However one point, yes for flipping coins, each flip has
identical odds because there is no interconnectedness.
However when you are dealing with the market, you have things like
supply, demand etc, you don't have that when flipping coins.
Each day for the market is different and days are connected,
whereas flipping coins each flip is the same.
let's say the market is up 15 days in a row, that is NOT the
same as flipping heads 15 times in a row. Why, because when
flipping a coin, each instance is the same. However if the
market is up 15 days in a row; well the emotion is different after
15 days up than it was when the market was only up 2 days in a
row. Also in markets you can run out of buyers, buyers get
exhausted etc. So how does this equate to flipping
coins? It doesn't.
It's like flipping a coin. Even if you've had 1000 heads
in a row, the odds of the next toss being a head are exactly the
same as they were for the first toss: 50/50.
of throwing a 1000 heads in a row?....I bet if you tried for the
rest of your life you wouldn't do it.
Example of a mutually exclusive event
What happens if we want to throw 1 and 6 in any
order?
This now means that we do not mind if the first
die is either 1 or 6, as we are still in with a chance. But
with the first die, if 1 falls uppermost, clearly It rules out the
possibility of 6 being uppermost, so the two Outcomes, 1 and 6, are
exclusive. One result directly affects the other. In this case, the
probability of throwing 1 or 6 with the first die is the sum of the
two probabilities, 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3.
The probability of the second die being favourable is still
1/6 as the second die can only be one specific number, a 6 if the
first die is 1, and vice versa.
Therefore the probability of throwing 1 and 6 in any order
with two dice is 1/3 x 1/6 = 1/18. Note that we multiplied the the
last two probabilities as they were independent of each
other!!!
Example of an independent event
The probability of throwing a double three with
two dice is the result of throwing three with the first die and
three with the second die. The total possibilities are, one from
six outcomes for the first event and one from six outcomes for the
second, Therefore (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36th or 2.77%.
The two events are independent, since whatever
happens to the first die cannot affect the throw of the second, the
probabilities are therefore multiplied, and remain 1/36th.
Monday Decline
Posted by honzer on 19th of Apr 2010 at 11:55 am
Is it possible ,so looks that way now,we wiill see
well it's certainly due, can't
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2010 at 11:58 am
well it's certainly due, can't have an up Monday all the time, just like a the Roulette table, if you've hit Black 20 times in a row, a Red is due
Statistically speaking...no matter how many
Posted by gateway on 19th of Apr 2010 at 01:26 pm
Statistically speaking...no matter how many "blacks" are hit in a row...it does not increase the probability for a "red" one single bit.
But...I bet you already knew that.
Yeah but we are not
Posted by bullau on 19th of Apr 2010 at 05:29 pm
Yeah but we are not playing with the normal laws of probabilities when there exists manipulation imo.......blatant manipulation.
manipluation? really? c'mon bullau...the China
Posted by marketguy on 19th of Apr 2010 at 05:59 pm
manipluation? really? c'mon bullau...the China mkt was only down " 5% " and we ended up being " GREEN " on the day (I'm being sarcastic btw)!
no manipulation there alright (just a sick freaking joke that "they" keep telling and telling and telling)....
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
lolol so much time spend
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2010 at 05:51 pm
lolol so much time spend on this topic?
I'm a scientist, I know about probabilities etc
However one point, yes for flipping coins, each flip has identical odds because there is no interconnectedness. However when you are dealing with the market, you have things like supply, demand etc, you don't have that when flipping coins. Each day for the market is different and days are connected, whereas flipping coins each flip is the same.
let's say the market is up 15 days in a row, that is NOT the same as flipping heads 15 times in a row. Why, because when flipping a coin, each instance is the same. However if the market is up 15 days in a row; well the emotion is different after 15 days up than it was when the market was only up 2 days in a row. Also in markets you can run out of buyers, buyers get exhausted etc. So how does this equate to flipping coins? It doesn't.
You're right, of courses, Matt.
Posted by algyros on 19th of Apr 2010 at 08:15 pm
You're right, of courses, Matt. But a lot of us were responding to your metaphor. A roulette table is like flipping a coin, not like the stock market.
Exactly...
Posted by saturn6 on 19th of Apr 2010 at 01:42 pm
As the wheel has no memory... but the law of probabilities?
No decline by the end of day!~
Posted by perthx on 19th of Apr 2010 at 03:28 pm
The wheel may not have a memory but that is the whole point ---Monday's are all about manipulation.
The law of probabilities is
Posted by gateway on 19th of Apr 2010 at 03:15 pm
The law of probabilities is not changed based on historic play. The probabilities are the same before every spin.
It's like flipping a coin.
Posted by algyros on 19th of Apr 2010 at 04:51 pm
It's like flipping a coin. Even if you've had 1000 heads in a row, the odds of the next toss being a head are exactly the same as they were for the first toss: 50/50.
What are the probabilities...
Posted by saturn6 on 19th of Apr 2010 at 05:18 pm
of throwing a 1000 heads in a row?....I bet if you tried for the rest of your life you wouldn't do it.
Example of a mutually exclusive event
What happens if we want to throw 1 and 6 in any order?
This now means that we do not mind if the first die is either 1 or 6, as we are still in with a chance. But with the first die, if 1 falls uppermost, clearly It rules out the possibility of 6 being uppermost, so the two Outcomes, 1 and 6, are exclusive. One result directly affects the other. In this case, the probability of throwing 1 or 6 with the first die is the sum of the two probabilities, 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3.
The probability of the second die being favourable is still 1/6 as the second die can only be one specific number, a 6 if the first die is 1, and vice versa.
Therefore the probability of throwing 1 and 6 in any order with two dice is 1/3 x 1/6 = 1/18. Note that we multiplied the the last two probabilities as they were independent of each other!!!
Example of an independent event
The probability of throwing a double three with two dice is the result of throwing three with the first die and three with the second die. The total possibilities are, one from six outcomes for the first event and one from six outcomes for the second, Therefore (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36th or 2.77%.
The two events are independent, since whatever happens to the first die cannot affect the throw of the second, the probabilities are therefore multiplied, and remain 1/36th.
Monday decline??
Posted by perthx on 19th of Apr 2010 at 12:55 pm
day is far from over, I still think they can run it into the close....and if the Dow is only off a few points no big deal ....
SPX 30 min Renko Chart
Posted by chlo888 on 19th of Apr 2010 at 12:04 pm
Matt/ Steve-
Will a sell signal on the 30 min Renko chart(two red boxes) convince you of the significance of this decline?
Thanks,
Glenn
Betting On 'Due's'
Posted by jwolfi1184 on 19th of Apr 2010 at 01:14 pm
As a sports bettor I have learned the 'hard way' to never bet on 'due's.' The markets are the same...you may be out of money before a 'due' comes in.