And I'm focusing on un-loading my longs vs. adding. Wish I
had the guts to go all in on the 1101 touch this aft (38% retrace),
but I added too many grey hairs over the last week.
I dug deep and went further long in an S&P fund in my 401k
yesterday. I just kept telling myself that I would buy at each
major fib level down to test Feb 09' lows. (and this seemed to be
the 38.2% fib). I also kept telling myself if wrong, I've got 15
years to retirement!
a.A bunch definitely threw in the towel and bailed as we went
over 10% drawdown yesterday if not earlier. Can you blame them as
this trade went into the biggest draw down zone in 16 years is
it(?) ,with no turn in sight prior to late today.We couldn't even
take out the 50 period MA on a 15 minute chart and every pos div
got busted.Hearts were racing.
b.as the market tanked in previous days I am sure you are
not the only one who missed trade 4 so don't beat yourself
up.You should be grateful you didn't take it or you might have have
had a heart attack at 2 pm today when the lows were taken out
AGAIN..
c.the lack of yahooing on the general community board when the
market tanked day after day meant everyone was long (via SPY
system??)and wrong and feeling the pain even though most tried to
keep their chin up and said nothing on any board.Come on, some of
the triple etfs were nearly doubling as the market tanked and
I heard not a single yahoo!Usually a stock goes up 5% and there are
accolades flying around everywhere.Yep most were long and wrong for
sure.
d.Some couldn't control their distaste of the bad trade they
were in and how they were disciplined people who had let a
mechanical system beat them up and they had never in their previous
disciplined world let this occur.They were probably selling their 4
th trade just to get their money back a bit.
So IMHO you shouldn't take the 4th trade.Just be bloody grateful
if you get out remotely intact.This trade has been hell for most
members and if they say otherwise they are lying.When one of the
only trades of a live system 3 month in gives the biggest
drawdown ever the feeling of going into the abyss is
perfectly normal IMO.One would think NATURALLY they had entered the
BLACK SWAN zone.
So SS...have a drink and put your feet up and hope,which I
appreciate is not the best strategy,that you get out partially
alive.Many people have already dropped 15% on this trade if not
more as they used sso to go long!
Anyone who says they were relaxed during a 15% plus
drawdown(30% if in sso) intra trade and still feeling
fine, either has too much money or copious amounts of intestinal
fortitude and is a person who would enjoy getting their toenails
pulled out !
Frankly I think the best way to deal with a mechanical system is
to put it on autopilot and NOT even know when it is making trades
because it is as clear as day that people do not cope well when
things get out of control.Silence speaks and there was way toooo
much silence but some couldn't control themselves
understandably.
This is the reality of peoples actions.We were all given COPIOUS
amounts of information by BPT on this system etc so should
have known BUT but you just CAN'T allow for human nature.People
stated they had lost years of gradual profits they had built up.Do
you think they stayed long and didn't sell out??Maybe...maybe
not.
So SS everyone is not so disciplined as you think and to me you
have done really well to get to this point!
Good luck and please wish me luck too because we are not out of
the woods yet!
A system with 90% plus winners is way better than I can ever do
but again we still have the issue of human nature and that is where
things fall apart.
"You pays your money and takes your chances" to quote that wise
sage Popeye.
Yeah it's been painful (especially at 2x leverage). And it still
might get more painful over the coming days. Have I wanted to
sell? You bet. But I know I can't beat the system's stats on
my own. So I hold on knowing that any mechanical system does
what's best based on probability of
many similar situations and that it may not choose what's
best in any particular situation. (I don't know how to tell the
difference between the two in realtime) I figure venting on
the board does no good so I sit down and shut up and wait to see
the outcome along with all the others silently suffering this draw
down with me.
One concern I have however is the system bases
it's recommendations on "typical" market parameters
and "this ain't Kansas no more" after the sell off we've had.
