He just pisses me off with some of his idiot views on
politics...which is why I won;t work with him anymore...he should
stick to programming...politics is a good way to lose
customers.
Ever notice that someone s good at one thing, can be absolutely
awful at something not in their realm of knowledge?
If you think you are close to a top....and its time to get
short.... here is an idea... Go out to dec
and Buy way In THE MONEY puts on the
SPY. For example..
a 160 SPY DEC PUT is around 32.50 with a 92
DElta. You are losing money if
the SPY keeps going up... and you collect 92
cents/100 as the SPY goes down. WIth
the SPY at 131.30 You are only
paying about 2.80 in time
premium.. The advantage
you have here is that you can "CASH FLOW" your puts... for
example you can sell the May 1250 puts against them for
1.55... or swing trade the puts depending on the
market. It's not an easy trade....but
if the market tanks.. it should be a good hedge. Just a
thought
This site should have a blogroll column on it. Seriously guys. I
just mentioned this earlier today with respect to some guy saying
the Dollar is dead. His track record from everything I have
searched wasn't good and his the dollar is dead article was simply
headline grabbing journalism. Surely you can all see that???
In terms of Peter, his systems are incredibly strong. Out of
this world and better than anything I can or probably ever will be
able to code. I get PFs 5-20. He gets north of 50 I think.
Astronomical. So no doubting his record at objective system
writing
In terms of his market calls, I recall 2 previous ones. One was
predicting a c20% fall in Q4 2009 and the other was predicting a
c20% fall again in Q4 2010. So from my perspective and unless
anyone has any empirical evidence to the contrary, its something I
wouldn't read anything into.
marketguy -- just to keep things clear -- the daily M3 switch
Matt shows is his own setting. It has nothing to do with
Peter Campbell except that Peter coded the indicator. But he
doesn't use or show that indicator with those settings on his
blog. That's a BPT thing.
thats a fair question and i have no idea. But you must remember.
His systems are swing trading systems which from memory have a
trade lasting 1-7days. Something like that. These end of the world
or catastrophe or mini crash or major correction calls are several
weeks or 2-3month calls. The 2 are different
Think Michael sums up his systems well. They are not correlated
or related to his personal opinion.
vimal -- Peter has systems running on daily/weekly time frames,
down to minute time frames. So its all very hedged.
While a longer term system could be short and having a drawdown,
shorter term systems can be making money on the long side, etc.
Peter in his writing is offering his general analysis, thoughts
and opinion about the markets. But he never says "go short
tomorrow" or "go long tomorrow". Because he's not trading
forecasts and opinions, even his own. Meanwhile his
systems are not forecasting anything and not thinking anything --
they are just going about the business of executing
algorithms. If what peter forecasts actually occurs, his
systems will have him on the right side of the trade most of the
time -- better than 90%. If his forecast is wrong, his
systems will still be on the right aside of the trade most of the
time, even though his forecast will be wrong. If he never
wrote anything contrary to what the systems are doing he would
never be able to write a forecast or opinion, but could only say
where his systems are right at the moment. And also, some
will be long, some will be short at the same time depending on
time-frame.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
peter campbell says get out. we will see if he is right
Posted by onoffon on 25th of Mar 2011 at 04:42 pm
http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/
Title: yes, he's a great
Posted by brophy on 25th of Mar 2011 at 06:06 pm
He just pisses me off with some of his idiot views on politics...which is why I won;t work with him anymore...he should stick to programming...politics is a good way to lose customers.
Ever notice that someone s good at one thing, can be absolutely awful at something not in their realm of knowledge?
Yes, especially scientists who think they're philosophers & theologians...
Posted by lessarda on 25th of Mar 2011 at 07:51 pm
not the first time he's
Posted by marketguy on 26th of Mar 2011 at 04:52 pm
not the first time he's made this call...I fell under all these permabear spells last year....cost me more than I can comprehend...
Here is an idea.
