Matt has gone over this before when the system first launched
but there are different entries based on conditions and that can
also affect scale-ins. Otherwise just eyeballing it I think
there could have been a 5th entry (ceteris paribus) if not Monday
at then close then likely yesterday (Tuesday).
Please realize that's just assuming we are holding everything
equal and just taking the parameters and extending them out,
nothing official.
when the system puts on the first trade it must "see" something
that directs it. why is it continuing to execute positions as
it continues to be wrong?
Posted by sschulman on 16th of May 2012 at 04:24 pm
We know that the main criteria is either oversold
conditions to buy, or overbought conditions to sell. So for our
long entries, I guess the market can get oversold, then more
oversold. etc.
Who knows. I wouldn't be surprised if there were over a dozen
factors that the system looks at. Anyhow, it might not be wrong
yet, just very early.
So many people are buying into that Sell-in-May thing. It's not
written in stone. And anyhow, someone provided a link to an article
by McLellan which pointed out that in election years, after a
Democratic president, the market Zooms up in June. McLellan's a
pretty smart guy.
Here's the link again, (but I wasn't the first person to post
it).
Posted by sschulman on 16th of May 2012 at 11:51 am
Thanks Tom. It's quite helpful to know where a 5th entry would
have been. My main trading strategy is to sell out-of-the-money
options on the ES futures. The "system" is a factor to help decide
when to roll the options and how far out-of-money to choose the
strikes.
.....Susan
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Matt has gone over this
5th Entry?
Posted by tom on 16th of May 2012 at 08:56 am
Matt has gone over this before when the system first launched but there are different entries based on conditions and that can also affect scale-ins. Otherwise just eyeballing it I think there could have been a 5th entry (ceteris paribus) if not Monday at then close then likely yesterday (Tuesday).
Please realize that's just assuming we are holding everything equal and just taking the parameters and extending them out, nothing official.
when the system puts on
Posted by biscuit on 16th of May 2012 at 01:46 pm
when the system puts on the first trade it must "see" something that directs it. why is it continuing to execute positions as it continues to be wrong?
Who knows?
Posted by sschulman on 16th of May 2012 at 04:24 pm
We know that the main criteria is either oversold conditions to buy, or overbought conditions to sell. So for our long entries, I guess the market can get oversold, then more oversold. etc.
Who knows. I wouldn't be surprised if there were over a dozen factors that the system looks at. Anyhow, it might not be wrong yet, just very early.
So many people are buying into that Sell-in-May thing. It's not written in stone. And anyhow, someone provided a link to an article by McLellan which pointed out that in election years, after a Democratic president, the market Zooms up in June. McLellan's a pretty smart guy.
Here's the link again, (but I wasn't the first person to post it).
Thanks Tom. It's quite helpful
Posted by sschulman on 16th of May 2012 at 11:51 am
Thanks Tom. It's quite helpful to know where a 5th entry would have been. My main trading strategy is to sell out-of-the-money options on the ES futures. The "system" is a factor to help decide when to roll the options and how far out-of-money to choose the strikes.
.....Susan