Traders seems to be willing to sell body parts to be long this
market ... dips get bought like there's no tomorrow ... this won't
reverse easily ... path of least resistance is up ... until it's
not ... I do play inverse ETF in this market, but very tight
leash and no margin for errors ... and very short term in
nature.... this is probably one of the most hated run :D ...
oh I forgot, so many fundies trailing the SPX ... they will
be chasing this like a dog chase a car down the street ...
Posted by sbaxman111 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 03:01 pm
At close to 3:00 my RUT 60 min chart is providing a
statistically reliable SHORT signal. RSI-2, RSI-4 (is close to 90),
and RSI-14 are well above their extreme lines. CCI-20 has been
above +200. %B 20,2 has been above 1.00. The ADX 2 is above 80.
Both ULT indicators are above the upper extreme lines. Aroon 5 is
at a max of 100, and my two favorite custom stochastic indicators
have both been above their upper lines all day. This combination of
indicators provides for a likely reversal. Of course, 60 min
overbought conditions like this can certainly give way to profit
taking in the last hour of the day and wipe out the end of day sell
signal.
mia yes perfect bounce off support of that channel, however
unless you had that chart in front of you this morning with plans
to watch that channel line and react on it, it's tough to make that
call right in the morning.
Best thing for me is to have my charts prepared for the next day
along with thoughts and even written comments on my notebook such
as: watch SPX trendline here, react and buy if this occurs or sell
if that occurs, basically I find that if I try and make trading
decisions ahead of time it's easier for me, vs in the heat of the
moment when emotions might be high. I realize that's easier
said than done and you can't plan for everything, but it's also why
they say one should keep a trading journal and try to write your
ideas and plan of attack. And again the morning gaps are
tough at times because I think those are the times when we are the
most emotional and objective trading decisions are the hardest.
Unless we had planned for it charts ahead of time to with
trading decisions pre made to react on
Matt -- I agree with you completely -- the more I work at
creating specific notes ahead of time for actions to take if
certain things occur, the better I do in the heat of the moment. I
do keep a trading journal and I find that when I get lazy about my
journal I usually regret it. Thanks for talking about this!
puma - one thing we've all learned about trading is that since
we are humans and not robots, a huge part of trading is emotions,
discipline, etc. The charts and technicals are actually the easy
part, I'd say the emotional aspect is actually the biggest limiting
factor for most people after they initially learn some rudimentary
TA. I've seen so many crazy smart people, genius IQ's who
just can't trade, they understand the charts and technicals, but at
the end of the day can't trade worth a damn) because of their
emotion and/or lack of discipline. And I see average Joe or normal
smart people who trade very very well. Trading is not about
how smart you are guys!!!
While this site focuses on charts and TA, this other side is
just as big. I remember one website (the guy was nuts though
Steve remembers him) had a trading psychologist who would do
articles for his site.
over the years I've written various rants on this subject, I
should one day put them together into a series.
Even though systems have their limitations, especially coded
ones because it's very difficult to code what one sees on a chart,
systems generally do better than most folks because they do have a
discipline to them, stops, targets, entries, vs trading willy nilly
like so many do.
Most great traders I know, even if they scoff at systems,
actually trade their one system in a way even if they don't know
it. They have set things that they look for, set conditions,
and good risk management, repeatable things they have noticed over
the years that work for them - that's a system. You don't
trade successfully without a systematic approach. Steve here
for example I know he says that he's not a systems guy, but I
guarantee if you were to examine his trading during the day, you
would find it very systematic.
There's clearly an art to trading as well, the art comes in
after having looked at many 1000's of charts over many years, you
start to develop a feel, or six sense for a chart that you can't
always easily explain to others, but you know it and use it in your
trading. For example the Stochastic trades that I have been
showing, the entries are very methodical, however the stops at
times can be adjusted slightly depending on how the overall chart
looks like, and for targets, same thing, there are times when you
want to trailing your stops up and give a little room and other
times when you hit and run take little profits.
anyway enough of the Frailey rant, I need to get back to
newsletter
Matt, I agree with you completely on the psychological issues
being the biggest. We're on the same page. Ultimately we all
integrate the technicals with our own psyches and come up with ways
to trade that work for US. It's always personal in some way or the
other, how we each do this thing. There are no magic formulas, just
helpful patterns that repeat often enough to give us edges.