Posted by zach06 on 26th of Mar 2011 at 05:33 pm
If you think you are close to a top....and its time to get short.... here is an idea... Go out to dec and Buy way In THE MONEY puts on the SPY. For example.. a 160 SPY DEC PUT is around 32.50 with a 92 DElta. You are losing money if the SPY keeps going up... and you collect 92 cents/100 as the SPY goes down. WIth the SPY at 131.30 You are only paying about 2.80 in time premium.. The advantage you have here is that you can "CASH FLOW" your puts... for example you can sell the May 1250 puts against them for 1.55... or swing trade the puts depending on the market. It's not an easy trade....but if the market tanks.. it should be a good hedge. Just a thought
This site should have a
Posted by vimal on 25th of Mar 2011 at 04:50 pm
This site should have a blogroll column on it. Seriously guys. I just mentioned this earlier today with respect to some guy saying the Dollar is dead. His track record from everything I have searched wasn't good and his the dollar is dead article was simply headline grabbing journalism. Surely you can all see that???
In terms of Peter, his systems are incredibly strong. Out of this world and better than anything I can or probably ever will be able to code. I get PFs 5-20. He gets north of 50 I think. Astronomical. So no doubting his record at objective system writing
In terms of his market calls, I recall 2 previous ones. One was predicting a c20% fall in Q4 2009 and the other was predicting a c20% fall again in Q4 2010. So from my perspective and unless anyone has any empirical evidence to the contrary, its something I wouldn't read anything into.
I stress.....his systems are second to none
vimal...his m3 switch is "green"....and
Posted by marketguy on 26th of Mar 2011 at 04:56 pm
vimal...his m3 switch is "green"....and he's predicting a "crash" early next week....what am I missing?
marketguy -- just to keep
Posted by Michael on 26th of Mar 2011 at 05:17 pm
marketguy -- just to keep things clear -- the daily M3 switch Matt shows is his own setting. It has nothing to do with Peter Campbell except that Peter coded the indicator. But he doesn't use or show that indicator with those settings on his blog. That's a BPT thing.
thanks vimal, then my question is why does he write stuff that seems contrary to what his systems are doing
Posted by rikkwan on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:07 pm
is this a personal crusade of his or what?
he probably has a timeshare
Posted by vimal on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:22 pm
he probably has a timeshare in Libya thats just gone belly up so hes a bit cheesed off
Only joking. Sure its not a personal crusade. Just his opinion/thoughts. Overall he is a great guy.
Right, I am off for a beer or 6
thats a fair question and
Posted by vimal on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:20 pm
thats a fair question and i have no idea. But you must remember. His systems are swing trading systems which from memory have a trade lasting 1-7days. Something like that. These end of the world or catastrophe or mini crash or major correction calls are several weeks or 2-3month calls. The 2 are different
Think Michael sums up his systems well. They are not correlated or related to his personal opinion.
vimal -- Peter has systems
Posted by Michael on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:24 pm
vimal -- Peter has systems running on daily/weekly time frames, down to minute time frames. So its all very hedged. While a longer term system could be short and having a drawdown, shorter term systems can be making money on the long side, etc.
Peter in his writing is
Posted by Michael on 25th of Mar 2011 at 05:18 pm
Peter in his writing is offering his general analysis, thoughts and opinion about the markets. But he never says "go short tomorrow" or "go long tomorrow". Because he's not trading forecasts and opinions, even his own. Meanwhile his systems are not forecasting anything and not thinking anything -- they are just going about the business of executing algorithms. If what peter forecasts actually occurs, his systems will have him on the right side of the trade most of the time -- better than 90%. If his forecast is wrong, his systems will still be on the right aside of the trade most of the time, even though his forecast will be wrong. If he never wrote anything contrary to what the systems are doing he would never be able to write a forecast or opinion, but could only say where his systems are right at the moment. And also, some will be long, some will be short at the same time depending on time-frame.