Another component went on a buy signal today in for the BPGDM.
Yesterday the BPGDM closed at 80%; currently it's 83.33%.
The 8 day MA is at 82.92%. However regarding the
system, with the BPGDM up so high, I may treat the system as going
flat instead of going long. However you can do what you want,
if you want to go long, then set an initial stop of 8% and move it
down to 6% after 5 trading days. Remember it would be as of
closing prices today. However I would personally use a 15 and
60 min GDX chart for timing for you exits instead of waiting for
the BPGDM to cross back below the 8 day MA since it is slow to
respond.
Thanks for clarification on GDX, i will be flat here as the
official rules would mean selling any long
basically straight away following the system, which is
somewhat pointless IMHO.
Regarding the system and emotions, all I stated was that today's
occurrence was outside of the system rules, there has never been a
crossover of the 8 day MA this high in the 80's, which was at 83.3%
today. Also per the system rules, you are to sell when the
system goes over 83.5% and so it's crossing up very close to the
sell parameter.
That's why I said while I do not have a high degree of
confidence on this long, you could go long with your 8% initial
stop, or just go flat. Since I have no historical data of
this occurring in the past, I do not know. The system
has always been a slight work in progress since I do not have a lot
of historical data.
Otherwise this week has been a hell week in my personal life
with so many family things going on, I've been working non stop and
just can't keep up. I will update the GDX page as soon as I
can, sorry for all the confusion.
Just to clarify: the "official" system is going long, but,
naturally, members can choose to go flat. Is that correct?
What I'm not clear about is what you mean by "I may treat the
system as going flat instead of going long." By that do you
mean that you, personally, will go flat? Or are you adding a
new rule to the system?
I'm trying to understand what the statistics of the system will
be based on. If the system goes flat today, even though it
should go long, then the statistics will reflect a discretionary
move or be the product of a rule change.
It says in my comments that I have not decided yet.
However I may just treat it as flat since the system has
never went long this high, but I have not decided. But you
can personally choose to go long if you want and either use the
BPGDM crossing below the 8 MA or use a 15 or 60 min chart as your
exits.
In "normal times" I guess what you are saying then is that the
system will not long when the BPGDM is at 83.3 or at such a high
level. But I guess these are not normal times because of the
money printing by our gov't. So the real question I guess is
if the GDX goes
parabolicalong
with Gold, then will we make a trading system exception here and go
for it?
Yes rikkwan - that is a good question, does GDX go parabolic and
if so, then yes going long even up here will do well, hard to say.
Again if you choose too, just place an 8% stop for 5 trading
days, then move it down to 6%. Or use the 60 and 15 min
charts for better timing which is what I personally like to do.
I think the GDX is going to do what the SPX does, what I mean,
if the SPX makes a new high, then I think GDX will as well.
If somehow SPX does not, then I don't think GDX will
either
BPGDM will cross over the 8 day MA today
Posted by matt on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 10:25 am
Another component went on a buy signal today in for the BPGDM. Yesterday the BPGDM closed at 80%; currently it's 83.33%. The 8 day MA is at 82.92%. However regarding the system, with the BPGDM up so high, I may treat the system as going flat instead of going long. However you can do what you want, if you want to go long, then set an initial stop of 8% and move it down to 6% after 5 trading days. Remember it would be as of closing prices today. However I would personally use a 15 and 60 min GDX chart for timing for you exits instead of waiting for the BPGDM to cross back below the 8 day MA since it is slow to respond.
Thanks for clarification on GDX,
Posted by maxeaus on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 04:02 pm
Thanks for clarification on GDX, i will be flat here as the official rules would mean selling any long basically straight away following the system, which is somewhat pointless IMHO.
Please note that the spreedsheet
Posted by cherryw on 3rd of Dec 2010 at 07:35 am
Please note that the spreedsheet posted a profit instead of lost for this trade
Well, unless it goes parabolic.
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 10:09 pm
Well, unless it goes parabolic.
That being said , is
Posted by cherryw on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 10:01 pm
That being said , is this still a mechanical systems with emotions all over ?
Regarding the system and emotions,
Posted by matt on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 11:28 pm
Regarding the system and emotions, all I stated was that today's occurrence was outside of the system rules, there has never been a crossover of the 8 day MA this high in the 80's, which was at 83.3% today. Also per the system rules, you are to sell when the system goes over 83.5% and so it's crossing up very close to the sell parameter.
That's why I said while I do not have a high degree of confidence on this long, you could go long with your 8% initial stop, or just go flat. Since I have no historical data of this occurring in the past, I do not know. The system has always been a slight work in progress since I do not have a lot of historical data.
Otherwise this week has been a hell week in my personal life with so many family things going on, I've been working non stop and just can't keep up. I will update the GDX page as soon as I can, sorry for all the confusion.
Just to clarify: the "official"
Posted by algyros on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 10:44 am
Just to clarify: the "official" system is going long, but, naturally, members can choose to go flat. Is that correct?
What I'm not clear about is what you mean by "I may treat the system as going flat instead of going long." By that do you mean that you, personally, will go flat? Or are you adding a new rule to the system?
I'm trying to understand what the statistics of the system will be based on. If the system goes flat today, even though it should go long, then the statistics will reflect a discretionary move or be the product of a rule change.
It says in my comments
Posted by matt on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 10:47 am
It says in my comments that I have not decided yet. However I may just treat it as flat since the system has never went long this high, but I have not decided. But you can personally choose to go long if you want and either use the BPGDM crossing below the 8 MA or use a 15 or 60 min chart as your exits.
My question concerns what you
Posted by algyros on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 10:54 am
My question concerns what you haven't decided yet. Have you not decided to change the rules, or to override them?
This is important because it involves the nature of rule-based trading.
gdx
Posted by fixdgear on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 10:29 am
so if u were short from the last post then today is the stop out indeed correct?..
parabolic gdx?
Posted by rikkwan on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 01:12 pm
In "normal times" I guess what you are saying then is that the system will not long when the BPGDM is at 83.3 or at such a high level. But I guess these are not normal times because of the money printing by our gov't. So the real question I guess is if the GDX goes parabolicalong with Gold, then will we make a trading system exception here and go for it?
Yes rikkwan - that is
Posted by matt on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 01:26 pm
Yes rikkwan - that is a good question, does GDX go parabolic and if so, then yes going long even up here will do well, hard to say. Again if you choose too, just place an 8% stop for 5 trading days, then move it down to 6%. Or use the 60 and 15 min charts for better timing which is what I personally like to do.
I think the GDX is going to do what the SPX does, what I mean, if the SPX makes a new high, then I think GDX will as well. If somehow SPX does not, then I don't think GDX will either
was there an alert sent
Posted by john9o9 on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 04:33 pm
was there an alert sent out onthis? I didn't get anything.
I got it at 3:52pmEST
Posted by stevedfw on 2nd of Dec 2010 at 04:41 pm
I got it at 3:52pmEST today via email.