This morning, I looked more clueless than a Deer watching
upcoming cars on high beam ... then when I realized it was
moving, I just watched .... I took a small SPXL trade at some
point, but nothing worth much ... There was so much noise
about oil, etc...
Right on. Been selling the inverse ETFs for $25-$75 pops, if I
don't I will lose my @$$. Frustrating. By the time I am over
flipping pennies the real move will come. Will anyone send me a
private message when they believe that move is here. Over it!
I was long SPXS (Short S&P) from last Friday .... got
stopped out break even ... shorting this mkt has been like "pi****
in the wind" .... lol ... but starting long in this extended
market doesn't fit my risk / reward profile either ... so
basically i'm collecting free samples at the doctor's office when
I'm lucky until something pans out ... most of my long has been
peeled off ... the voice inside my head tells me ....
"Patience little grasshopper ... patience.... "
lol
IWM Resistance (Seems like)
Posted by zitron on 18th of Apr 2016 at 02:33 pm
Anyone here forecast why the RUT would blow thru here?
Once we get above the 200 seems like a trading vehicle wants to test the upside, especially after a break, back test and bar higher.
Higher.... ?
Posted by mla127 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 02:38 pm
Traders seems to be willing to sell body parts to be long this market ... dips get bought like there's no tomorrow ... this won't reverse easily ... path of least resistance is up ... until it's not ... I do play inverse ETF in this market, but very tight leash and no margin for errors ... and very short term in nature.... this is probably one of the most hated run :D ... oh I forgot, so many fundies trailing the SPX ... they will be chasing this like a dog chase a car down the street ...
RUT/IWM
Posted by sbaxman111 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 03:01 pm
At close to 3:00 my RUT 60 min chart is providing a statistically reliable SHORT signal. RSI-2, RSI-4 (is close to 90), and RSI-14 are well above their extreme lines. CCI-20 has been above +200. %B 20,2 has been above 1.00. The ADX 2 is above 80. Both ULT indicators are above the upper extreme lines. Aroon 5 is at a max of 100, and my two favorite custom stochastic indicators have both been above their upper lines all day. This combination of indicators provides for a likely reversal. Of course, 60 min overbought conditions like this can certainly give way to profit taking in the last hour of the day and wipe out the end of day sell signal.
So, it's a 60 min
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Apr 2016 at 03:48 pm
So, it's a 60 min chart, but an EOD trigger?
Correct - I'm looking for
Posted by sbaxman111 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 04:29 pm
Correct - I'm looking for certain short-term overbought/oversold reversion triggering conditions that show up at the end of the day.
IWM
Posted by mla127 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 03:34 pm
This morning dip was a screaming buy at support for a trade at least .... I guess I was too deaf to here it .... lol
mia yes perfect bounce off
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2016 at 03:40 pm
mia yes perfect bounce off support of that channel, however unless you had that chart in front of you this morning with plans to watch that channel line and react on it, it's tough to make that call right in the morning.
Best thing for me is to have my charts prepared for the next day along with thoughts and even written comments on my notebook such as: watch SPX trendline here, react and buy if this occurs or sell if that occurs, basically I find that if I try and make trading decisions ahead of time it's easier for me, vs in the heat of the moment when emotions might be high. I realize that's easier said than done and you can't plan for everything, but it's also why they say one should keep a trading journal and try to write your ideas and plan of attack. And again the morning gaps are tough at times because I think those are the times when we are the most emotional and objective trading decisions are the hardest. Unless we had planned for it charts ahead of time to with trading decisions pre made to react on
Matt -- I agree with
Posted by puma on 18th of Apr 2016 at 05:18 pm
Matt -- I agree with you completely -- the more I work at creating specific notes ahead of time for actions to take if certain things occur, the better I do in the heat of the moment. I do keep a trading journal and I find that when I get lazy about my journal I usually regret it. Thanks for talking about this!
