When a SPY Trade System signal shows up on your mobile devise
and, everyone is all jacked up about the trade because, everyone
feels all warm and fuzzy about the signal... then you need to
worry.
Otherwise, the consensus will always be wrong. It has to
be. Something like 92% of all trades places, lose money.
That sort of means that 92% of us are losers. I'm not
pointing any fingers, but read the posts on this SPY forum when
this system gives a buy. And, wait until someday when it
gives a fourth buy, which is statistically the biggest winner.
I bet it will be harder than heck to take that fourth trade
and I can't wait to see the posts when Matt gives one of those
number 4 signals.
I learned it many years ago. My gut doesn't work for
trading. It is totally wrong if I listen to it. So, I
coined my own saying and taped it to my computer 10 years ago:
"Your brain is for trading and your gut is for eating."
So, Matt, you are just going to have to get thick skinned
because, I bet the psychology doesn't change much from signal to
signal. And, that's a good thing.
My gut told me that my SPY bid @128.88 gets filled afterhours
and I went to sleep but unfortunately this was not the case and
futures are now up a few points. Next time I probably won't try to
get a better fill...
True, and I'm following the system regardless of what how my
emotions conspire to undermine my trading.
However, we should be aware that the overwhelming majority of
those "16 years" are backtested, not traded live. From what I
know of the system, it appears to be robust and not the product of
clever optimization, so I expect it to perform well in real
trading.
Still, until that happens, it behooves all of us to be aware of
the difference between backtested and live trading results.
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I'll tell you when to worry...
SPY system scale in 2nd entry
Posted by auni on 6th of Jun 2011 at 11:37 pm
When a SPY Trade System signal shows up on your mobile devise and, everyone is all jacked up about the trade because, everyone feels all warm and fuzzy about the signal... then you need to worry.
Otherwise, the consensus will always be wrong. It has to be. Something like 92% of all trades places, lose money. That sort of means that 92% of us are losers. I'm not pointing any fingers, but read the posts on this SPY forum when this system gives a buy. And, wait until someday when it gives a fourth buy, which is statistically the biggest winner. I bet it will be harder than heck to take that fourth trade and I can't wait to see the posts when Matt gives one of those number 4 signals.
I learned it many years ago. My gut doesn't work for trading. It is totally wrong if I listen to it. So, I coined my own saying and taped it to my computer 10 years ago: "Your brain is for trading and your gut is for eating."
So, Matt, you are just going to have to get thick skinned because, I bet the psychology doesn't change much from signal to signal. And, that's a good thing.
Manage risk,
Auni (Gold-N-Eye)
guts...
Posted by zwyss on 7th of Jun 2011 at 02:32 am
My gut told me that my SPY bid @128.88 gets filled afterhours and I went to sleep but unfortunately this was not the case and futures are now up a few points. Next time I probably won't try to get a better fill...
Your gut...
Posted by burkmere on 7th of Jun 2011 at 10:58 am
Over the past 16 years the System has been much smarter than our "gut.". ;)
True, and I'm following the
Posted by algyros on 7th of Jun 2011 at 01:05 pm
True, and I'm following the system regardless of what how my emotions conspire to undermine my trading.
However, we should be aware that the overwhelming majority of those "16 years" are backtested, not traded live. From what I know of the system, it appears to be robust and not the product of clever optimization, so I expect it to perform well in real trading.
Still, until that happens, it behooves all of us to be aware of the difference between backtested and live trading results.