Hopefully you all understand some Matt's comments under the SPY
tab. if you can answer, it would be much appreciated.
1. Under Multi-Entry tab, Statistics, 1st paragraph, Matt says
"the images below show trade stats for the Single Entry System.:
Does he mean actually mean 'Multi" as it says at the top of the
color charts? What time frame is the $100K/Multi that yields a net
profit of $337? In the pink box in the chart..."where as TS treats
them individually". What is "TS"?
2. If u decide on the multi system and want to allocate, say
$100K, then if the system triggers a first entry, u put in 40%. If
it triggers a second entry due to the market going down, then 20%.
If the market continues up, you are in 60% of your $100K, never
fully invested with your allocation, right?
3. Single entry: $100k = 17.6 mil net profit compounded over 16
years, multi-entry: $100K = 2.8 million net profit compounded over
16 years (i'm assuming 16 years, but it doesn't actually say this
on the Stat Compounding page.) Sooooo...aside from a bit of a
bigger draw down, the profit potential assuming the single entry
commitment is 6X greater over a 16 year period. Correct, or did I
miss something? Seems to me that only being in 50% of the time, the
system to go with is single entry. Pls argue otherwise.
3. Perhaps we could have a calculator on the site that would
show us what our allocation would turn into over time, compounded
and not compounded.
Posted by twedlediva on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:58 pm
Thanks ascr. I understand reduced losses for multi vs single,
but the return far out weights the losses over a long period of
time. Just curious what system everyone is going with...
It depends on how many dollars you are committing, what
percentage of your portfolio it represents, and how much risk you
can tolerate. The largest drawdown since 1994 is 10% (single
entry), but that is no guarantee that there will not be a larger
drawdown in the future. Will you stick with the system if
your $1,000,000 turns into $900,000 or less in a matter of
days?
Posted by twedlediva on 29th of Apr 2011 at 05:28 pm
Yojimbo,
I only see 3.36% as the largest losing trade. At 91% of
profitable trades and 35% ARR, that beats anything I have seen in
30 years. And yes, if there was a draw down of 10% or more, I would
stick with the system. I plan on taking a chunk of my retirement $
and just stay with the plan. The back testing proves, no matter
what, u will come out ahead, and I need that for a certain part of
my portfolio in these crazy times. Good luck.
Drawdown is not necessarily the same as the largest losing
trade. Go to the Single Entry Overview/Statistics tab, then
scroll down to Run-Up/Drawdown. It shows the largest drawdown
is $10,041.50. That's about 10% (of $100,000). It also
shows that this drawdown occurred on March 6, 2009. To see
this drawdown on Matt's screen capture, go to the Single Entry
Trade Examples tab and then find the long trade that was entered on
Feb 23, 2009. At the close on Feb 23, the system bought 1330
shares of SPY @ $74.65 = $99,284.50. On March 6, at
the low of the day ($67.10), those shares were worth
$89,243.00 (1330 @ $67.10). That's a drawdown of
$10,041.50 (99,284.50 - 89,243.00). Between Feb 23 and Mar 6
(9 trading days), the value of 1330 shares went from $99,284.50 to
$89,243.00, which is more than a 10% drop. If you had
invested approx $99,284.50 on Feb 23, could you stomach being
down by $10,041.50 in a matter of days. And what if you
had started with $1,000,000 on Feb 23? Could you stomach
being down by more than $100,000 on Mar 6? Drawdown
- See what I mean, jelly bean?
Posted by twedlediva on 29th of Apr 2011 at 04:29 pm
I've read all of Matt's System pages several times. I have
compared the systems and have concluded the single is the way to go
for me as well. I'm committing funds and 100% compounding
till i'm dead!! It's like a warm blanket and certainly gives peace
of mind, ad day trading is just not my thing...thanks for your
thoughts...
Posted by lessarda on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:39 pm
that is, as Matt outlines in one of the ME pages, taking a 100%
position followed by 50% add-ons up to 250% or committing as much
as 2.5x capital to the ME system. I will post the change in returns
later.
Under Multi-Entry tab, Statistics, 1st paragraph, Matt says "the
images below show trade stats for the Single Entry System.: Does he
mean actually mean 'Multi" as it says at the top of the color
charts?
Yes
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
SPY System
Posted by twedlediva on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:18 pm
Hopefully you all understand some Matt's comments under the SPY tab. if you can answer, it would be much appreciated.
1. Under Multi-Entry tab, Statistics, 1st paragraph, Matt says "the images below show trade stats for the Single Entry System.: Does he mean actually mean 'Multi" as it says at the top of the color charts? What time frame is the $100K/Multi that yields a net profit of $337? In the pink box in the chart..."where as TS treats them individually". What is "TS"?
2. If u decide on the multi system and want to allocate, say $100K, then if the system triggers a first entry, u put in 40%. If it triggers a second entry due to the market going down, then 20%. If the market continues up, you are in 60% of your $100K, never fully invested with your allocation, right?
