Jim,

Make it a no Brainer!

Use the 5-3 Summation index on Matt's long term indicators page, we are close to crossing but no cigar, If you don't have time to watch your trades every hour, then I would wait for the next cross of the stochastics, or the RSI 5 dropping below the 70 line. Do some homework and you will find that if you buy long, ex. FAS when the Summation stochastics and RSI turn up above 20, then go short FAZ when they turn down, you will make a ton of money, and won't stress out any more.

Hope this helps! It works for me!

Jim,

(FAZ,SDS,TZA,and SRS) are not equities I would hold for a long period of time. They are short term trading vehicles. The only way I might hold i s short if I can get shares. e.g. short FAS if you think the market is going down. Either way, don't hold too long. In choppy markets you can get killed with the daily resets.

I've been using some 15 minute charts to get a trend direction and then buying and holding TNA/TZA for a few days. Or even a few hours like Friday afternoon. I would not hold any of these for a long time. Catching the recent "bottom" on July 5th and holding long was a tough thing to do as these move very quickly.

Many "experts" are calling for a big drop in the markets, so that probably means we will be going up. Who knows what will really happen?

As Matt said, have a plan and do your homework. Are you talking 401K/IRA/529 money? Or short term trading money? What? I have different strategies for different accounts. My 401K money is 75% in stocks right now. I have an IRA in 75% cash (I switch the cash from TZA or TNA depending on the markets.) Right now all I see is chop so I've been in cash for the last two weeks. But I am up 20% in that account over the last 2 months.

...and I have two account where I go to cash each night. One for futures only and one for stocks and ETFs like TNA/FAZ/VXX etc. It all depends on your specific goals for that money.

I'm not saying do what I do, but know what you want to do and have a plan based on when you will need the money.

Jim - after hrs is now closed so you can't do anything now from my post, however as far as this market, I'm pretty much taking it one day at a time.  I'm swinging some individual stocks somewhat, like MON and a few on the watchlist, but I'm also locking in some profits on the first moves because this market is very volatile and you can give your gains back fast, like today if you were short and didn't take some profits. 

Last night Steve said that today would be a tough day and it was, I shorted in the morning and made some decent coin on the downside, then the market consolidated and at first I was thinking that it could be forming a bear flag and would bust down again, however instead the market went sideways for so long that all the MA's came together, and then the 60 period MA crossed back up so I exited them and then played a few longs like GY etc. 

This is why it's also important to do some homework, Yes this morning the longer period stochastics crossed below 80% on the indexes on the 15 and 30 min charts and that was a short trigger (I took it), however the indexes also stopped going down right at major support, see the 60 min SPX chart, it bounced right at the uptrend line! 

Now as far as the general market, again this is why you have to define what you are trying to do, I'm not sure what your goals are:  Are you trying to hit it out of the park and catch a major move in your 401K or are you short term trading a trading accout, or swing trading or hybrid, depending on what you are trying to do, there's a different answer for all. 

For example on a longer term basis, all of our intermediate indicators are on buy signals and have been on buy signals for a while, some since June and all of them in early and mid July.  Also our long term indicators started turning back to buy signals a few weeks back and last week.  Also just to let you know, my long term SPX swing that goes gack to 1961 will switch and go back to a Long in the market on Monday's open! So that's another long term indicator going positive. So if you are looking at managing long term 401K's, then this is something to take notice of.  However if you are only managing a short term trading account, then don't pay attention to the Long Term indicators and systems.  Only pay attention to the intermediate indicators and daily and 60 min charts, 30 min charts etc.  

Also, try playing some individual stocks, personally I find it easier to trade good individual stocks with good patterns than I do the index ETF's.  Yes some of the watchlist plays get stopped out, but a lot of them work out and give nice trades.  So maybe try some of those, because playing a lot of these leveraged 2X and 3X ETF's can burn you, I've seen too many guys blow out their accounts trading these too heavy.  So just make sure you are using proper money management, not putting too much money % wise of your account into those and use stops.  Sadly we had one guy last year who bought FAZ in the $50's and held it down to the single digits, that is a classic no no, he had not stops, no plan, he got stuck in the 'hold and hope mode'. 

Now can these long term indicators be false long term signals, yes of course, but they could also be right as well.  While I see problems, I'm not in the camp that the market has to crash either, I mean it could but it may not and I'm seeing a lot of inverse H&S patterns as well like WMW, CSCO, etc, if those play out, then the market will only have a minor pullback and will rally again.  Next week is a craps shoot, today we bounced right off support at the lows, the uptrend line on the 60 min chart shown today and last night.  So on Monday I think we either follow right through to the upside and make a new high, or if we sell off right away, then I think these bear wedges could play out. 

And of course, don't beat yourself up too bad, this is a tough market to trade.  Do your home work at night, even 15 - 20 min really helps.  I find that too many guys don't do homework and then come into the day unprepared and are deer in the headlights when the market is moving quickly because they get emotional. 

To help this, make a trading plan/journal every day; just write some simple notes like support/resistance, and most important, if you are trading an index, write down your decisions ahead of time.  For example last night you might have written, the market is going to gap, see how the gap reacts, does it fill, does it not, if the 60 and 144 stochastics turn down, I will short the indexes and my stop will go here and I will cover if the indexes go back up to here.  Support is the uptrend line on the 60 min chart, if that breaks I will hold my shorts, however if we rally off it, then I will cover some of my shorts and my stop goes here, or I willl hold over the weekend but my stop goes here.

The point is, write down scenarios such as, if this happens, I will do this, but if that happens, I will do this etc.  The point is, you are making your decisions ahead of time so that when the time comes, you can then react automatically like a robot because you already made the decision in your notebook journal instead of thinking about it in the heat of the battle, because thinking causes emotion, and that causes you to hesitate and question yourself, etc. 

The purpose of a daily journal is to keep you focused and to make your decisions ahead of time so that you don't have to make them in the heat of battle!

anyway, sorry for the book, I think I rambled on a bit. hope this help

I have been short sds, faz, srs, for a long time now in and out sometimes with trades but currently under water on all 3 .Sometimes I think they/GOV/POWERS THAT BE/BILDEBERG GROUP/ will drag this rally out till after Nov elections,hope I am wrong again.

STILL VERY BEARISH FROM what i read daily not in the main media