Obvously the 3rd and 4th entries have the best risk/reward
ratios but imho the risk of not having a 3rd entry is far too high
to save too much money for this opportunity. More than 50% of the
trades won't have a 2nd entry. More than 50% of the 2'nd entries
will not have a 3'rd.
I'm not able to make the profitability stactistics for
every entry weighting but my guts tell me that a mix of the 40/60
system and the normal 40/20/20/20 could be quite
interesting.
I wouldn't want to miss the 3rd and 4th entry opportunity
because risk/reward ratios are very attractive, but I
also don't want too much of my money to be on the
sidelines after a signal so for me it makes sense something like
40/30/15/15 or 50/30/10/10 or 40/40/10/10.
I suppose that someone will do the math and find the
ultimate ratio....!
Also a nice entry ratio is when you just take the
percentage of the numbers of the 1, 2, 3 and 4 entry trades since
the start of the statistics. I didn't do the exact math, but then
we would have about 58/26/9/7
yeah just trade whatever you want. I may look at more
scale in %'s, but changing that on the SPY page is not easy, so I
will not do that willy nilly. Again I'm about providing you
guys with information so that you can choose from. Decide
which style fits you best.
For example I was advised by some colleagues to only
offer the single entry system, for simplicity. But I decided
to give you options to choose from
Now you've got me thinking about a single entry system 100% on
the second signal. It's funny how the quest never ends in search of
optimization, human nature I guess.
aharon - as per the trade history for the multi-entry system,
58% of the trades had only 1 entry signal. If you
ignored the 1st entry signal in hopes of getting a 2nd entry
signal, you would likely miss more than half the trades.
I'm aware of that, thanks for the insight, just curious what it
will do to the profit factor, since the 2nd entry trades should be
theoretically be lower risk entries. Purely fun speculation on my
part.
Matt - are you able to easily generate the statistics for a
4-entry system: 55%, 15%, 15%, 15%? If you don't want to go
there, no worries. The possibilities are endless.
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Posted by matt on 5th of May 2011 at 04:44 pm
which system has the best statistics?
Posted by zwyss on 6th of May 2011 at 03:34 am
Obvously the 3rd and 4th entries have the best risk/reward ratios but imho the risk of not having a 3rd entry is far too high to save too much money for this opportunity. More than 50% of the trades won't have a 2nd entry. More than 50% of the 2'nd entries will not have a 3'rd.
I'm not able to make the profitability stactistics for every entry weighting but my guts tell me that a mix of the 40/60 system and the normal 40/20/20/20 could be quite interesting.
I wouldn't want to miss the 3rd and 4th entry opportunity because risk/reward ratios are very attractive, but I also don't want too much of my money to be on the sidelines after a signal so for me it makes sense something like 40/30/15/15 or 50/30/10/10 or 40/40/10/10.
I suppose that someone will do the math and find the ultimate ratio....!
Also a nice entry ratio is when you just take the percentage of the numbers of the 1, 2, 3 and 4 entry trades since the start of the statistics. I didn't do the exact math, but then we would have about 58/26/9/7
yeah just trade whatever you
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2011 at 09:42 am
yeah just trade whatever you want. I may look at more scale in %'s, but changing that on the SPY page is not easy, so I will not do that willy nilly. Again I'm about providing you guys with information so that you can choose from. Decide which style fits you best.
For example I was advised by some colleagues to only offer the single entry system, for simplicity. But I decided to give you options to choose from
cool matt thank you, that
Posted by cwa82675 on 5th of May 2011 at 09:26 pm
cool matt thank you, that was very informative
Spy System
Posted by finam on 5th of May 2011 at 07:21 pm
I bought my 40% position. Do you signal us when to buy the other 60% or is is sometimes only one buy?
Thanks, Delfina
Now you've got me thinking
Posted by aharon on 5th of May 2011 at 07:11 pm
Now you've got me thinking about a single entry system 100% on the second signal. It's funny how the quest never ends in search of optimization, human nature I guess.
aharon - as per the
Posted by yojimbo on 5th of May 2011 at 07:32 pm
aharon - as per the trade history for the multi-entry system, 58% of the trades had only 1 entry signal. If you ignored the 1st entry signal in hopes of getting a 2nd entry signal, you would likely miss more than half the trades.
I'm aware of that, thanks
Posted by aharon on 5th of May 2011 at 07:50 pm
I'm aware of that, thanks for the insight, just curious what it will do to the profit factor, since the 2nd entry trades should be theoretically be lower risk entries. Purely fun speculation on my part.
In search of the holy
Posted by yojimbo on 5th of May 2011 at 08:01 pm
In search of the holy grail, eh? Have a good evening!
Yeah, pretty much.
Posted by aharon on 5th of May 2011 at 11:11 pm
Yeah, pretty much.
Matt - are you able
Posted by yojimbo on 5th of May 2011 at 05:01 pm
Matt - are you able to easily generate the statistics for a 4-entry system: 55%, 15%, 15%, 15%? If you don't want to go there, no worries. The possibilities are endless.