We may be going down impulsively here today or Monday if the top
is in on SPX. If we do, we will get that famed oversold
bounce Matt keeps beating in to me! (I hear and obey....).
So, on the bounce, it seems to me it would be a smart place
to close the SPY trade. I.e., on the bounce use a 15, 30 or
60 min chart (preference Matt?) and exit when it gets overbought.
Also, watch the bounce for a clear ABC wave as well as fib
retracement levels.
Posted by billnew52 on 8th of Apr 2012 at 09:06 pm
Isn't the whole point of the system is that the strategy is
built in. There is no discretionary input allowed if one is
truly trading according to the system. The bed is made and
must be slept in.
For me, I'm taking this system one day and one trade at a time.
Especially regarding taking profits and putting in stops once
it's in the black. The system performance since trading began
last May for the single entry system is -4%, so it hasn't done very
well.
Posted by burkmere on 10th of Apr 2012 at 12:57 pm
let's be honest here...it's not a relief until it "at least"
starts performing equal to the market...so far it's not...it's
lagging the spy since it's gone live....
This is just a fact, not necessarily a criticism....yet....so
maybe you're resting easy, Susan, but so far I'm not..
Posted by sschulman on 5th of Apr 2012 at 02:03 pm
What you say makes sense. The system doesn't know about politics
and world events. Probably not about Elliottwave either. I
don't know if it knows about seasonality either, maybe it does.
For me, it's just easier to follow the system than to
try to second guess it. Several times I've used my own discretion,
with mixed results. Last couple of times, I ended up with the same
results as the system's results (after jumping in and out a few
times) but I sure had to work a lot harder for those
same results.
Finally I decided, why not just allot a certain amount
of my capital to the system. Then allot another amount
of my capital to my own discretionary trading. So much
easier.
Also a wise approach. Only thing is keeping the trades
separate when you're trading the same instrument. Have to
keep good records to show how discretionary vs. system does if
you're trading it both ways. One way is to trade SPY for one
and SSO for the other.
I just try to beat the MDY index, with that being my goal I sold
out a couple days ago based on 30 min chart. I bought back this
morning using the spy system buy signal. I will probably try and
hold until it gives a sell signal. I get busy in the summer , so I
may just get out and be out for the summer. Just one
method.
I am trying to beat the buy and hold return of owning MDY. I own
a certain number of shares, I then try to sell and buy back the
same number of shares at a lower price. If MDY is trading at 180
and I sell and then buy back at 178 then I am ahead of buy and
hold by more than 1 %. I like using MDY because it is a little more
volatile than SPY and has a better long term return then SPY.
a good strategy for closing this trade?
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Apr 2012 at 08:54 am
We may be going down impulsively here today or Monday if the top is in on SPX. If we do, we will get that famed oversold bounce Matt keeps beating in to me! (I hear and obey....). So, on the bounce, it seems to me it would be a smart place to close the SPY trade. I.e., on the bounce use a 15, 30 or 60 min chart (preference Matt?) and exit when it gets overbought. Also, watch the bounce for a clear ABC wave as well as fib retracement levels.
Matt or anybody, care to weigh in?
FRT
Predetermined
Posted by billnew52 on 8th of Apr 2012 at 09:06 pm
Isn't the whole point of the system is that the strategy is built in. There is no discretionary input allowed if one is truly trading according to the system. The bed is made and must be slept in.
For me, I'm taking this
Posted by frtaylor on 9th of Apr 2012 at 02:20 pm
For me, I'm taking this system one day and one trade at a time. Especially regarding taking profits and putting in stops once it's in the black. The system performance since trading began last May for the single entry system is -4%, so it hasn't done very well.
Exactly
Posted by sschulman on 9th of Apr 2012 at 12:35 pm
Exactly - it's such a relief to have one less thing to make decisions about. My other positions are complicated enough!
Well,...
Posted by burkmere on 10th of Apr 2012 at 12:57 pm
let's be honest here...it's not a relief until it "at least" starts performing equal to the market...so far it's not...it's lagging the spy since it's gone live....
This is just a fact, not necessarily a criticism....yet....so maybe you're resting easy, Susan, but so far I'm not..
lightweight weighing in :-)
Posted by sschulman on 5th of Apr 2012 at 02:03 pm
What you say makes sense. The system doesn't know about politics and world events. Probably not about Elliottwave either. I don't know if it knows about seasonality either, maybe it does.
For me, it's just easier to follow the system than to try to second guess it. Several times I've used my own discretion, with mixed results. Last couple of times, I ended up with the same results as the system's results (after jumping in and out a few times) but I sure had to work a lot harder for those same results.
Finally I decided, why not just allot a certain amount of my capital to the system. Then allot another amount of my capital to my own discretionary trading. So much easier.
.....Sooz
Also a wise approach. Only
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Apr 2012 at 01:51 pm
Also a wise approach. Only thing is keeping the trades separate when you're trading the same instrument. Have to keep good records to show how discretionary vs. system does if you're trading it both ways. One way is to trade SPY for one and SSO for the other.
I just try to beat
Posted by randy on 5th of Apr 2012 at 10:17 am
I just try to beat the MDY index, with that being my goal I sold out a couple days ago based on 30 min chart. I bought back this morning using the spy system buy signal. I will probably try and hold until it gives a sell signal. I get busy in the summer , so I may just get out and be out for the summer. Just one method.
Not sure what you mean
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Apr 2012 at 12:43 pm
Not sure what you mean by "beating" the MDY (S&P midcap index).
I am trying to beat
Posted by randy on 5th of Apr 2012 at 02:11 pm
I am trying to beat the buy and hold return of owning MDY. I own a certain number of shares, I then try to sell and buy back the same number of shares at a lower price. If MDY is trading at 180 and I sell and then buy back at 178 then I am ahead of buy and hold by more than 1 %. I like using MDY because it is a little more volatile than SPY and has a better long term return then SPY.
Interesting! Any way you can
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Apr 2012 at 02:55 pm
Interesting! Any way you can beat buy and hold is a good thing....
I think it is a
Posted by randy on 5th of Apr 2012 at 05:59 pm
I think it is a fact that most high paid money managers do not beat the S & P index for any length of time and I am sure they make a lot more than me.