I'm told he was cheerleading all year, including something like
an SPX 1450 prediction for 2011 at the Top. True or false?
Also, I missed where he said to sell, did he? If not, how can he
be trusted to call a bottom when he missed the Top?
Last, let's all remember that he works for a retail broker. He's
paid to always be bullish, but though I think he's a smart
guy, he risks his job by telling the the truth. What do you call an
adviser who can't tell the truth?
Posted by pamjohnsp4 on 9th of Aug 2011 at 03:23 pm
How many Chief Investment Strategist of American brokerage firms
were saying buy Canadian resources and get your money out of the US
since 2001? He has been bullish on commodities and all over
Canadian stocks. RJ US bought a Canadian Boutique in
2001.
Good calls for sure re the resource stocks. If you could
clarify Jeff's posture as we entered this huge plunge,
that would be appreciated.
I also listened to the audio file, and to be fair, I think that
he did
notcall the "bottom" - what he said was it was too late to sell
and that we should expect a rebound. I agree fully, and here we
have the S&P approaching the 1175 pivot I am using, which makes
it a low risk sell point. Note Jeff also said that after a rebound
we could look for an undercut of today's lows - again I fully
agree, we should all be looking for a test of the low after this
rally is done. As we all know, the sharpest rallies are bear market
rallies......
In the file, Jeff Saut calls for a bottom very specifically when
he said:
"when you made your low,
which I think you made
yesterday, you had a sharp throwback rally and a retest"
also he refers to an intermediate low in these 2 areas too:
1) I don't think there will be any more compression of PE
ratios
2) last time NYSE McClellan Oscillator was this oversold was
during February 2009 and we all know what happened "out of
there"
He talks about undercutting the lows "marginally" when he talked
about the 1978-1979 decline.
But I think we are losing the big picture. The big picture
is that he is saying an intermediate bottom is in place.
Whether you undercut it or not marginally is kind of meaningless to
someone who has already lost 10-15% in the S&P.
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I'm told he was cheerleading
Jeff Saut calls a bottom
Posted by PA on 9th of Aug 2011 at 03:18 pm
I'm told he was cheerleading all year, including something like an SPX 1450 prediction for 2011 at the Top. True or false?
Also, I missed where he said to sell, did he? If not, how can he be trusted to call a bottom when he missed the Top?
Last, let's all remember that he works for a retail broker. He's paid to always be bullish, but though I think he's a smart guy, he risks his job by telling the the truth. What do you call an adviser who can't tell the truth?
A word on behalf of Jeff from a person who works for the CDN arm of RJ
Posted by pamjohnsp4 on 9th of Aug 2011 at 03:23 pm
How many Chief Investment Strategist of American brokerage firms were saying buy Canadian resources and get your money out of the US since 2001? He has been bullish on commodities and all over Canadian stocks. RJ US bought a Canadian Boutique in 2001.
Good calls for sure re
Posted by PA on 9th of Aug 2011 at 04:25 pm
Good calls for sure re the resource stocks. If you could clarify Jeff's posture as we entered this huge plunge, that would be appreciated.
I also listened to the audio file, and to be fair, I think that he did not call the "bottom" - what he said was it was too late to sell and that we should expect a rebound. I agree fully, and here we have the S&P approaching the 1175 pivot I am using, which makes it a low risk sell point. Note Jeff also said that after a rebound we could look for an undercut of today's lows - again I fully agree, we should all be looking for a test of the low after this rally is done. As we all know, the sharpest rallies are bear market rallies......
listen to the file again- he does say the low was made
Posted by rikkwan on 9th of Aug 2011 at 05:58 pm
In the file, Jeff Saut calls for a bottom very specifically when he said:
"when you made your low, which I think you made yesterday, you had a sharp throwback rally and a retest"
also he refers to an intermediate low in these 2 areas too:
1) I don't think there will be any more compression of PE ratios
2) last time NYSE McClellan Oscillator was this oversold was during February 2009 and we all know what happened "out of there"
He talks about undercutting the lows "marginally" when he talked about the 1978-1979 decline.
But I think we are losing the big picture. The big picture is that he is saying an intermediate bottom is in place. Whether you undercut it or not marginally is kind of meaningless to someone who has already lost 10-15% in the S&P.