I really would appreciate if you could mention anything about
bonds in the newsletter. I believe that US-government bonds (TLT,
ZB-Future) are one of the bigger houses of cards out there waiting
for a break down sooner or later. I'm not sure (or I don't think
so...) if there is a technical pattern on the daily. On the 60 min
there could be something like an ascending triangle. That would
mean another (maybe last) push higher.
yes and take a look at munis and junk bonds. That is where
the real destruction will happen IMO. I still believe
Meredith Whitney's call on Munis is correct, but obviously too
early. That last parabolic run-up recently on dividend haven
buying in MUB might have been a significant blow-off top. I
really think Munis could be a disaster on the order of sub-prime
mortgages. Same exact type of bubble -- I don't know the
relative sizes of either, but nearly identical: rates too low for
too long; ratings agencies not accurately assessing risk of
default (there have been a number of reports of this).
MUB.... but of course it has the huge dividend. That's the
thing with munis as well, likely a very one-sided trade with nobody
daring to short them. If you read Michael Lewis' Big Short, I
bet there are some guys like that figuring out how to do a CDS or
something like that. I'm just an amateur, I wouldn't have the
slightest idea how to do that.
After being in finance for just about 25 years and seeing the
results of a couple nasty recessions, I wonder just how long this
near zero rate bond market can hold up.
Yes we have multiple layers of government buying bonds and the
fed printing like mad. But risk? Where is the weighing of
risk?
Gold and silver will become the new bonds (at zero percent) soon
in my view, as they can't be manipulated. So what will
attract money to bonds once gold and silver start to really move
up?
Probably much higher bond yields - and then we see major market
dislocation IMO.
Posted by royal flush on 18th of Nov 2012 at 09:47 am
I am trying to figure out how to back test VIX front month
and back month futures then I can try to figure
contango/backwardation. The purpose of which is to optimize my
swing trades by trading either a stock index ETF or a VIX ETF. For
example currently it would be beneficial to be long XIV as opposed
to TNA. Any assistance in this would be greatly appreciated.
Bonds
Posted by zwyss on 17th of Nov 2012 at 02:04 pm
Matt/Steve
I really would appreciate if you could mention anything about bonds in the newsletter. I believe that US-government bonds (TLT, ZB-Future) are one of the bigger houses of cards out there waiting for a break down sooner or later. I'm not sure (or I don't think so...) if there is a technical pattern on the daily. On the 60 min there could be something like an ascending triangle. That would mean another (maybe last) push higher.
Opinions?
yes and take a look
Posted by kalinm on 17th of Nov 2012 at 06:16 pm
yes and take a look at munis and junk bonds. That is where the real destruction will happen IMO. I still believe Meredith Whitney's call on Munis is correct, but obviously too early. That last parabolic run-up recently on dividend haven buying in MUB might have been a significant blow-off top. I really think Munis could be a disaster on the order of sub-prime mortgages. Same exact type of bubble -- I don't know the relative sizes of either, but nearly identical: rates too low for too long; ratings agencies not accurately assessing risk of default (there have been a number of reports of this).
kalinm How can someone trade Munis?
Posted by zwyss on 19th of Nov 2012 at 04:38 am
kalinm
How can someone trade Munis? Are there some Futures /ETFs?
MUB.... but of course it
Posted by kalinm on 19th of Nov 2012 at 11:12 am
MUB.... but of course it has the huge dividend. That's the thing with munis as well, likely a very one-sided trade with nobody daring to short them. If you read Michael Lewis' Big Short, I bet there are some guys like that figuring out how to do a CDS or something like that. I'm just an amateur, I wouldn't have the slightest idea how to do that.
A Bond Market dislocation will cause "the big one"
Posted by pwb8 on 18th of Nov 2012 at 12:15 am
After being in finance for just about 25 years and seeing the results of a couple nasty recessions, I wonder just how long this near zero rate bond market can hold up.
Yes we have multiple layers of government buying bonds and the fed printing like mad. But risk? Where is the weighing of risk?
Gold and silver will become the new bonds (at zero percent) soon in my view, as they can't be manipulated. So what will attract money to bonds once gold and silver start to really move up?
Probably much higher bond yields - and then we see major market dislocation IMO.
On Jan 1, gold becomes
Posted by steveo on 18th of Nov 2012 at 11:34 pm
On Jan 1, gold becomes a First Class Asset, right now it is 3rd class. research that, it is big.
Back test VIX front month and back month futures
Posted by royal flush on 18th of Nov 2012 at 09:47 am
I am trying to figure out how to back test VIX front month and back month futures then I can try to figure contango/backwardation. The purpose of which is to optimize my swing trades by trading either a stock index ETF or a VIX ETF. For example currently it would be beneficial to be long XIV as opposed to TNA. Any assistance in this would be greatly appreciated.
TBT
Posted by 8899 on 17th of Nov 2012 at 05:09 pm
matt said he would go over TBT on the commod newsletter this weekend which is 2x short of the 30 yr bond