puma - one thing we've
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2016 at 07:49 pm
puma - one thing we've all learned about trading is that since we are humans and not robots, a huge part of trading is emotions, discipline, etc. The charts and technicals are actually the easy part, I'd say the emotional aspect is actually the biggest limiting factor for most people after they initially learn some rudimentary TA. I've seen so many crazy smart people, genius IQ's who just can't trade, they understand the charts and technicals, but at the end of the day can't trade worth a damn) because of their emotion and/or lack of discipline. And I see average Joe or normal smart people who trade very very well. Trading is not about how smart you are guys!!!
While this site focuses on charts and TA, this other side is just as big. I remember one website (the guy was nuts though Steve remembers him) had a trading psychologist who would do articles for his site.
over the years I've written various rants on this subject, I should one day put them together into a series.
Even though systems have their limitations, especially coded ones because it's very difficult to code what one sees on a chart, systems generally do better than most folks because they do have a discipline to them, stops, targets, entries, vs trading willy nilly like so many do.
Most great traders I know, even if they scoff at systems, actually trade their one system in a way even if they don't know it. They have set things that they look for, set conditions, and good risk management, repeatable things they have noticed over the years that work for them - that's a system. You don't trade successfully without a systematic approach. Steve here for example I know he says that he's not a systems guy, but I guarantee if you were to examine his trading during the day, you would find it very systematic.
There's clearly an art to trading as well, the art comes in after having looked at many 1000's of charts over many years, you start to develop a feel, or six sense for a chart that you can't always easily explain to others, but you know it and use it in your trading. For example the Stochastic trades that I have been showing, the entries are very methodical, however the stops at times can be adjusted slightly depending on how the overall chart looks like, and for targets, same thing, there are times when you want to trailing your stops up and give a little room and other times when you hit and run take little profits.
anyway enough of the Frailey rant, I need to get back to newsletter
One thing we've learned is...
Posted by stevieb294 on 19th of Apr 2016 at 07:21 am
"Trading is ninety percent mental. The other half is physical." - Yogi Berra
You should rant more often
Posted by payday on 19th of Apr 2016 at 05:11 am
You should rant more often Matt. Very well said and unfortunately, most newbies won't get this. In fact, I think most people won't get this.
Matt, I agree with you
Posted by puma on 18th of Apr 2016 at 08:14 pm
Matt, I agree with you completely on the psychological issues being the biggest. We're on the same page. Ultimately we all integrate the technicals with our own psyches and come up with ways to trade that work for US. It's always personal in some way or the other, how we each do this thing. There are no magic formulas, just helpful patterns that repeat often enough to give us edges.
Nicely said, Matt.
Posted by stevieb294 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 08:14 pm
Thanks!
This morning, I looked more
Posted by mla127 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 03:43 pm
This morning, I looked more clueless than a Deer watching upcoming cars on high beam ... then when I realized it was moving, I just watched .... I took a small SPXL trade at some point, but nothing worth much ... There was so much noise about oil, etc...
Thank you kindly.
Posted by zitron on 18th of Apr 2016 at 02:41 pm
Right on. Been selling the inverse ETFs for $25-$75 pops, if I don't I will lose my @$$. Frustrating. By the time I am over flipping pennies the real move will come. Will anyone send me a private message when they believe that move is here. Over it!
IWM...
Posted by mla127 on 18th of Apr 2016 at 02:49 pm
I was long SPXS (Short S&P) from last Friday .... got stopped out break even ... shorting this mkt has been like "pi**** in the wind" .... lol ... but starting long in this extended market doesn't fit my risk / reward profile either ... so basically i'm collecting free samples at the doctor's office when I'm lucky until something pans out ... most of my long has been peeled off ... the voice inside my head tells me .... "Patience little grasshopper ... patience.... " lol
Patience. I hear yah
Posted by zitron on 18th of Apr 2016 at 02:50 pm
Bought XLE and DIS at the open and sold them way too early. Could you pass some patience over here!