Gold COT not really bullish. Last week that it was the
"non-commercial specs" that went shorter - and again this week we
see they added 12K short OI and took off 7.8K of their long OI.
Unlike most times... there was a huge chunk of puts that
ended up in the money on this last options X.
If you look at today's dis aggregated report you will see
that the "managed funds" added 11K short and less than 1K long OI.
That isn't what I want to see.
In the Jan-April time frame the non-commercial specs were
averaging around 3.3 to one long to short. As of today's report it
was 1.92 to 1 long to short. Ever since I've been watching the
COT's rising prices have been dependent upon SPEC interest.
we're not saying it's crazy bullish, but it's nice to see the
total net short work below 100K. That said, when you look at
history it's been as low as 5K and has had plenty of times when it
bottomed around the 40 - 70K range, so it could go lower and
honestly I would rather have it go lower myself. And in order
to go lower that means lower prices for gold to get it there.
Again what was a bullish setup last week was the falling
wedge on the GDX 2hr time frame, which played out nicely. Did
gold or silver metal have a nice bottoming pattern? No way, they
were both still in their death spiral, you want to see some sort of
pattern emerge there to suggest a bottom.
again I know what you are saying and it's a valid point.
However I've also monitored the 'net' short numbers since
2004, so I've been doing it a long time and know how they behave.
Last week's drop below 100K isn't a buy signal but it's
finally working down to levels where I will start to monitor the
metal for signs of bottoming. And yes we might need to see the
'net' short drop to 50K or lower before it's done who
knows.
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Gold COT not really bullish.
Posted by victorh on 30th of Jun 2018 at 11:53 pm
Gold COT not really bullish. Last week that it was the "non-commercial specs" that went shorter - and again this week we see they added 12K short OI and took off 7.8K of their long OI.
Unlike most times... there was a huge chunk of puts that ended up in the money on this last options X.
If you look at today's dis aggregated report you will see that the "managed funds" added 11K short and less than 1K long OI. That isn't what I want to see.
In the Jan-April time frame the non-commercial specs were averaging around 3.3 to one long to short. As of today's report it was 1.92 to 1 long to short. Ever since I've been watching the COT's rising prices have been dependent upon SPEC interest.
we're not saying it's crazy
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jul 2018 at 09:36 am
we're not saying it's crazy bullish, but it's nice to see the total net short work below 100K. That said, when you look at history it's been as low as 5K and has had plenty of times when it bottomed around the 40 - 70K range, so it could go lower and honestly I would rather have it go lower myself. And in order to go lower that means lower prices for gold to get it there. Again what was a bullish setup last week was the falling wedge on the GDX 2hr time frame, which played out nicely. Did gold or silver metal have a nice bottoming pattern? No way, they were both still in their death spiral, you want to see some sort of pattern emerge there to suggest a bottom.
again I know what you are saying and it's a valid point. However I've also monitored the 'net' short numbers since 2004, so I've been doing it a long time and know how they behave. Last week's drop below 100K isn't a buy signal but it's finally working down to levels where I will start to monitor the metal for signs of bottoming. And yes we might need to see the 'net' short drop to 50K or lower before it's done who knows.