I mentioned this a couple weeks ago that the 60 Stochastic had
reversed just close to the 50% area, which is a low risk short, the
same thing also occurs when 60 Stochastic reverses close to the 80%
area, the key is that it has to get really close to those areas
like within 3 percentage points 47 - 50% or 77 - 80% . A
couple weeks ago I mentioned how the 60 Stochastic testing and
failing the underside of the 50% area was bearish. I have two
sub systems for this, one on the ES system and one on SPY, what
sucks is that the sub system on ES triggered but the one on the SPY
did not, I had mentioned it it missed the condition by pennies.
Here's the current trade on that, it might actually close out
today is the reason I bring it up, but also it's something you
should put in your arsenal of TA tools. Think about how many
times I discuss the 60 Stochastic, I use it a lot, have for years.
Going forward remember using a 60 length stochastic the 50%
area is important support and resistance, and the 80% area is an
area to monitor as well for resistance. Here's some past examples
of that trade.
Now on the ES system while this sub system is short, one of the
other sub systems are long the trend, so in effect they've been
canceling one another if someone traded both of them.
Regarding the SPY system: someone asked about the SPY
system, well I've already covered that, a couple weeks ago when the
Trend system went long , which was the trend system same as the ES
system, I said if the trade didn't get out before the market pulled
back, should the market sell off and make another low below the 200
MA, that the system would probably be taking a 2nd or even a 3rd
entry if the pullback was deep enough. So none of that is new
or should be a surprise. Max historical draw down on the 1st
entry of the SPY system is about 10%, so you can use that as a
guide for a stop, or you can set tighter stops outside the system,
that fit your risk tolerance, or you could have bought a
hedge like some puts or inverse ETF's. The point is the
system is not going to close out, it will after a good bounce
occurs, it will take a 2nd or 3rd entry if necessary. If you
are not comfortable with that, then don't do it or do smaller
positions sizes.
50% rejection trade is still active on ES system
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2018 at 11:12 am
I mentioned this a couple weeks ago that the 60 Stochastic had reversed just close to the 50% area, which is a low risk short, the same thing also occurs when 60 Stochastic reverses close to the 80% area, the key is that it has to get really close to those areas like within 3 percentage points 47 - 50% or 77 - 80% . A couple weeks ago I mentioned how the 60 Stochastic testing and failing the underside of the 50% area was bearish. I have two sub systems for this, one on the ES system and one on SPY, what sucks is that the sub system on ES triggered but the one on the SPY did not, I had mentioned it it missed the condition by pennies. Here's the current trade on that, it might actually close out today is the reason I bring it up, but also it's something you should put in your arsenal of TA tools. Think about how many times I discuss the 60 Stochastic, I use it a lot, have for years. Going forward remember using a 60 length stochastic the 50% area is important support and resistance, and the 80% area is an area to monitor as well for resistance. Here's some past examples of that trade.
Now on the ES system while this sub system is short, one of the other sub systems are long the trend, so in effect they've been canceling one another if someone traded both of them.
Regarding the SPY system: someone asked about the SPY system, well I've already covered that, a couple weeks ago when the Trend system went long , which was the trend system same as the ES system, I said if the trade didn't get out before the market pulled back, should the market sell off and make another low below the 200 MA, that the system would probably be taking a 2nd or even a 3rd entry if the pullback was deep enough. So none of that is new or should be a surprise. Max historical draw down on the 1st entry of the SPY system is about 10%, so you can use that as a guide for a stop, or you can set tighter stops outside the system, that fit your risk tolerance, or you could have bought a hedge like some puts or inverse ETF's. The point is the system is not going to close out, it will after a good bounce occurs, it will take a 2nd or 3rd entry if necessary. If you are not comfortable with that, then don't do it or do smaller positions sizes.
THANK you Matt for that
Posted by sschulman on 3rd of May 2018 at 11:31 am
THANK you Matt for that comprehensive explanation.