on the bpt newsletter, Steve puts a downside target on the .spx
of 1030 or thereabouts. That's still a ways away from where we are
now. I'm curious whether people are planning to just hold on or
sell into a bounce or...?
Posted by Robert50 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 02:18 pm
IMO, worse thing we could do is sell at the bottom. I have
started to hedge in the past hour. To sell, I will
wait for the signal because it looks like things are starting to
head sideways. If we get a signal on a bounce, I will then
make my own decision on whether to sell, stay, sell 1/2, etc.
Historically, the system has comeback pretty well.
As Chas points out, we have a higher low on the Renko Charts and
I see the inverse ETF's are starting to break down slightly.
remember the system trade as is will stop out after an oversold
bounce. The market is likely to eventually have a 50%
retracement, is it from here or from current levels, hard to say.
However the system will stop out after an good oversold
bounce, so hard to say, the system could stop out in this range, or
it could end up only being a -5% loss, we just don't know.
However watch the video and see the stats below, all future
trades will be capped at a -6.5% max stoploss, which we can
handle
Posted by burkmere on 11th of Aug 2011 at 02:05 am
I'm going to follow the system and hope this trade is an
aberration. I'm going to give it 15-20 trades to see how it does
vs. the market.
That many trades should be enough time to make up for this trade
if it indeed results in a substantial loss.
If this trade results in a loss (and odds are great that it
will) that will mean only 3 out of the 6 trades will have been
profitable.
If the long term rate is to be 90% sucessful, the odds of only 3
of the first 6 trades (instead of 5 or 6) being successful are
very, very slim. But it is happenning, it appears.
So...either this is very, very unusual or the only other
conclusion I can draw is that there is indeed some curve fitting
going on..intentional or not. I sure hope I'm wrong and
the next 15-20 trades make up for the first six. I'm sure we
all want that. Let's hope the sample size is just too small
so far and perhaps we can give it a break regarding the
200dma thing happenning...but it may end up being a costly
trade..which is unfortunate, of course.
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what are you all planning to do going forward?
Posted by podefar on 11th of Aug 2011 at 12:31 am
on the bpt newsletter, Steve puts a downside target on the .spx of 1030 or thereabouts. That's still a ways away from where we are now. I'm curious whether people are planning to just hold on or sell into a bounce or...?
thanks.
IMO, worse thing we could
Posted by Robert50 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 02:18 pm
IMO, worse thing we could do is sell at the bottom. I have started to hedge in the past hour. To sell, I will wait for the signal because it looks like things are starting to head sideways. If we get a signal on a bounce, I will then make my own decision on whether to sell, stay, sell 1/2, etc. Historically, the system has comeback pretty well.
As Chas points out, we have a higher low on the Renko Charts and I see the inverse ETF's are starting to break down slightly.
My CALLS ARE UP 178%
Posted by Robert50 on 11th of Aug 2011 at 03:05 pm
My CALLS ARE UP 178% TODAY and I am still at a $3K loss. You gotta love it!
remember the system trade as
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2011 at 03:14 am
remember the system trade as is will stop out after an oversold bounce. The market is likely to eventually have a 50% retracement, is it from here or from current levels, hard to say. However the system will stop out after an good oversold bounce, so hard to say, the system could stop out in this range, or it could end up only being a -5% loss, we just don't know.
However watch the video and see the stats below, all future trades will be capped at a -6.5% max stoploss, which we can handle
Well...
Posted by burkmere on 11th of Aug 2011 at 02:05 am
I'm going to follow the system and hope this trade is an aberration. I'm going to give it 15-20 trades to see how it does vs. the market.
That many trades should be enough time to make up for this trade if it indeed results in a substantial loss.
If this trade results in a loss (and odds are great that it will) that will mean only 3 out of the 6 trades will have been profitable.
If the long term rate is to be 90% sucessful, the odds of only 3 of the first 6 trades (instead of 5 or 6) being successful are very, very slim. But it is happenning, it appears.
So...either this is very, very unusual or the only other conclusion I can draw is that there is indeed some curve fitting going on..intentional or not. I sure hope I'm wrong and the next 15-20 trades make up for the first six. I'm sure we all want that. Let's hope the sample size is just too small so far and perhaps we can give it a break regarding the 200dma thing happenning...but it may end up being a costly trade..which is unfortunate, of course.