I feel like Steveo (Oahu trading Steve) with my catchy
titles.
But this is an interesting theory (I have no position in any
gold stocks). The way I am viewing the global asset markets
is that we are in a secular bear since 2000. Any "bull
market" in between now and 2016? is a liquidity driven asset mania
-- and there have been many. Tech, housing, oil, silver,
gold, tech (echo), housing (echo). Wanna guess the next echo
bubble? I would bet on oil!
Seems that there reaches a point of maximum leverage and credit
saturation. Everybody who wants free money will have it and
allocate it to certain sectors. Near the end, a mania will
erupt (in 2008, it was oil). The final contract that traded
at $150 also marked the beginning of massive de-levering (to the
day). What got de-levered? Gold stocks -- badly.
Why? Not too sure -- they are a small market and any
institution with a gold stock portfolio probably isn't too
concerned about them.
Fast forward to the tech echo bubble -- 2012. Fueled by 3
years of Fed policies designed to force institutions into investing
in equities, QQQ make a perfect 50% fibonacci tag of the bear
market decline in 2001 on April 3, 2012. With a six month
straight run-up in big name tech stocks (and some tag alongs), the
final basket of tech stocks peaked out on April 2nd. Gold
stocks started tanking April 3rd.... big time. Again, no clue
why and I'm scratching my head now as I was in the summer of
2008. I honestly don't know -- I suspect a
large hedge fund will gladly ditch some Newmont mining to protect
their shares of their "precious" -- AAPL.
Because of this extreme similarity in the two "peaks", I am
operating on the theory that there will be plenty of sellers of
gold stocks in the weeks to come, and other markets have a VERY
limited time frame before de-levering and massive liquidations take
place.
kalinm, interesting observations. We will see. Every
time I think there's going to be serious selling (high volume,
dramatic decline), something comes along and negates it. Not
many talking heads (e.g., cnbc guests, for what they're worth) are
predicting such a sell-off, although I notice Joe Terranova seems
to see downside risk everywhere.
Just be careful, I wouldn't bet anything, much less the farm (or
even the chicken coup) on the sell-off prediction. Or, at the
very least, be sure you short into resistance w/ a tight stop!
Shorting at Tuesday's high on the $NDX was basically shorting at
the 50% fib retrace level (of the entire bear market decline).
I see a lot of people thinking a last rally to 1480 or so;
that would mean the QQQ (presumeably) to new highs? I'm not
seeing that with the way AAPL is acting. The reaction of the
$NDX off that 50% fib retrace really caught my attention.
Also, important tops tend to happen with the majority
expecting that one last move (March 2009 bottom, Aug 2011 top).
The other thing is that this market has crashed in each of the
last four years. Yes, crashed -- only to be revived by QE1,
QE2 and Twist. Twist is ending. Is it that easy?
Seems to co-incidental that May 1st has marked an important
top in the last two years, and maybe it was this year ($INDU made
multi-year high today). Just as I thought "Santa Rally" was
too easy, I overthought it. The charts are showing multiple
warnings. And now we are getting serious shots over our bow
(Denninger points this out): GMCR, RIMM, FSLR, NFLX, CS, DB --
major companies not just casually selling off, but outright
crashing.
One well-known market service that I had a trial subscription
with issued an upside SPX target of 1449 a month or more ago.
When we recently regained 1392, he issued a buy signal for
the SPX. I can't name them, due to the agreement w/ them for
subscribers (even trial memberships), but it's a well known person
who worked for a major financial house for years before retiring a
few years ago. Anyway, if we do reach a higher high, I will
be looking to take a modest short position.
there are quite a few "services" calling for 1550 - 1600 SPX.
Marketclub, Long Short Timing, TrendTimer (bullish, no target) and
many more I don't feel like remembering (hurts my head). What
makes your guy worth considering? Give us a hint... hopefully it's
not Prechter
harveykoss- I have
not read anything about it, but I remember Steve telling me that
Goldman Sachs is expecting a miss around 125, again I have not
verified that and Steve is away with his kids tonight to a game.
The last report was a disappointment last last
month so obviously it will be heavily looked at this time. I
guess we'll see...
Kind of funny that there is so much anticipation for this
number, but it is proven to be inaccurate (at best), revised after
the fact, and old news. Biderman's firm, Trimtabs, gets daily
employment numbers from publicly available tax receipt info.
His numbers never jive with the "announcement".... but they
can fudge and revise anyway. Here is his rant about it:
Title: What do gold stocks,
Posted by kalinm on 3rd of May 2012 at 06:39 pm
I feel like Steveo (Oahu trading Steve) with my catchy titles.
But this is an interesting theory (I have no position in any gold stocks). The way I am viewing the global asset markets is that we are in a secular bear since 2000. Any "bull market" in between now and 2016? is a liquidity driven asset mania -- and there have been many. Tech, housing, oil, silver, gold, tech (echo), housing (echo). Wanna guess the next echo bubble? I would bet on oil!
