I see some signs that lend "comfort" to a buy right now. Namely
we have 200 DMA support immediately below, and in fact have bounced
off it so far this morning. Also, the VIX closed above it's upper
bollinger band yesterday then gapped up this morning ! Of course it
could go up some more, dragging the upper band up with it. But when
this happens, there is usually a rally starting "soon". When VIX
closes back inside BB and an indicator (such as Stoch(50) on the
VIX) reverses from overbought and closes below 80we should have at
least a short rally. Have a look at what SPY did after these
historic occurences. Lends comfort to this trade. In spite of what
is going on with the elephanys and the asses, I can see some cause
for short term bullishness. Matt's latest trade could be another
surgical precision entry yet.
In any case, it is what it is. I'm OK with that, every time.
then hopefully an agreement over the weekend, and some kind of
2-3 days rally to close this trade. Then maybe the system can
establish a short position since this will be probably be a short
term bounce.
There are bright spots
SPY system long 7/28
Posted by dougmil on 29th of Jul 2011 at 11:44 am
I see some signs that lend "comfort" to a buy right now. Namely we have 200 DMA support immediately below, and in fact have bounced off it so far this morning. Also, the VIX closed above it's upper bollinger band yesterday then gapped up this morning ! Of course it could go up some more, dragging the upper band up with it. But when this happens, there is usually a rally starting "soon". When VIX closes back inside BB and an indicator (such as Stoch(50) on the VIX) reverses from overbought and closes below 80we should have at least a short rally. Have a look at what SPY did after these historic occurences. Lends comfort to this trade. In spite of what is going on with the elephanys and the asses, I can see some cause for short term bullishness. Matt's latest trade could be another surgical precision entry yet.
In any case, it is what it is. I'm OK with that, every time.
Doug
There are bright spots
Posted by Robert50 on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:15 pm
Excellent, alot of indicators are really oversold. We need some more fear to make more money!
there are also a couple reasons why we may "wash out" first though so prepare yourself mentally should it come to pass....
Posted by marketguy on 29th of Jul 2011 at 12:06 pm
Marketguy, that's why I opted
Posted by dougmil on 29th of Jul 2011 at 12:10 pm
Marketguy, that's why I opted for the multi-entry this time around even though I am a strong single entry kinda guy. Doug
good call....if i had to guess we'll get the second fill today and perhaps a third on mon or tues (unless we REALLY) fall apart into the close....
Posted by marketguy on 29th of Jul 2011 at 12:37 pm
Best case will be a 2nd entery position today to lower cost basis
Posted by mrab on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:06 pm
then hopefully an agreement over the weekend, and some kind of 2-3 days rally to close this trade. Then maybe the system can establish a short position since this will be probably be a short term bounce.
actually mrab i think this has the "potential" to be a very big winner lasting some time (once the low is found of course)....
Posted by marketguy on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:38 pm
I will be very happy with this being a major winning trade
Posted by mrab on 29th of Jul 2011 at 01:44 pm
just with all the troubles specificly in Europe it will be hard to have a major move in the market without some kind of clarity.