But then I refer myself back to my opening quote and think of
another quote I've heard lately "it is what it is" (It
doesn't make me feel any better but what will when one is loosing
$$$)
Not trying to be Pollyannaish here, but seems a year or so of
trading will tell the tale...hopefully. If it's
underperforming the market at that point, well, the System's got
some 'splainin' to do. If it's beating it, I'll stay with it.
Especially if it's beating it by 10-15% or so.
Sure, 35% a year average would be nice, but I do think some of
that is probably from curve fitting stuff. I think we just don't
know how much. Only live trading will tell. Maybe it will continue
to average that much and that would be great!
Again I agree with you. But I think that Matt should have
waited longer to introduce the system. He should have waited
until a year or so of live trading had occurred to see what
realistic expectations for the system should be. The problem
is that, even after this trade, there are subscribers who talk
about the system's "history" as if it contains real trades before
April.
please, I'm sure Matt feel real bad about this, no need to keep
piling on. I am sitting on a big loss too, and wish I had not take
this trade (lots of misgivings etc etc). but let's not put the
blame on Matt, I'm sure he was trying to help us make money. The
mkt is what it is, anything can happen....
I think you are left to your own devices. Of course, it might
have been better to take the trade at 1101 than at 1174 or
higher....
No guarantees in any of this, but personally, I think here we
got caught in the middle of a trend shift and one that didn't just
sell off a few perecent, but the drawdown from the first buy to the
low today is 15%. I did the multi-trade so don't want to risk
more ammo, but if I'd only done the single trade, well....I don't
want to give you any ideas, but....
Good luck! BPT has provided the mechanical system. Any
deviation from that and , well....it's up to you!
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Just pondering
Posted by sschulman on 9th of Aug 2011 at 04:31 pm
So now mkt is back up to where we took the 4th entry. Except I didn't take the 4th entry. So now what? should I take it now?
No indication from Matt that mkt is now overbought enough to close this trade. Hmmm... maybe take the trade.
But all the reasons for me not taking the entry (ie my root-canal indicator) are still in place. Hmmm... maybe better not take the trade.
Am I the only one pondering? Is everyone else SO disciplined?
.....Susan
I didn't take the 4th entry
Posted by kalinm on 9th of Aug 2011 at 05:46 pm
And I'm focusing on un-loading my longs vs. adding. Wish I had the guts to go all in on the 1101 touch this aft (38% retrace), but I added too many grey hairs over the last week.
I dug deep and went
Posted by oreo on 9th of Aug 2011 at 06:02 pm
I dug deep and went further long in an S&P fund in my 401k yesterday. I just kept telling myself that I would buy at each major fib level down to test Feb 09' lows. (and this seemed to be the 38.2% fib). I also kept telling myself if wrong, I've got 15 years to retirement!
forget the pondering this is the truth
Posted by hurricanemalta on 9th of Aug 2011 at 05:24 pm
SS...The reality is this.
a.A bunch definitely threw in the towel and bailed as we went over 10% drawdown yesterday if not earlier. Can you blame them as this trade went into the biggest draw down zone in 16 years is it(?) ,with no turn in sight prior to late today.We couldn't even take out the 50 period MA on a 15 minute chart and every pos div got busted.Hearts were racing.
b.as the market tanked in previous days I am sure you are not the only one who missed trade 4 so don't beat yourself up.You should be grateful you didn't take it or you might have have had a heart attack at 2 pm today when the lows were taken out AGAIN..
c.the lack of yahooing on the general community board when the market tanked day after day meant everyone was long (via SPY system??)and wrong and feeling the pain even though most tried to keep their chin up and said nothing on any board.Come on, some of the triple etfs were nearly doubling as the market tanked and I heard not a single yahoo!Usually a stock goes up 5% and there are accolades flying around everywhere.Yep most were long and wrong for sure.
d.Some couldn't control their distaste of the bad trade they were in and how they were disciplined people who had let a mechanical system beat them up and they had never in their previous disciplined world let this occur.They were probably selling their 4 th trade just to get their money back a bit.
