Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Mar 2014 at 03:43 pm
Following the very simple 3 consecutive down day and down
end of month strategies combined together, the ADRE has produced a
very nice return so far in 2014. ADRE has been trading below the
200 day line for all of 2014 so far. I have taken all of the 3 down
day trades, and also took the 3 consecutive up days as shorts
because the index is below the 200 day line. Trade dates are as
follows:
1-6 Long, 1-10 Cash, 1-21 Long, 1-22 Cash, 1-27 Long, 1-28
Cash, 1-31 Long (EOM), 2-7 Cash, 2-21 Short, 2-25 Cash, 2-28 Long
(EOM), 3-4 Cash, 3-6 Short, 3-10 Cash. Using the
200% leveraged ADRE L/S funds this approach should be up more than
15% at the end of today. And.....you would have been in the market
for just 17 trading days.
The Long ADRE fund will be down approx -12.6% for 2014 by
the end of the day.
But I just heard Jack Bogle say that investors should never
leave the market - we should just stay in...no matter what comes
along. Duh!!!!!!!
Interesting! What's your condition to going to cash, I wonder? I
don't have your chart of ADRE to check the dates you listed to
figure out your strategy. Thanks for answering!
Posted by pimacanyon on 10th of Mar 2014 at 04:05 pm
Bogle may have said that, but that's in the context of his
strategy of rebalancing. Rebalancing the portfolio on some
regular basis (mothly, quarterly, yearly) is what makes his
strategy of buy and hold work. It's really not buy and hold
because of the rebalancing. Every time you rebalance, you're
buying low and selling high. Over the long term, you end up
with a pretty good return for essentially no effort, no charting,
no trying to pick tops and bottoms.
They claim this strategy is not market timing. That's
true, but the rebalancing gives you the advantage of buying low and
selling high, which in a sense is a kind of market timing.
What rebalancing is: You decide what percentage of your assets
you want in stock, what percentage in bonds, what percentage in
metals or commodities. Most go with just stocks and
bonds. Say you decide for you age and risk tolerance you'll
do 50/50 and you'll rebalance every month. At the end of each
month if stocks have gone up, you sell enough to move into your
bond etf so that you're back to 50/50. So you're selling high
(stocks) and buying low (bonds). if stocks tank one month,
then when you rebalance, you sell enough bond etf and buy enough
stock etf with the proceeds to get back to 50/50. So you're
buying stocks at a discount that month. It's a brilliant strategy
in its simplicity!
Posted by pimacanyon on 10th of Mar 2014 at 07:03 pm
nope, have not back tested it, it's not a strategy I use (I'm
too old!), but if I were younger and planned to use that strategy,
then I would certainly back test before using it.
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Simple Emerging Markets Strategy
Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Mar 2014 at 03:43 pm
Following the very simple 3 consecutive down day and down end of month strategies combined together, the ADRE has produced a very nice return so far in 2014. ADRE has been trading below the 200 day line for all of 2014 so far. I have taken all of the 3 down day trades, and also took the 3 consecutive up days as shorts because the index is below the 200 day line. Trade dates are as follows:
1-6 Long, 1-10 Cash, 1-21 Long, 1-22 Cash, 1-27 Long, 1-28 Cash, 1-31 Long (EOM), 2-7 Cash, 2-21 Short, 2-25 Cash, 2-28 Long (EOM), 3-4 Cash, 3-6 Short, 3-10 Cash. Using the 200% leveraged ADRE L/S funds this approach should be up more than 15% at the end of today. And.....you would have been in the market for just 17 trading days.
The Long ADRE fund will be down approx -12.6% for 2014 by the end of the day.
But I just heard Jack Bogle say that investors should never leave the market - we should just stay in...no matter what comes along. Duh!!!!!!!
Title: Simple Emerging Markets Strategy Interesting!
Posted by junkie on 10th of Mar 2014 at 10:40 pm
Interesting! What's your condition to going to cash, I wonder? I don't have your chart of ADRE to check the dates you listed to figure out your strategy. Thanks for answering!
Bogle
Posted by pimacanyon on 10th of Mar 2014 at 04:05 pm
Bogle may have said that, but that's in the context of his strategy of rebalancing. Rebalancing the portfolio on some regular basis (mothly, quarterly, yearly) is what makes his strategy of buy and hold work. It's really not buy and hold because of the rebalancing. Every time you rebalance, you're buying low and selling high. Over the long term, you end up with a pretty good return for essentially no effort, no charting, no trying to pick tops and bottoms.
They claim this strategy is not market timing. That's true, but the rebalancing gives you the advantage of buying low and selling high, which in a sense is a kind of market timing.
What rebalancing is: You decide what percentage of your assets you want in stock, what percentage in bonds, what percentage in metals or commodities. Most go with just stocks and bonds. Say you decide for you age and risk tolerance you'll do 50/50 and you'll rebalance every month. At the end of each month if stocks have gone up, you sell enough to move into your bond etf so that you're back to 50/50. So you're selling high (stocks) and buying low (bonds). if stocks tank one month, then when you rebalance, you sell enough bond etf and buy enough stock etf with the proceeds to get back to 50/50. So you're buying stocks at a discount that month. It's a brilliant strategy in its simplicity!
...have you backtested your "rebalancing" strategy?
Posted by vicky on 10th of Mar 2014 at 04:58 pm
...have you backtested your "rebalancing" strategy?
bogle and rebalancing
Posted by pimacanyon on 10th of Mar 2014 at 07:03 pm
nope, have not back tested it, it's not a strategy I use (I'm too old!), but if I were younger and planned to use that strategy, then I would certainly back test before using it.