performed as advertised? Come on, there are no guarantees
to systems, none. All that was advertised is how the system
has down in history back to 1995 and from last Nov 10 to April 10
when I had it mostly developed and had live trades on my side.
The history before last Nov was fine and it was also fine up
until May, and remember the system was mostly developed by last
Nov, so I treat the trades from Nov 10 - May as live tested trades.
That's all that was advertised, we guaranteed nothing about a
system's future, no site out there does because you just can't do
that. Any system can stop working at any time, you hope that
it continues, but no one can guarantee that.
Anyway I'll do an in-depth analysis this weekend. From
what I can see, the profit curve looks fine still. Remember
this system has like 17 years of history, so unfortunately it still
may be too early to say that it's broken, but again I'll cover that
on the weekend with my profit curve analysis.
Right now from Jan 2001, the system would be up about 8%, now
obviously we didn't release it until May, but I'm looking at the
yearly %. Back in 2005, the system only made 10% the whole
year (which was much lower then the average yearly returns), and
given the fact that we still have a few months until year's end,
the system may still end up matching that paltry 10% return.
The system had a stellar 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010,
so maybe it's just due for one of these low return years, and since
it was started nearly mid year, it didn't get the first gains from
Jan - Apr.
All I ask, is, keep your emotions at bay, this is why the
general public loses money, they get over emotional about things.
Unfortunately systems always carry a degree of risk, nothing
is guaranteed in life, but again I'll do an in-depth analysis of
the profit curve and trades this weekend with additional thoughts
about where we go from here.
Posted by shinings on 21st of Oct 2011 at 03:29 pm
By the way, i always know that this kind of system does best in
strong bull and bear market, while not so good in sideways market.
Unfortunately since launch, we have been in a sideways
(transitional) market (in longer time frame) hence the low
performance. If you look at shorter time frame, it was also at the
turning point from bull to bear that we experienced the biggest
loss for the system. Now, we may be in another transition from
bear to bull again, and i won't be surprised if the current trade
turns into a loss as well.
Am i second thinking the system? no. and i for sure could not
predict when sideways market is coming, so i let the system do its
thing. At the time i signed up, i already knew this
so i'm not emotional and won't blame the system.
Correct me if i'm wrong, Matt. I just want to know more about
the system.
Posted by shinings on 21st of Oct 2011 at 03:20 pm
Matt - very good points here. I agree that no system can ever
guarantee any results by itself.
But as the owner and seller of this SPY system, you and all of
us members are sharing something in common, that is "to make
profits off of it". In my mind, I'm completely ok with paying $ for
a system that does well. And i believe you set the price based
upon a premise, which is the 17-year backtest, which is what got me
and people here interested. However since launch, call it luck or
unluck, the performance wasn't on par with the premise it was based
on. Therefore, I think some relief on the membership fee or
something would be very much appreciated by all the members who are
all going thru difficult times. At the same time, one can argue if
the system does exceptionally well (better than the history data),
can you raise the membership fee some and will people still like
it? I don't know. I think we all ought to ask this question to
ourselves.
Again, as you can see i'm trying to be unbiased and look at the
situation from both sides. But emotions are built-in in all
human beings, and please don't take offense if any of the comments
here get "too sensitive". Ultimately, like i said, we all share
something in common - "to make profits from the system". Nobody is
trying to do anything harmful to the system (or the community
here), at least not intentionally. That's the bottom line.
BTW, can't wait to see your analysis over the weekend.
I don't think that is a fair point. I would be the first
to wish we had better results but to say "as advertised" you imply
there was some guaranteed return implied or promised and that was
never the case.
look at it from the subs viewpoint...you build a history of
performance with the system...why do you do that? because it shows
how the system has performed and that's why subs paid to use
it...well the system has underperformed during our sub..I don't see
what's wrong with my comment. It's not emotional and just states
the truth that the system has not performed as well as brkpt
thought it would..Tom just said he wishes the system had better
results...I have never griped about anything at Brkpoint so I'm not
one to be negative on the site...