So IMHO you shouldn't take the 4th trade.Just be bloody grateful if you get out remotely intact.This trade has been hell for most members and if they say otherwise they are lying.When one of the only trades of a live system 3 month in gives the biggest drawdown ever the feeling of going into the abyss is perfectly normal IMO.One would think NATURALLY they had entered the BLACK SWAN zone.
So SS...have a drink and put your feet up and hope,which I appreciate is not the best strategy,that you get out partially alive.Many people have already dropped 15% on this trade if not more as they used sso to go long!
Anyone who says they were relaxed during a 15% plus drawdown(30% if in sso) intra trade and still feeling fine, either has too much money or copious amounts of intestinal fortitude and is a person who would enjoy getting their toenails pulled out !
Frankly I think the best way to deal with a mechanical system is to put it on autopilot and NOT even know when it is making trades because it is as clear as day that people do not cope well when things get out of control.Silence speaks and there was way toooo much silence but some couldn't control themselves understandably.
This is the reality of peoples actions.We were all given COPIOUS amounts of information by BPT on this system etc so should have known BUT but you just CAN'T allow for human nature.People stated they had lost years of gradual profits they had built up.Do you think they stayed long and didn't sell out??Maybe...maybe not.
So SS everyone is not so disciplined as you think and to me you have done really well to get to this point!
Good luck and please wish me luck too because we are not out of the woods yet!
A system with 90% plus winners is way better than I can ever do but again we still have the issue of human nature and that is where things fall apart.
"You pays your money and
Posted by tj6p on 9th of Aug 2011 at 06:25 pm
"You pays your money and takes your chances" to quote that wise sage Popeye.
Yeah it's been painful (especially at 2x leverage). And it still might get more painful over the coming days. Have I wanted to sell? You bet. But I know I can't beat the system's stats on my own. So I hold on knowing that any mechanical system does what's best based on probability of many similar situations and that it may not choose what's best in any particular situation. (I don't know how to tell the difference between the two in realtime) I figure venting on the board does no good so I sit down and shut up and wait to see the outcome along with all the others silently suffering this draw down with me.
One concern I have however is the system bases it's recommendations on "typical" market parameters and "this ain't Kansas no more" after the sell off we've had. But then I refer myself back to my opening quote and think of another quote I've heard lately "it is what it is" (It doesn't make me feel any better but what will when one is loosing $$$)
Give it time...
Posted by burkmere on 9th of Aug 2011 at 07:05 pm
Not trying to be Pollyannaish here, but seems a year or so of trading will tell the tale...hopefully. If it's underperforming the market at that point, well, the System's got some 'splainin' to do. If it's beating it, I'll stay with it. Especially if it's beating it by 10-15% or so.
Sure, 35% a year average would be nice, but I do think some of that is probably from curve fitting stuff. I think we just don't know how much. Only live trading will tell. Maybe it will continue to average that much and that would be great!
Again I agree with you.
Posted by algyros on 9th of Aug 2011 at 07:44 pm
Again I agree with you. But I think that Matt should have waited longer to introduce the system. He should have waited until a year or so of live trading had occurred to see what realistic expectations for the system should be. The problem is that, even after this trade, there are subscribers who talk about the system's "history" as if it contains real trades before April.
jeez
Posted by tsurplus on 9th of Aug 2011 at 09:23 pm
please, I'm sure Matt feel real bad about this, no need to keep piling on. I am sitting on a big loss too, and wish I had not take this trade (lots of misgivings etc etc). but let's not put the blame on Matt, I'm sure he was trying to help us make money. The mkt is what it is, anything can happen....
Susan...
Posted by burkmere on 9th of Aug 2011 at 04:45 pm
I think you are left to your own devices. Of course, it might have been better to take the trade at 1101 than at 1174 or higher....
No guarantees in any of this, but personally, I think here we got caught in the middle of a trend shift and one that didn't just sell off a few perecent, but the drawdown from the first buy to the low today is 15%. I did the multi-trade so don't want to risk more ammo, but if I'd only done the single trade, well....I don't want to give you any ideas, but....
Good luck! BPT has provided the mechanical system. Any deviation from that and , well....it's up to you!