I suspect that every one of these trades on this system are
going to feel counter intuitive. It is never going to be easy
buying when the market is really oversold because it should feel
like the wrong time to buy, and that is why most people never make
money in the market. Look, everyone knows that the employment
and factory numbers from last week are showing that the economy
isn't recovering and the economy is still cold. Most
investors are selling that news and causing the markets to become
extended to the downside. It will always feel like the wrong
time to be buying.
auni- I should add something like this to the FAQ,
that many/most of the trades will feel counter intuitive, maybe not
always the 1st entries, but
especiallythe multi entry trades because they are
entered when you are already down from you 1st or 2nd entry
etc.
Now regarding this current trade, it may end up either being a
winning trade or a losing trade, but the result is the same; many
trades are like this for the system and people should be aware of
it, so if/when we get the crazy or emotional emails, I can say, did
you read the FAQ? Did you look at the actual trades so that
you have a feel for how the system actually trades? That's
why I've suggested that everyone really take the time to look at
the trade examples, and really study the system closely so that you
know how the system works and why kind of trades that it takes, so
that you better prepared for the emotion of the trades that will
seem counter intuitive.
When a SPY Trade System signal shows up on your mobile devise
and, everyone is all jacked up about the trade because, everyone
feels all warm and fuzzy about the signal... then you need to
worry.
Otherwise, the consensus will always be wrong. It has to
be. Something like 92% of all trades places, lose money.
That sort of means that 92% of us are losers. I'm not
pointing any fingers, but read the posts on this SPY forum when
this system gives a buy. And, wait until someday when it
gives a fourth buy, which is statistically the biggest winner.
I bet it will be harder than heck to take that fourth trade
and I can't wait to see the posts when Matt gives one of those
number 4 signals.
I learned it many years ago. My gut doesn't work for
trading. It is totally wrong if I listen to it. So, I
coined my own saying and taped it to my computer 10 years ago:
"Your brain is for trading and your gut is for eating."
So, Matt, you are just going to have to get thick skinned
because, I bet the psychology doesn't change much from signal to
signal. And, that's a good thing.
My gut told me that my SPY bid @128.88 gets filled afterhours
and I went to sleep but unfortunately this was not the case and
futures are now up a few points. Next time I probably won't try to
get a better fill...
True, and I'm following the system regardless of what how my
emotions conspire to undermine my trading.
However, we should be aware that the overwhelming majority of
those "16 years" are backtested, not traded live. From what I
know of the system, it appears to be robust and not the product of
clever optimization, so I expect it to perform well in real
trading.
Still, until that happens, it behooves all of us to be aware of
the difference between backtested and live trading results.
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It will never get any easier.
SPY system scale in 2nd entry
Posted by auni on 6th of Jun 2011 at 04:03 pm
I suspect that every one of these trades on this system are going to feel counter intuitive. It is never going to be easy buying when the market is really oversold because it should feel like the wrong time to buy, and that is why most people never make money in the market. Look, everyone knows that the employment and factory numbers from last week are showing that the economy isn't recovering and the economy is still cold. Most investors are selling that news and causing the markets to become extended to the downside. It will always feel like the wrong time to be buying.
auni- I should add something
Posted by matt on 6th of Jun 2011 at 06:25 pm
auni- I should add something like this to the FAQ, that many/most of the trades will feel counter intuitive, maybe not always the 1st entries, but especiallythe multi entry trades because they are entered when you are already down from you 1st or 2nd entry etc.
Now regarding this current trade, it may end up either being a winning trade or a losing trade, but the result is the same; many trades are like this for the system and people should be aware of it, so if/when we get the crazy or emotional emails, I can say, did you read the FAQ? Did you look at the actual trades so that you have a feel for how the system actually trades? That's why I've suggested that everyone really take the time to look at the trade examples, and really study the system closely so that you know how the system works and why kind of trades that it takes, so that you better prepared for the emotion of the trades that will seem counter intuitive.
I'll tell you when to worry...
Posted by auni on 6th of Jun 2011 at 11:37 pm
When a SPY Trade System signal shows up on your mobile devise and, everyone is all jacked up about the trade because, everyone feels all warm and fuzzy about the signal... then you need to worry.
Otherwise, the consensus will always be wrong. It has to be. Something like 92% of all trades places, lose money. That sort of means that 92% of us are losers. I'm not pointing any fingers, but read the posts on this SPY forum when this system gives a buy. And, wait until someday when it gives a fourth buy, which is statistically the biggest winner. I bet it will be harder than heck to take that fourth trade and I can't wait to see the posts when Matt gives one of those number 4 signals.
I learned it many years ago. My gut doesn't work for trading. It is totally wrong if I listen to it. So, I coined my own saying and taped it to my computer 10 years ago: "Your brain is for trading and your gut is for eating."
So, Matt, you are just going to have to get thick skinned because, I bet the psychology doesn't change much from signal to signal. And, that's a good thing.
Manage risk,
Auni (Gold-N-Eye)
guts...
Posted by zwyss on 7th of Jun 2011 at 02:32 am
My gut told me that my SPY bid @128.88 gets filled afterhours and I went to sleep but unfortunately this was not the case and futures are now up a few points. Next time I probably won't try to get a better fill...
Your gut...
Posted by burkmere on 7th of Jun 2011 at 10:58 am
Over the past 16 years the System has been much smarter than our "gut.". ;)
True, and I'm following the
Posted by algyros on 7th of Jun 2011 at 01:05 pm
True, and I'm following the system regardless of what how my emotions conspire to undermine my trading.
However, we should be aware that the overwhelming majority of those "16 years" are backtested, not traded live. From what I know of the system, it appears to be robust and not the product of clever optimization, so I expect it to perform well in real trading.
Still, until that happens, it behooves all of us to be aware of the difference between backtested and live trading results.