that we get a signal to go long today....
! QE2 is supposedly over and an ugly
jobs report will probably come out tomorrow...small crash anyone?
Then again, yesterday was the second time a signal was not
reached and the market continued lower...I wonder if there are any
stats showing missed signals being a good indicator for the next
day's continuation of a move?
perthx - IDK, I mean they already expect the jobs data to not be
that good, over the last couple years the market has generally
rallied on Friday Jobs day. Therefore I think the system
would have been fine going into Jobs
again it's one of those things, if the market rockets up on Jobs
data, we'll say we wish the system had went long yesterday, but if
the jobs data caused a market sell off, we'll say we are glad the
system didn't go long.
so really it's best not to think about it too much
nah, my comments were meant more tongue in cheek. Pretty sure if
I think the markets will do X, then they will in fact do Y or W!!
That is the beauty of this SPY system....I don't have to really
'worry' about it, just have to keep myself from 'over thinking'
it!!
Here we go, another possible end of day drama...I think I am
getting hooked on 'em!!
Posted by sschulman on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 12:20 pm
A System is supposed to take the worry out of your trading.
What's the point if you're going to worry about the system being
wrong this time.
Yes it's always possible to have one bad trade that is outside
the statistics of all those years of backtesting.
Nevertheless, I'm following the system. :-) The rest is money
management.
Not for any fundamental reason, but the birth-death adjustment
for business creation may add as much as 200K to the number (Art
Cashin's been keeping tabs on this). After yesterday's low ADP
number, the consensus for tomorrow has come way down. Low
expectations and an upside number could give an excuse, however
illusory, for a strong positive reaction. It will really be
oversold conditions getting relieved, but the talking heads will
put it to 'job-creation'.
actually worried now
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 11:43 am
that we get a signal to go long today....
! QE2 is supposedly over and an ugly
jobs report will probably come out tomorrow...small crash anyone?
Then again, yesterday was the second time a signal was not reached and the market continued lower...I wonder if there are any stats showing missed signals being a good indicator for the next day's continuation of a move?
perthx - IDK, I mean
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:28 pm
perthx - IDK, I mean they already expect the jobs data to not be that good, over the last couple years the market has generally rallied on Friday Jobs day. Therefore I think the system would have been fine going into Jobs
again it's one of those things, if the market rockets up on Jobs data, we'll say we wish the system had went long yesterday, but if the jobs data caused a market sell off, we'll say we are glad the system didn't go long.
so really it's best not to think about it too much
what, me worry?
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 03:39 pm
nah, my comments were meant more tongue in cheek. Pretty sure if I think the markets will do X, then they will in fact do Y or W!! That is the beauty of this SPY system....I don't have to really 'worry' about it, just have to keep myself from 'over thinking' it!!
Here we go, another possible end of day drama...I think I am getting hooked on 'em!!
Don't worry, be happy
Posted by sschulman on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 12:20 pm
A System is supposed to take the worry out of your trading. What's the point if you're going to worry about the system being wrong this time.
Yes it's always possible to have one bad trade that is outside the statistics of all those years of backtesting. Nevertheless, I'm following the system. :-) The rest is money management.
.....Susan
SPY system
Posted by diablo4 on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 02:20 pm
Susan....system worked fine for me...last trade I paid for the cost of the system twice over.....
and then some...love it!
Posted by mmunford on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 02:25 pm
and then some...love it!
Agreed. Just follow the system
Posted by pebs on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 12:41 pm
Agreed. Just follow the system and take the emotion/guessing out of it. Hardest thing to do sometimes, though.
There's a good chance the report will surprise on the upside:
Posted by lessarda on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 12:17 pm
Not for any fundamental reason, but the birth-death adjustment for business creation may add as much as 200K to the number (Art Cashin's been keeping tabs on this). After yesterday's low ADP number, the consensus for tomorrow has come way down. Low expectations and an upside number could give an excuse, however illusory, for a strong positive reaction. It will really be oversold conditions getting relieved, but the talking heads will put it to 'job-creation'.
wow i keep forgetting
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 12:20 pm
how they can make up any number they want, and then use the boys at CNBC to spin it...and then I saw this Fed POMO schedulea minute ago...
disagree...we could get a flush down to 129.50-130.50 but i really think the fed is going to use this data to grease the wheels for qe3....watch....
Posted by marketguy on 2nd of Jun 2011 at 11:56 am