Lets let Matt confirm exactly what day above this is. According
to his various posts this is day 11 and there hasn't been a day 12
in market history. Of course with this crazy market never say never
LOL. Hopefully Matt will chime in fairly soon so we can still have
the opportunity to get into a inverse ETF before the market day
closes.
Matt has said the 11th day the SPX is above the 3 SMA
there is almost no drawdown based on many years of history. So
should we wait until the close and hopefully the SPX is at HOD to
try a put or inverse ETF or wait for the 12th day.
I'm a little confused because on Fri Dec 20 Matt said on the
blog that yesterday meaning Thursday the 19th was 7 days above the
3 SMA, That would mean Friday was the 8th day, yesterday the
9th day and today could potentially be the 10th day. Is that
a correct interpretation or was labeling Thursday Dec 19th the 7th
day incorrect?
I agree price is king, it's just that you have stated over the
last couple months that market tops are usually not formed when
there is a low level of bullish sentiment. I agree with that but
then there is other data like some of the indicators you post and
from the 2 articles I did that indicates most are very bullish so
there seems to be sentiment data that contradicts itself. Maybe its
a question of pick the data that correlates with your market view
LOL
It seems many people are actually quite bullish, I know Matt and
Steve keep pointing out that not that many people are bullish but
here are two reports that say just the opposite, one from Bank of
America and the other from Mark Hulbert who is a renowned expert
who has been tracking sentiment figures for many years. It's
confusing to me how experts can come to different conclusions
looking at the same general data. Although I would like to
believe the market can keep soaring higher because few are bullish,
when I see conclusions like the ones below it gives me pause. I
guess Matt and Steve are looking at a particular data set and
coming to one conclusion, and the below articles are looking at
other data and drawing different conclusions.
Here is a link to the article by Mark Hulbert as the whole
article will take up too much space to copy here. One of his main
points is that one of his sentiment indices is showing optimism
that exceeds 97% of daily readings since 2000. That’s why
contrarians, who bet against the consensus, are as bearish today as
they were bullish a year ago.
You have to remember KL is no longer the low cost company it was
before it announced they were buying Detour Gold which is a fairly
high cost producer. So if the deal goes through KL will be another
mid tier company with a industry average all in cost.
Considering that the marketplace will not give KL as high a
multiple as it did before the buyout. Its still a good company and
will follow the gold price but don't expect it to get back to its
previous multiple or P/E/
Right after I posted that gold pop $10 but the gold stock still
aren't really reacting to the upside, now gold is drop 10 and the
gold stocks at the low of the day again
Audio not playing on either of this weeks newsletters and as a
test I tried to play older newsletters and no audio on them either.
I have tried from 3 different computers so assume there is a server
problem on Breakpoint's servers.
Gold now $1,397 on COMEX as just spiked there, now back to
$1,388. What in the world is going on? I was joking when I said
maybe $1,400 at the NY open but almost made it there a few minutes
ago. This is typical of how perverse the markets are, to take
a huge jump overnight when most aren't watching leaving shorts
aghast in the morning. The only thing that makes sense to me
is a huge short squeeze, but the momentum behind it is really
powerful to power through a 6 year resistance level like
butter.
Gold at $1,387 on COMEX, sure is a odd for gold to be take out a
multiyear resistance level at a normally slow night session. At
this frenzied rate we will be at $1,400 by the NY open LOL
I notice for the last few months you guys no longer post the
COT's for gold. I read on another site the latest COT's released
Friday did not bode well for gold as commercials massively
increased their short positions. When you were posting the COT's on
the weekly gold charts it made it very easy to notice trends. Is
there some reason you no longer post the numbers?
I noticed in the weekend report the COT for gold was not
mentioned. The shutdown has been over for a while so was there any
COT report released Friday? Thanks
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Is there a chart of
Posted by victorh on 30th of Dec 2019 at 10:45 am
Is there a chart of the SPY that shows exactly where the 3day SMA is so we can tell when its hit
Lets let Matt confirm exactly
Matt has said the 11th day the SPX is above ...
Posted by victorh on 26th of Dec 2019 at 03:58 pm
Lets let Matt confirm exactly what day above this is. According to his various posts this is day 11 and there hasn't been a day 12 in market history. Of course with this crazy market never say never LOL. Hopefully Matt will chime in fairly soon so we can still have the opportunity to get into a inverse ETF before the market day closes.
Matt has said the 11th
Posted by victorh on 26th of Dec 2019 at 02:32 pm
Matt has said the 11th day the SPX is above the 3 SMA there is almost no drawdown based on many years of history. So should we wait until the close and hopefully the SPX is at HOD to try a put or inverse ETF or wait for the 12th day.
Today is the 11th day
Posted by victorh on 26th of Dec 2019 at 10:42 am
Today is the 11th day the SPX is above the 3 SMA. so would it be good to hedge now with a inverse ETF or wait until tomorrow?
I'm a little confused because
Posted by victorh on 24th of Dec 2019 at 09:19 am
I'm a little confused because on Fri Dec 20 Matt said on the blog that yesterday meaning Thursday the 19th was 7 days above the 3 SMA, That would mean Friday was the 8th day, yesterday the 9th day and today could potentially be the 10th day. Is that a correct interpretation or was labeling Thursday Dec 19th the 7th day incorrect?
