$INDU - Chart Link - here's the long term
quarterly chart that I've shown for the past year. Early last
year I discussed the secular bull and bear cycles and the ADX
indicator when it would go over 30, the past two secular bull
cycles entered their second phases and ramped much higher.
One might argue, well we've been in a bull market now for almost
9 years, so this couldn't happen. Yes we have, however look
at the past to secular cycles, they all had their bear market
bottoms typically 8 - 10 years BEFORE the ADX went over 30.
The ADX going over 30 was about mid cycle only for those last two
secular bull markets. In the first secular bull, ADX went
over 30 in 1953 and the market didn't top out until 1966.
During the last secular bull market ADX went over 30 in 1986, well
that market didn't top until 2000.
Anyway I'm not saying this is the case this time, but always
keep an open mind.
Even if this were the case now, there will of course be
pullbacks along the way, but more short term bear markets, nothing
like 2008, and generally only lasting 1 quarter to a year.
we'll see how this thing unfolds.....
short term though the market is quite extended - remember this
is big picture stuff, Nothing to do with short term
now.
I understand your take on the long term but any measure this
short term or not so short term melt up is very rare. There needs
to be more discussion on how this is to resolve in the weeks
ahead
hey matt- can you show an update on the 401(k) / monthly ES
exhaustion short tonight (with TS stats)?
I'm interested to see what levels its looking for if/when a
pullback ever occurs. Also, should we continue higher will
the 401(k) system buy back in at a higher level??
Sort of a "medium picture discussion". Thanks!!
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Big picture discussion
Posted by matt on 11th of Jan 2018 at 05:09 pm
$INDU - Chart Link - here's the long term quarterly chart that I've shown for the past year. Early last year I discussed the secular bull and bear cycles and the ADX indicator when it would go over 30, the past two secular bull cycles entered their second phases and ramped much higher.
One might argue, well we've been in a bull market now for almost 9 years, so this couldn't happen. Yes we have, however look at the past to secular cycles, they all had their bear market bottoms typically 8 - 10 years BEFORE the ADX went over 30. The ADX going over 30 was about mid cycle only for those last two secular bull markets. In the first secular bull, ADX went over 30 in 1953 and the market didn't top out until 1966. During the last secular bull market ADX went over 30 in 1986, well that market didn't top until 2000.
Anyway I'm not saying this is the case this time, but always keep an open mind.
Even if this were the case now, there will of course be pullbacks along the way, but more short term bear markets, nothing like 2008, and generally only lasting 1 quarter to a year.
we'll see how this thing unfolds.....
short term though the market is quite extended - remember this is big picture stuff, Nothing to do with short term now.
I understand your take on
Posted by ducati on 12th of Jan 2018 at 11:05 am
I understand your take on the long term but any measure this short term or not so short term melt up is very rare. There needs to be more discussion on how this is to resolve in the weeks ahead
http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20180106-1.html Well, here's one answer. See
Posted by stevieb294 on 12th of Jan 2018 at 11:27 am
http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20180106-1.html
Well, here's one answer. See Murphys E-wave discussion, chart #2.
interesting discussion, thanks for sharing.
Posted by morton7 on 12th of Jan 2018 at 10:24 am
interesting discussion, thanks for sharing.
hey matt- can you show
Posted by pep8261 on 11th of Jan 2018 at 06:05 pm
hey matt- can you show an update on the 401(k) / monthly ES exhaustion short tonight (with TS stats)?
I'm interested to see what levels its looking for if/when a pullback ever occurs. Also, should we continue higher will the 401(k) system buy back in at a higher level??
Sort of a "medium picture discussion". Thanks!!