Posted by falcon5678 on 5th of Jul 2012 at 12:34 pm
In our case I don't think it is so much that reversion to the
mean is easier to handle psychologically - it's that the system
isn't performing. Personally I don't mind being wrong for a
bit when I know that I'm backed by a system that works over
time. Unfortunately this one hasn't for a
year. Think about it - if it were a momentum
system - if it's right for awhile but then gives it all back and
then loses it's almost worse. A momentum system with
the same losing track record over the past year would have
been more painful in my opinion, or at the least not any better
psychologically. A system that is profitable is what we
want because making money gives you confidence to brave the ups and
downs. Right now we don't have that confidence.
Sigh...
Posted by sschulman on 3rd of Jul 2012 at 11:27 am
Sigh.... I closed out my position at yesterday's close. Typical emotional trader - cut profits short. Well, at least it was a nice profit. :-)
Just as I was saying
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Jul 2012 at 09:03 am
Just as I was saying - you are looking pretty smart this morning!
sigh
Posted by drmelillo on 5th of Jul 2012 at 05:18 pm
I sold out today took the profit
It's not yet clear that
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Jul 2012 at 10:12 pm
It's not yet clear that you won't have beat the system, however.
In our case I don't
Posted by falcon5678 on 5th of Jul 2012 at 12:34 pm
In our case I don't think it is so much that reversion to the mean is easier to handle psychologically - it's that the system isn't performing. Personally I don't mind being wrong for a bit when I know that I'm backed by a system that works over time. Unfortunately this one hasn't for a year. Think about it - if it were a momentum system - if it's right for awhile but then gives it all back and then loses it's almost worse. A momentum system with the same losing track record over the past year would have been more painful in my opinion, or at the least not any better psychologically. A system that is profitable is what we want because making money gives you confidence to brave the ups and downs. Right now we don't have that confidence.
Yes! Well said.
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Jul 2012 at 04:07 pm
Yes! Well said.