Seems that there reaches a point of maximum leverage and credit saturation. Everybody who wants free money will have it and allocate it to certain sectors. Near the end, a mania will erupt (in 2008, it was oil). The final contract that traded at $150 also marked the beginning of massive de-levering (to the day). What got de-levered? Gold stocks -- badly. Why? Not too sure -- they are a small market and any institution with a gold stock portfolio probably isn't too concerned about them.
Fast forward to the tech echo bubble -- 2012. Fueled by 3 years of Fed policies designed to force institutions into investing in equities, QQQ make a perfect 50% fibonacci tag of the bear market decline in 2001 on April 3, 2012. With a six month straight run-up in big name tech stocks (and some tag alongs), the final basket of tech stocks peaked out on April 2nd. Gold stocks started tanking April 3rd.... big time. Again, no clue why and I'm scratching my head now as I was in the summer of 2008. I honestly don't know -- I suspect a large hedge fund will gladly ditch some Newmont mining to protect their shares of their "precious" -- AAPL.
Because of this extreme similarity in the two "peaks", I am operating on the theory that there will be plenty of sellers of gold stocks in the weeks to come, and other markets have a VERY limited time frame before de-levering and massive liquidations take place.
kalinm, interesting observations. We will
Posted by frtaylor on 3rd of May 2012 at 08:17 pm
kalinm, interesting observations. We will see. Every time I think there's going to be serious selling (high volume, dramatic decline), something comes along and negates it. Not many talking heads (e.g., cnbc guests, for what they're worth) are predicting such a sell-off, although I notice Joe Terranova seems to see downside risk everywhere.
Just be careful, I wouldn't bet anything, much less the farm (or even the chicken coup) on the sell-off prediction. Or, at the very least, be sure you short into resistance w/ a tight stop!
Shorting at Tuesday's high on
Posted by kalinm on 3rd of May 2012 at 08:47 pm
Shorting at Tuesday's high on the $NDX was basically shorting at the 50% fib retrace level (of the entire bear market decline). I see a lot of people thinking a last rally to 1480 or so; that would mean the QQQ (presumeably) to new highs? I'm not seeing that with the way AAPL is acting. The reaction of the $NDX off that 50% fib retrace really caught my attention. Also, important tops tend to happen with the majority expecting that one last move (March 2009 bottom, Aug 2011 top).
The other thing is that this market has crashed in each of the last four years. Yes, crashed -- only to be revived by QE1, QE2 and Twist. Twist is ending. Is it that easy? Seems to co-incidental that May 1st has marked an important top in the last two years, and maybe it was this year ($INDU made multi-year high today). Just as I thought "Santa Rally" was too easy, I overthought it. The charts are showing multiple warnings. And now we are getting serious shots over our bow (Denninger points this out): GMCR, RIMM, FSLR, NFLX, CS, DB -- major companies not just casually selling off, but outright crashing.
One well-known market service that
Posted by frtaylor on 3rd of May 2012 at 09:02 pm
One well-known market service that I had a trial subscription with issued an upside SPX target of 1449 a month or more ago. When we recently regained 1392, he issued a buy signal for the SPX. I can't name them, due to the agreement w/ them for subscribers (even trial memberships), but it's a well known person who worked for a major financial house for years before retiring a few years ago. Anyway, if we do reach a higher high, I will be looking to take a modest short position.
Charles Nenner made that forecast
Posted by sethbru on 4th of May 2012 at 01:43 am
Charles Nenner made that forecast in a recent interview.
Guy has been nothing but
Posted by freddy123321 on 4th of May 2012 at 06:57 am
Guy has been nothing but a bear and now he is bullish. Figures.
there are quite a few
Posted by Palladin on 3rd of May 2012 at 10:42 pm
there are quite a few "services" calling for 1550 - 1600 SPX. Marketclub, Long Short Timing, TrendTimer (bullish, no target) and many more I don't feel like remembering (hurts my head). What makes your guy worth considering? Give us a hint... hopefully it's not Prechter
so is the target still
Posted by xxnileshxx on 3rd of May 2012 at 09:51 pm
so is the target still 1449 or do you have the higher number that you can share
matt we keep talking about this jobs number how big do we expect it to be????
Posted by harveykoss on 3rd of May 2012 at 08:28 pm
harveykoss- I have not read anything
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2012 at 09:02 pm
harveykoss- I have not read anything about it, but I remember Steve telling me that Goldman Sachs is expecting a miss around 125, again I have not verified that and Steve is away with his kids tonight to a game. The last report was a disappointment last last month so obviously it will be heavily looked at this time. I guess we'll see...
Kind of funny that there
Posted by kalinm on 3rd of May 2012 at 09:15 pm
Kind of funny that there is so much anticipation for this number, but it is proven to be inaccurate (at best), revised after the fact, and old news. Biderman's firm, Trimtabs, gets daily employment numbers from publicly available tax receipt info. His numbers never jive with the "announcement".... but they can fudge and revise anyway. Here is his rant about it:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/why-you-shouldnt-trust-tomorrows-bls-number
Look at vol on most
Posted by freddy123321 on 3rd of May 2012 at 06:45 pm
Look at vol on most sectors and stocks past 4 months onthis run up. Classic bear mkt, imho