In thinking of the similarities between 2008 and 2012, it was
obvious in 2008 that the world was in a recession. My
Canadian friends laughed at me -- their natural resources were
"recession proof". You greedy Americans have this coming to
you. Their resource stocks powered the $TSX to all-time
highs. Their recession proofing lasted for a while, but
eventually gave in.
2012, my Canadian friends tell me -- holy smokes, I think we are
in a recession. I say "nah, maybe you and your quirky Euro
friends do, but not where I live. We have AAPL and tech --
those are "recession proof". Our tech stocks are powering up
to all-time highs!
BTW, if this comes to fruition, I'm sure people will look back
in hindsight at CMG (and its 16 consecutive weeks up in a row to
new all-time highs) and say -- burritos? Really?
Lately I've been paying more attention to Elliot Wave Theory,
via Tony Caldaro's site. His count has us in a primary 3rd
wave, and he predicts SPX highs in 2013 of 1545-1586. If I
read his weekly chart correctly (
http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp), then his primary
wave I at 1370 (the 2011 high) is our marker for whether we
continue up in the longer term. I.e., breaking that on a
weekly chart would negate the bullish count. So, a good level
to watch on any pullback. I'm not an EW expert, though -
Steve, care to weigh in?
I think Caldaro does his site for attention.
There are real world events happening and intervnetions so normal
wave action is lessened, some EW does still work occasionally, but
not that often. Don't get carried away with
EW. My weigh in.
Seems to me it depends too on what level the wave count is.
I think those higher levels are harder to put credence in,
since world events, etc. can negate a count that's been in place
for months. But I do put credence in an intraday chart w/ a
5-wave impulse down and then a 3-wave bounce for shorting (or the
reverse, etc.). As a rank amateur I've learned that much,
anyway, from BPT.
"This time its different, I swear!"
Posted by kalinm on 5th of Apr 2012 at 05:51 pm
In thinking of the similarities between 2008 and 2012, it was obvious in 2008 that the world was in a recession. My Canadian friends laughed at me -- their natural resources were "recession proof". You greedy Americans have this coming to you. Their resource stocks powered the $TSX to all-time highs. Their recession proofing lasted for a while, but eventually gave in.
2012, my Canadian friends tell me -- holy smokes, I think we are in a recession. I say "nah, maybe you and your quirky Euro friends do, but not where I live. We have AAPL and tech -- those are "recession proof". Our tech stocks are powering up to all-time highs!
BTW, if this comes to fruition, I'm sure people will look back in hindsight at CMG (and its 16 consecutive weeks up in a row to new all-time highs) and say -- burritos? Really?
Lately I've been paying more
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Apr 2012 at 09:58 am
Lately I've been paying more attention to Elliot Wave Theory, via Tony Caldaro's site. His count has us in a primary 3rd wave, and he predicts SPX highs in 2013 of 1545-1586. If I read his weekly chart correctly ( http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp), then his primary wave I at 1370 (the 2011 high) is our marker for whether we continue up in the longer term. I.e., breaking that on a weekly chart would negate the bullish count. So, a good level to watch on any pullback. I'm not an EW expert, though - Steve, care to weigh in?
I think Caldaro does his
Posted by steveo on 6th of Apr 2012 at 05:19 pm
I think Caldaro does his site for attention. There are real world events happening and intervnetions so normal wave action is lessened, some EW does still work occasionally, but not that often. Don't get carried away with EW. My weigh in.
Seems to me it depends
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Apr 2012 at 09:46 pm
Seems to me it depends too on what level the wave count is. I think those higher levels are harder to put credence in, since world events, etc. can negate a count that's been in place for months. But I do put credence in an intraday chart w/ a 5-wave impulse down and then a 3-wave bounce for shorting (or the reverse, etc.). As a rank amateur I've learned that much, anyway, from BPT.
Yep, sometimes they are textbook
Posted by steveo on 9th of Apr 2012 at 02:27 pm
Yep, sometimes they are textbook especially on the very short timeframes.
Not sure where your canadian
Posted by freddy123321 on 6th of Apr 2012 at 08:01 am
Not sure where your canadian friends see a recession?
nice chart and I like
Posted by matt on 5th of Apr 2012 at 11:09 pm
nice chart and I like the timely annotations and illustrations on the chart. and I agree the TSX looks like a H&S pattern
Cmg Burritos are nothing special.
Posted by freddy123321 on 5th of Apr 2012 at 06:15 pm