Testing the broken trendline as we speak...if able to back above
the next pivot is around 1138 area on ES. That would serve to set a
second peak on the RS similar to the Left Shoulder. The 1138-43
area in ES would be an objective short area with a stop above the
downtrend line.
For upside, we need to see a break decisively above 1145/50 cash
area which is the downtrend line on the cash index and back above
tomorrow's pivot.
There is a possible Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern on the
dollar and a HS Top on the Euro 15 minute charts that one should
also monitor in conjuction with the equity markets.
ES continues to hold up ok with a potential cup and handle
pattern forming. A 3 bar confirmation above the pivot is necesary
for upside momentum which would target the upper 8/4-8/10
trendline. Thus we'll have to see which way this breaks
cleanly. I have set some alarms but now off to bed.
In today's video on the slopeofhope, Tim said GDX was his
favourite short. And his pal Serge over at the ETF cafe points out
that it's formed an identical-looking H$S pattern to the S&P
before it crashed, saying that if he was holding GDX he'd be
'concerned': http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/
I've taken the trade, knowing that the system's track record
puts the odds on our side. But interesting to see whether Tim's
track record of unsuccessfully shorting gold plays out...
ES has made it up to towards 1138 pivot after breaking back
above its trendline. I will be watching this area to see if it
provides resistance with the downtrend line just above around
1143.
ES 15 Update
Posted by steve on 10th of Aug 2011 at 08:36 pm
Testing the broken trendline as we speak...if able to back above the next pivot is around 1138 area on ES. That would serve to set a second peak on the RS similar to the Left Shoulder. The 1138-43 area in ES would be an objective short area with a stop above the downtrend line.
For upside, we need to see a break decisively above 1145/50 cash area which is the downtrend line on the cash index and back above tomorrow's pivot.
There is a possible Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern on the dollar and a HS Top on the Euro 15 minute charts that one should also monitor in conjuction with the equity markets.
ES continues to hold up
Posted by steve on 11th of Aug 2011 at 01:32 am
ES continues to hold up ok with a potential cup and handle pattern forming. A 3 bar confirmation above the pivot is necesary for upside momentum which would target the upper 8/4-8/10 trendline. Thus we'll have to see which way this breaks cleanly. I have set some alarms but now off to bed.
ES 60 Update
Posted by steve on 11th of Aug 2011 at 04:25 am
http://screencast.com/t/VZ5XyBy44vp
Dueling HS Patterns shown on ES 15 and 60 minute charts - watching to see how this resolves but favor down.
Here's an updated ES 15
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2011 at 03:49 am
Here's an updated ES 15 min chart, watch that lower neckline
Tim Knight on GDX
Posted by audax on 11th of Aug 2011 at 01:04 am
In today's video on the slopeofhope, Tim said GDX was his favourite short. And his pal Serge over at the ETF cafe points out that it's formed an identical-looking H$S pattern to the S&P before it crashed, saying that if he was holding GDX he'd be 'concerned': http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/
I've taken the trade, knowing that the system's track record puts the odds on our side. But interesting to see whether Tim's track record of unsuccessfully shorting gold plays out...
ES has made it up
Posted by steve on 10th of Aug 2011 at 09:53 pm
ES has made it up to towards 1138 pivot after breaking back above its trendline. I will be watching this area to see if it provides resistance with the downtrend line just above around 1143.
Would you short it here?
Posted by chlo888 on 10th of Aug 2011 at 09:01 pm
Would you short it here? Can it really get over the trendline?