It seems many people are

    Posted by victorh on 17th of Dec 2019 at 04:04 pm

    It seems many people are actually quite bullish, I know Matt and Steve keep pointing out that not that many people are bullish but here are two reports that say just the opposite, one from Bank of America and the other from Mark Hulbert who is a renowned expert who has been tracking sentiment figures for many years.  It's confusing to me how experts can come to different conclusions looking at the same general data.  Although I would like to believe the market can keep soaring higher because few are bullish, when I see conclusions like the ones below it gives me pause. I guess Matt and Steve are looking at a particular data set and coming to one conclusion, and the below articles are looking at other data and drawing different conclusions.  

    Here is a link to the article by Mark Hulbert as the whole article will take up too much space to copy here. One of his main points is that one of his sentiment indices is showing optimism that exceeds 97% of daily readings since 2000. That’s why contrarians, who bet against the consensus, are as bearish today as they were bullish a year ago. 

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-believe-stock-market-bulls-have-the-bears-locked-out-this-will-rattle-your-cage-2019-12-17?mod=mark-hulbert

    I never said that many

    Posted by steve on 17th of Dec 2019 at 04:12 pm

    I never said that many are not bullish  - my advice is to focus first and foremost on price (I have posted several sentiment indicators showing greed recently).  Sentiment is like another oscillator (they are determined largely by price action). Trail up stops and manage your existing positions in accordance with your objectives and risk tolerance. 

    I agree price is king,

    Posted by victorh on 17th of Dec 2019 at 04:49 pm

    I agree price is king, it's just that you have stated over the last couple months that market tops are usually not formed when there is a low level of bullish sentiment. I agree with that but then there is other data like some of the indicators you post and from the 2 articles I did that indicates most are very bullish so there seems to be sentiment data that contradicts itself. Maybe its a question of pick the data that correlates with your market view LOL   

    Majority of professionals make wrong

    Posted by junkie on 17th of Dec 2019 at 05:57 pm

    Majority of professionals make wrong conclusions about this market. This fact has held true for the last seven years or so. The majority are always wrong on the market, this is how it works.

    What has worked for me in these conditions is automated systems, which deliver unbiased conclusions. Even technical analysis does not always work in this market.

    Gold has behaved like a currency lately, and it does not always trade technically. It seems that the indexes behave like a currency too recently for reasons that no one is willing to speak loudly. Very few understand what is going on in Europe, and that's a big hint. Good luck!

    Yep and the market went

    Posted by steve on 17th of Dec 2019 at 04:56 pm

    Yep and the market went higher over the last couple months did it not?  For example, if you listened to Hulbert you missed nearly 200 SPX points.  My advice is to avoid these prognosticators and focus on Price Action (valid triggers) that correspond with your style.  Have a stop in place and adjust accordingly as evidence changes.   

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