Posted by riollano on 29th of Jul 2011 at 09:51 am
Any early numbers for the "line in the sand" on entry two?
I enjoyed knowing those numbers the last time the system was in a
trade because it made for some really good day trades...
thanks.
Posted by samspiro on 29th of Jul 2011 at 09:12 am
Matt, the system has been doing fantastic but it sure
seems like a tough time to take a buy signal with all the bad news,
including your newsletter today but i guess the answer would be
that it is mechanical in nature.
I see some signs that lend "comfort" to a buy right now. Namely
we have 200 DMA support immediately below, and in fact have bounced
off it so far this morning. Also, the VIX closed above it's upper
bollinger band yesterday then gapped up this morning ! Of course it
could go up some more, dragging the upper band up with it. But when
this happens, there is usually a rally starting "soon". When VIX
closes back inside BB and an indicator (such as Stoch(50) on the
VIX) reverses from overbought and closes below 80we should have at
least a short rally. Have a look at what SPY did after these
historic occurences. Lends comfort to this trade. In spite of what
is going on with the elephanys and the asses, I can see some cause
for short term bullishness. Matt's latest trade could be another
surgical precision entry yet.
In any case, it is what it is. I'm OK with that, every time.
then hopefully an agreement over the weekend, and some kind of
2-3 days rally to close this trade. Then maybe the system can
establish a short position since this will be probably be a short
term bounce.
samspiro- like I
said before, the system is what it is, I can't program news into
the system, so really it is what it is. Did I think that the
system was taking the best entry yesterday, no, but I took the
trade because I made a commitment to follow the system and that's
what I'm doing. I do it personally, but also if you read the
SPY system page 'real money' section, I take the trades along with
you guys for better or for worse, I have my money on the line with
you so that if the system loses, I will lose too. I'm not one
of these guys who sells a system and doesn't trade it himself.
Anyway decide what's best for you of course, you have to make
that decision on your own, and there is no guarantee that this
system trade will work out.
Also remember, this system is generally not a 'feel good' system
because it buys dips when you feel negative and bearish, and it
sells and shorts rallies when things seem good and positive. So in
effect most of the trades are not going to feel good
psychologically, though I concur that this current trade probably
feels worse then most.
I'm not Matt (clearly), but my thoughts are that there will
always be reasons not take a trade. You either follow a
system's calls or you're engaging in discretionary trading. There's
nothing inherently wrong with that, but you have to ask yourself if
you're going to do better over the long run that way. I know
that I won't.
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SPY system long 7/28
Posted by matt on 28th of Jul 2011 at 04:17 pm
Single Entry:
100% long on the close of 7/28at price of 130.22
Multi Entry:
40% long on the close of 7/28at price of 130.22
Any early numbers for the
Posted by riollano on 29th of Jul 2011 at 09:51 am
Any early numbers for the "line in the sand" on entry two? I enjoyed knowing those numbers the last time the system was in a trade because it made for some really good day trades... thanks.
entry signal
Posted by samspiro on 29th of Jul 2011 at 09:12 am
Matt, the system has been doing fantastic but it sure seems like a tough time to take a buy signal with all the bad news, including your newsletter today but i guess the answer would be that it is mechanical in nature.
I am interested in your thoughts.
There are bright spots
Posted by dougmil on 29th of Jul 2011 at 11:44 am
I see some signs that lend "comfort" to a buy right now. Namely we have 200 DMA support immediately below, and in fact have bounced off it so far this morning. Also, the VIX closed above it's upper bollinger band yesterday then gapped up this morning ! Of course it could go up some more, dragging the upper band up with it. But when this happens, there is usually a rally starting "soon". When VIX closes back inside BB and an indicator (such as Stoch(50) on the VIX) reverses from overbought and closes below 80we should have at least a short rally. Have a look at what SPY did after these historic occurences. Lends comfort to this trade. In spite of what is going on with the elephanys and the asses, I can see some cause for short term bullishness. Matt's latest trade could be another surgical precision entry yet.
In any case, it is what it is. I'm OK with that, every time.
Doug
There are bright spots
Posted by Robert50 on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:15 pm
Excellent, alot of indicators are really oversold. We need some more fear to make more money!
there are also a couple reasons why we may "wash out" first though so prepare yourself mentally should it come to pass....
Posted by marketguy on 29th of Jul 2011 at 12:06 pm
Marketguy, that's why I opted
Posted by dougmil on 29th of Jul 2011 at 12:10 pm
Marketguy, that's why I opted for the multi-entry this time around even though I am a strong single entry kinda guy. Doug
good call....if i had to guess we'll get the second fill today and perhaps a third on mon or tues (unless we REALLY) fall apart into the close....
Posted by marketguy on 29th of Jul 2011 at 12:37 pm
Best case will be a 2nd entery position today to lower cost basis
Posted by mrab on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:06 pm
then hopefully an agreement over the weekend, and some kind of 2-3 days rally to close this trade. Then maybe the system can establish a short position since this will be probably be a short term bounce.
actually mrab i think this has the "potential" to be a very big winner lasting some time (once the low is found of course)....
Posted by marketguy on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:38 pm
I will be very happy with this being a major winning trade
Posted by mrab on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:44 pm
just with all the troubles specificly in Europe it will be hard to have a major move in the market without some kind of clarity.
samspiro- like I said before, the
Posted by matt on 29th of Jul 2011 at 11:05 am
samspiro- like I said before, the system is what it is, I can't program news into the system, so really it is what it is. Did I think that the system was taking the best entry yesterday, no, but I took the trade because I made a commitment to follow the system and that's what I'm doing. I do it personally, but also if you read the SPY system page 'real money' section, I take the trades along with you guys for better or for worse, I have my money on the line with you so that if the system loses, I will lose too. I'm not one of these guys who sells a system and doesn't trade it himself.
Anyway decide what's best for you of course, you have to make that decision on your own, and there is no guarantee that this system trade will work out.
Also remember, this system is generally not a 'feel good' system because it buys dips when you feel negative and bearish, and it sells and shorts rallies when things seem good and positive. So in effect most of the trades are not going to feel good psychologically, though I concur that this current trade probably feels worse then most.
spy system reply
Posted by samspiro on 29th of Jul 2011 at 11:14 am
matt, i agree. it is what it is. i was just wondering your take. it is a tough entry but right now it looks a lot better.
Hedge
Posted by turps on 29th of Jul 2011 at 10:36 am
Why not take a hedge if you are a bit worried about some draw down
I'm not him either. Yet why not PM him? He's always good at answering a relevant question politely asked.
Posted by cubby on 29th of Jul 2011 at 10:03 am
I'm not him either. Yet why not PM him?
He's always good at answering a relevant question politely asked in a reasonable time.
I'm not Matt (clearly), but
Posted by algyros on 29th of Jul 2011 at 09:22 am
I'm not Matt (clearly), but my thoughts are that there will always be reasons not take a trade. You either follow a system's calls or you're engaging in discretionary trading. There's nothing inherently wrong with that, but you have to ask yourself if you're going to do better over the long run that way. I know that I won't.