wave of
the C leg down. This suggests that commodities will be the place to
be and will outperform equities in the not too distant future. It
certainly has my attention - grains, oil, nat gas, agriculture,
gold, silver, etc.
steve101 regarding that chart - it's honestly continued to
weaken, note the MA ribbon that has pinched serveral times since
then from a bearish configuration. The problem with
commodities is that if things slow down, things like crude oil,
copper, steel, are used much less, so where's the demand. Of
course the problem with the CRB is that it's about 50% energy so
it's not a great overall view of commodities as it's to skewed. I
think there's an equal weighted version but I don't know the
symbol. I think the GCC is the Thomson equal weighted
commodity index ETF - however even if I plot the same graph with
the GCC / SPX the ratio still looks the same
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Matt, in the past you
Posted by steve101 on 22nd of Feb 2020 at 08:52 pm
Matt, in the past you were thinking commodities were ready to lead the SPX to the upside, and it turned out to be pre-mature. It may be close to the time to be monitoring this again. The CRB has been in an 11 year 73% decline. It looks to me like a large ABC pattern from its peak and that we are completing the 5th wave of the C leg down. This suggests that commodities will be the place to be and will outperform equities in the not too distant future. It certainly has my attention - grains, oil, nat gas, agriculture, gold, silver, etc.
steve101 regarding that chart -
Posted by matt on 23rd of Feb 2020 at 02:14 pm
steve101 regarding that chart - it's honestly continued to weaken, note the MA ribbon that has pinched serveral times since then from a bearish configuration. The problem with commodities is that if things slow down, things like crude oil, copper, steel, are used much less, so where's the demand. Of course the problem with the CRB is that it's about 50% energy so it's not a great overall view of commodities as it's to skewed. I think there's an equal weighted version but I don't know the symbol. I think the GCC is the Thomson equal weighted commodity index ETF - however even if I plot the same graph with the GCC / SPX the ratio still looks the same