My only curiosity is, how much did capital gains neutralize this
disparity in seasonality? It is something to consider at least in
the staunch difference in the numbers. Obviously capital gains are
less far apart these days...
Buy and hold makes sense for many because of the tax
implications working in favor of those retail investors.
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2016 at 08:50 am
This is a great question/point. (For an IRA, of course, it
doesn't matter.) I would think selling at, or just out of, the
money vertical call spreads during the bad six months would be a
good approach, but you'd need to research and develop a specific
set of rules. Or, sell SSO or UPRO (possibly on margin). So it
becomes more complicated if you want to negate the tax
disincentive.
as far as tax issue I don't see a problem, most people have
401K's at jobs that they have invested in mutual funds by Fidelity
or some other place that their company works with. They have
the liberty to move funds to other products (usually once a month)
such as money market or bonds without incurring tax because it's
already in a 401K, by selling out of a market fund that is tied to
the SPX or large cap stocks does not mean removing the funds from
the tax free account, just moving to money market or bonds inside
the tax free vehicle
it's not meant as a system guys - listen to what I state I
actually say in the newsletter, I say that I don't consider this as
a system, but as an interesting statistic anomaly that shows how
most of the gains in the market have been made in one 6 month time
frame of the year.
you probably didn't listen to that part of the newsletter
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Love the work you put into this,
Updated Sell in May Stats for fun
Posted by zitron on 24th of Apr 2016 at 10:52 pm
My only curiosity is, how much did capital gains neutralize this disparity in seasonality? It is something to consider at least in the staunch difference in the numbers. Obviously capital gains are less far apart these days...
Buy and hold makes sense for many because of the tax implications working in favor of those retail investors.
This is a great question/point.
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2016 at 08:50 am
This is a great question/point. (For an IRA, of course, it doesn't matter.) I would think selling at, or just out of, the money vertical call spreads during the bad six months would be a good approach, but you'd need to research and develop a specific set of rules. Or, sell SSO or UPRO (possibly on margin). So it becomes more complicated if you want to negate the tax disincentive.
as far as tax issue
Posted by matt on 25th of Apr 2016 at 09:35 am
as far as tax issue I don't see a problem, most people have 401K's at jobs that they have invested in mutual funds by Fidelity or some other place that their company works with. They have the liberty to move funds to other products (usually once a month) such as money market or bonds without incurring tax because it's already in a 401K, by selling out of a market fund that is tied to the SPX or large cap stocks does not mean removing the funds from the tax free account, just moving to money market or bonds inside the tax free vehicle
Of course, and same w/
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2016 at 09:37 am
Of course, and same w/ IRA. Just agreeing w/ zitron that for a regular account it's a factor.
it's not meant as a
Posted by matt on 25th of Apr 2016 at 12:06 am
it's not meant as a system guys - listen to what I state I actually say in the newsletter, I say that I don't consider this as a system, but as an interesting statistic anomaly that shows how most of the gains in the market have been made in one 6 month time frame of the year.
you probably didn't listen to that part of the newsletter