I watch the Gold Commercials closely and they are very near
lowest short position on record which is bullish. They have been
very right all the way and are posted by Matt on his reports. Watch
them as I feel miners are very overdone and are being sold as tax
loss candidates. That should provide a good year end rally
also.
remember last week the commercial net short on gold was still
52K, the low in July was 18K, so it could still fall quite a bit,
though I'm sure it's fallen a lot this week, we won't know until
Friday and even then, the data is 3 days delayed and only includes
until Tuesday, it won't show the effect of gold down on Wed, and
Thur
actually the commercial net short was 28K last week, I'm sure
it's dipped way down, the 52K was from the previous week.
However here's an interesting point that I've mentioned probably
a year ago: what happens when it goes negative and flips?
I've stated this before, I've checked the COT data before the
2001 bottom and it was flipped - my point is, that could be
confirmation of a bear market - as the commercial net short was not
'net short' during the last gold bear market but net positve
fyi, McClellan's weekly missive is about GOLD COT data. looking
for a bounce akin to back in June 2013 when COT data was at
similiar levels.
"...One of the big fears that is voiced about gold is that the
presumptive end to QE will be bad for gold prices because the Fed
will stop printing excess money. But what those voices seem to
forget is that QE has not been all that helpful to gold over the
past couple of years. Gold topped at $1900/oz in 2011 when the
Fed's balance sheet was smaller than it is today, and that increase
in the balance sheet since then has not stopped gold from falling.
So if the end of QE is really a bad factor for gold, then why was
the continuation of QE since 2011 not helpful for gold?..."
Have to chime in here as I have been burned so many times
looking at fundamental data to make a prognostication about the
future. Its a fools game. Cot or no cot the chart is ugly and until
it changes. A break below 1200 on gold should trigger large sell
orders. The miners should follow suit.
GDX my scenario will be one more flush down as soon as tomorrow with big job number. Commercials are ready and we are close to oversold on daily chart. Good luck to all.
Posted by rbreese on 5th of Dec 2013 at 04:01 pm
And then what rbreese? A
Posted by sbwoman on 5th of Dec 2013 at 04:03 pm
And then what rbreese? A bounce or does the flush just drain out to the sea?
I watch the Gold Commercials
Posted by rbreese on 5th of Dec 2013 at 04:07 pm
I watch the Gold Commercials closely and they are very near lowest short position on record which is bullish. They have been very right all the way and are posted by Matt on his reports. Watch them as I feel miners are very overdone and are being sold as tax loss candidates. That should provide a good year end rally also.
remember last week the commercial
Posted by matt on 5th of Dec 2013 at 04:09 pm
remember last week the commercial net short on gold was still 52K, the low in July was 18K, so it could still fall quite a bit, though I'm sure it's fallen a lot this week, we won't know until Friday and even then, the data is 3 days delayed and only includes until Tuesday, it won't show the effect of gold down on Wed, and Thur
actually the commercial net short
Posted by matt on 5th of Dec 2013 at 04:53 pm
actually the commercial net short was 28K last week, I'm sure it's dipped way down, the 52K was from the previous week.
However here's an interesting point that I've mentioned probably a year ago: what happens when it goes negative and flips?
I've stated this before, I've checked the COT data before the 2001 bottom and it was flipped - my point is, that could be confirmation of a bear market - as the commercial net short was not 'net short' during the last gold bear market but net positve
COT data - GOLD
Posted by hazbin1 on 6th of Dec 2013 at 03:03 pm
fyi, McClellan's weekly missive is about GOLD COT data. looking for a bounce akin to back in June 2013 when COT data was at similiar levels.
"...One of the big fears that is voiced about gold is that the presumptive end to QE will be bad for gold prices because the Fed will stop printing excess money. But what those voices seem to forget is that QE has not been all that helpful to gold over the past couple of years. Gold topped at $1900/oz in 2011 when the Fed's balance sheet was smaller than it is today, and that increase in the balance sheet since then has not stopped gold from falling. So if the end of QE is really a bad factor for gold, then why was the continuation of QE since 2011 not helpful for gold?..."
good trading.
Have to chime in here
Posted by muslhead on 5th of Dec 2013 at 05:49 pm
Have to chime in here as I have been burned so many times looking at fundamental data to make a prognostication about the future. Its a fools game. Cot or no cot the chart is ugly and until it changes. A break below 1200 on gold should trigger large sell orders. The miners should follow suit.
Thanks for your heads up.
Posted by rbreese on 5th of Dec 2013 at 06:29 pm
Thanks for your heads up.
Spot on young fellow that
Posted by rbreese on 5th of Dec 2013 at 04:11 pm
Spot on young fellow that is why I feel one more good flush may do it. Thanks.
yeah but what about the
Posted by rikkwan on 6th of Dec 2013 at 01:37 am
yeah but what about the down move on the US Dollar