3. Single entry: $100k = 17.6 mil net profit compounded over 16 years, multi-entry: $100K = 2.8 million net profit compounded over 16 years (i'm assuming 16 years, but it doesn't actually say this on the Stat Compounding page.) Sooooo...aside from a bit of a bigger draw down, the profit potential assuming the single entry commitment is 6X greater over a 16 year period. Correct, or did I miss something? Seems to me that only being in 50% of the time, the system to go with is single entry. Pls argue otherwise.
3. Perhaps we could have a calculator on the site that would show us what our allocation would turn into over time, compounded and not compounded.
Thanks to all who take the time to respond!!
Single vs. Multi The value of
Posted by ascr on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:36 pm
Single vs. Multi
The value of the Multi over the Single is the reduced losses. This is different than draw down.
Single vs multi
Posted by twedlediva on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:58 pm
Thanks ascr. I understand reduced losses for multi vs single, but the return far out weights the losses over a long period of time. Just curious what system everyone is going with...
It depends on how many
Posted by yojimbo on 29th of Apr 2011 at 04:47 pm
It depends on how many dollars you are committing, what percentage of your portfolio it represents, and how much risk you can tolerate. The largest drawdown since 1994 is 10% (single entry), but that is no guarantee that there will not be a larger drawdown in the future. Will you stick with the system if your $1,000,000 turns into $900,000 or less in a matter of days?
Yojimbo, I only see 3.36% as
Posted by twedlediva on 29th of Apr 2011 at 05:28 pm
Yojimbo,
I only see 3.36% as the largest losing trade. At 91% of profitable trades and 35% ARR, that beats anything I have seen in 30 years. And yes, if there was a draw down of 10% or more, I would stick with the system. I plan on taking a chunk of my retirement $ and just stay with the plan. The back testing proves, no matter what, u will come out ahead, and I need that for a certain part of my portfolio in these crazy times. Good luck.
twedlediva, Drawdown is not necessarily the same
Posted by yojimbo on 29th of Apr 2011 at 07:10 pm
twedlediva,
Drawdown is not necessarily the same as the largest losing trade. Go to the Single Entry Overview/Statistics tab, then scroll down to Run-Up/Drawdown. It shows the largest drawdown is $10,041.50. That's about 10% (of $100,000). It also shows that this drawdown occurred on March 6, 2009. To see this drawdown on Matt's screen capture, go to the Single Entry Trade Examples tab and then find the long trade that was entered on Feb 23, 2009. At the close on Feb 23, the system bought 1330 shares of SPY @ $74.65 = $99,284.50. On March 6, at the low of the day ($67.10), those shares were worth $89,243.00 (1330 @ $67.10). That's a drawdown of $10,041.50 (99,284.50 - 89,243.00). Between Feb 23 and Mar 6 (9 trading days), the value of 1330 shares went from $99,284.50 to $89,243.00, which is more than a 10% drop. If you had invested approx $99,284.50 on Feb 23, could you stomach being down by $10,041.50 in a matter of days. And what if you had started with $1,000,000 on Feb 23? Could you stomach being down by more than $100,000 on Mar 6? Drawdown - See what I mean, jelly bean?
I'm going with the Single.
Posted by ascr on 29th of Apr 2011 at 04:02 pm
I'm going with the Single.
single entry
Posted by twedlediva on 29th of Apr 2011 at 04:29 pm
I've read all of Matt's System pages several times. I have compared the systems and have concluded the single is the way to go for me as well. I'm committing funds and 100% compounding till i'm dead!! It's like a warm blanket and certainly gives peace of mind, ad day trading is just not my thing...thanks for your thoughts...
single for me with 3x etf. I want to retire tomorrow
Posted by onoffon on 29th of Apr 2011 at 04:34 pm
"What time frame is the
Posted by ascr on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:32 pm
"What time frame is the $100K/Multi that yields a net profit of $337"
1995-today
"What is "TS""
TradeStation
"If the market continues up, you are in 60% of your $100K, never fully invested with your allocation, right?"
In your scenario that is correct.
I've done a spreadsheet on adjusting the MultiEntry to 250% of SingleEntry...
Posted by lessarda on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:39 pm
that is, as Matt outlines in one of the ME pages, taking a 100% position followed by 50% add-ons up to 250% or committing as much as 2.5x capital to the ME system. I will post the change in returns later.
TS means TradeStation
Posted by yojimbo on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:29 pm
TS means TradeStation
Under Multi-Entry tab, Statistics, 1st
Posted by ascr on 29th of Apr 2011 at 03:28 pm
Under Multi-Entry tab, Statistics, 1st paragraph, Matt says "the images below show trade stats for the Single Entry System.: Does he mean actually mean 'Multi" as it says at the top of the color charts?
Yes