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Tom the system has not
SPY System Performance vs. Market since first trade
Posted by chlo888 on 21st of Oct 2011 at 02:26 pm
Tom the system has not performed as it was advertised...that's my point..
performed as advertised? Come on,
Posted by matt on 21st of Oct 2011 at 02:43 pm
performed as advertised? Come on, there are no guarantees to systems, none. All that was advertised is how the system has down in history back to 1995 and from last Nov 10 to April 10 when I had it mostly developed and had live trades on my side. The history before last Nov was fine and it was also fine up until May, and remember the system was mostly developed by last Nov, so I treat the trades from Nov 10 - May as live tested trades. That's all that was advertised, we guaranteed nothing about a system's future, no site out there does because you just can't do that. Any system can stop working at any time, you hope that it continues, but no one can guarantee that.
Anyway I'll do an in-depth analysis this weekend. From what I can see, the profit curve looks fine still. Remember this system has like 17 years of history, so unfortunately it still may be too early to say that it's broken, but again I'll cover that on the weekend with my profit curve analysis.
Right now from Jan 2001, the system would be up about 8%, now obviously we didn't release it until May, but I'm looking at the yearly %. Back in 2005, the system only made 10% the whole year (which was much lower then the average yearly returns), and given the fact that we still have a few months until year's end, the system may still end up matching that paltry 10% return. The system had a stellar 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, so maybe it's just due for one of these low return years, and since it was started nearly mid year, it didn't get the first gains from Jan - Apr.
All I ask, is, keep your emotions at bay, this is why the general public loses money, they get over emotional about things. Unfortunately systems always carry a degree of risk, nothing is guaranteed in life, but again I'll do an in-depth analysis of the profit curve and trades this weekend with additional thoughts about where we go from here.
By the way, i always
Posted by shinings on 21st of Oct 2011 at 03:29 pm
By the way, i always know that this kind of system does best in strong bull and bear market, while not so good in sideways market. Unfortunately since launch, we have been in a sideways (transitional) market (in longer time frame) hence the low performance. If you look at shorter time frame, it was also at the turning point from bull to bear that we experienced the biggest loss for the system. Now, we may be in another transition from bear to bull again, and i won't be surprised if the current trade turns into a loss as well.
Am i second thinking the system? no. and i for sure could not predict when sideways market is coming, so i let the system do its thing. At the time i signed up, i already knew this so i'm not emotional and won't blame the system.
Correct me if i'm wrong, Matt. I just want to know more about the system.
Matt - very good points
Posted by shinings on 21st of Oct 2011 at 03:20 pm
Matt - very good points here. I agree that no system can ever guarantee any results by itself.
But as the owner and seller of this SPY system, you and all of us members are sharing something in common, that is "to make profits off of it". In my mind, I'm completely ok with paying $ for a system that does well. And i believe you set the price based upon a premise, which is the 17-year backtest, which is what got me and people here interested. However since launch, call it luck or unluck, the performance wasn't on par with the premise it was based on. Therefore, I think some relief on the membership fee or something would be very much appreciated by all the members who are all going thru difficult times. At the same time, one can argue if the system does exceptionally well (better than the history data), can you raise the membership fee some and will people still like it? I don't know. I think we all ought to ask this question to ourselves.
Again, as you can see i'm trying to be unbiased and look at the situation from both sides. But emotions are built-in in all human beings, and please don't take offense if any of the comments here get "too sensitive". Ultimately, like i said, we all share something in common - "to make profits from the system". Nobody is trying to do anything harmful to the system (or the community here), at least not intentionally. That's the bottom line.
BTW, can't wait to see your analysis over the weekend.
Cheers!
I don't think that is
Posted by tom on 21st of Oct 2011 at 02:39 pm
I don't think that is a fair point. I would be the first to wish we had better results but to say "as advertised" you imply there was some guaranteed return implied or promised and that was never the case.
look at it from the
Posted by chlo888 on 21st of Oct 2011 at 03:13 pm
look at it from the subs viewpoint...you build a history of performance with the system...why do you do that? because it shows how the system has performed and that's why subs paid to use it...well the system has underperformed during our sub..I don't see what's wrong with my comment. It's not emotional and just states the truth that the system has not performed as well as brkpt thought it would..Tom just said he wishes the system had better results...I have never griped about anything at Brkpoint so I'm not one to be negative on the site...