I agree price is king,
It seems many people are actually quite bullish, I know ...
Posted by victorh on 17th of Dec 2019 at 04:49 pm
I agree price is king, it's just that you have stated over the last couple months that market tops are usually not formed when there is a low level of bullish sentiment. I agree with that but then there is other data like some of the indicators you post and from the 2 articles I did that indicates most are very bullish so there seems to be sentiment data that contradicts itself. Maybe its a question of pick the data that correlates with your market view LOL
It seems many people are
Posted by victorh on 17th of Dec 2019 at 04:04 pm
It seems many people are actually quite bullish, I know Matt and Steve keep pointing out that not that many people are bullish but here are two reports that say just the opposite, one from Bank of America and the other from Mark Hulbert who is a renowned expert who has been tracking sentiment figures for many years. It's confusing to me how experts can come to different conclusions looking at the same general data. Although I would like to believe the market can keep soaring higher because few are bullish, when I see conclusions like the ones below it gives me pause. I guess Matt and Steve are looking at a particular data set and coming to one conclusion, and the below articles are looking at other data and drawing different conclusions.
Here is a link to the article by Mark Hulbert as the whole article will take up too much space to copy here. One of his main points is that one of his sentiment indices is showing optimism that exceeds 97% of daily readings since 2000. That’s why contrarians, who bet against the consensus, are as bearish today as they were bullish a year ago.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-believe-stock-market-bulls-have-the-bears-locked-out-this-will-rattle-your-cage-2019-12-17?mod=mark-hulbert
You have to remember KL
KL seems to want to fill the gap from the ...
Posted by victorh on 11th of Dec 2019 at 07:20 pm
You have to remember KL is no longer the low cost company it was before it announced they were buying Detour Gold which is a fairly high cost producer. So if the deal goes through KL will be another mid tier company with a industry average all in cost. Considering that the marketplace will not give KL as high a multiple as it did before the buyout. Its still a good company and will follow the gold price but don't expect it to get back to its previous multiple or P/E/
SPY not hard to borrow
Greed is getting up there P/C at .59 - What's ...
Posted by victorh on 5th of Nov 2019 at 09:49 am
SPY not hard to borrow at all on Schwab or TDameritrade, must be a glitch somewhere
Right after I posted that
GDX collapsing along with other gold stocks while gold itself ...
Posted by victorh on 12th of Aug 2019 at 03:06 pm
Right after I posted that gold pop $10 but the gold stock still aren't really reacting to the upside, now gold is drop 10 and the gold stocks at the low of the day again
GDX collapsing along with other
Posted by victorh on 12th of Aug 2019 at 02:28 pm
GDX collapsing along with other gold stocks while gold itself is up, seems strange
Great newsletter but the audio
Posted by victorh on 5th of Aug 2019 at 07:59 pm
Great newsletter but the audio keeps fading in and out
What does a profit factor
ES system
Posted by victorh on 1st of Aug 2019 at 11:11 pm
What does a profit factor of 1500 mean and is or has that ES system gone long tonight? Thanks
Thanks Steve, works fine now
Audio not playing on either of this weeks newsletters and ...
Posted by victorh on 24th of Jun 2019 at 09:12 am
Thanks Steve, works fine now
Audio not playing on either
Posted by victorh on 24th of Jun 2019 at 09:01 am
Audio not playing on either of this weeks newsletters and as a test I tried to play older newsletters and no audio on them either. I have tried from 3 different computers so assume there is a server problem on Breakpoint's servers.
Gold now $1,397 on COMEX
Posted by victorh on 19th of Jun 2019 at 09:06 pm
Gold now $1,397 on COMEX as just spiked there, now back to $1,388. What in the world is going on? I was joking when I said maybe $1,400 at the NY open but almost made it there a few minutes ago. This is typical of how perverse the markets are, to take a huge jump overnight when most aren't watching leaving shorts aghast in the morning. The only thing that makes sense to me is a huge short squeeze, but the momentum behind it is really powerful to power through a 6 year resistance level like butter.
Gold at $1,387 on COMEX,
Posted by victorh on 19th of Jun 2019 at 08:57 pm
Gold at $1,387 on COMEX, sure is a odd for gold to be take out a multiyear resistance level at a normally slow night session. At this frenzied rate we will be at $1,400 by the NY open LOL
Why is gold exploding up
Posted by victorh on 19th of Jun 2019 at 04:20 pm
Why is gold exploding up $6 to $1,366 in just a few minutes after the 4pm NYSE close? Any news?
I notice for the last
Posted by victorh on 20th of May 2019 at 12:21 am
I notice for the last few months you guys no longer post the COT's for gold. I read on another site the latest COT's released Friday did not bode well for gold as commercials massively increased their short positions. When you were posting the COT's on the weekly gold charts it made it very easy to notice trends. Is there some reason you no longer post the numbers?
I noticed in the weekend
Posted by victorh on 11th of Feb 2019 at 11:31 am
I noticed in the weekend report the COT for gold was not mentioned. The shutdown has been over for a while so was there any COT report released Friday? Thanks