The CEO of Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) told Reuters that the demand for oil tankers is unexpectedly high right now as imports to China swell. This could be good news for other tanker lines like Nordic American Tankers Ltd. (NYSE: NAT) and Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK).

Saying that Frontline is “seeing an incredible amount” of contracts from the Persian Gulf, day rates have risen to $25,000-$30,000. That’s better than a doubling in just over a week.

The sudden jump in cargoes could be due to escalating tensions between Europe and Iran, with China taking Iranian crude at a lower price and adding to its inventories before the full effect of the sanctions hits Iran later this year.



Read more: Demand Rising for Oil Tankers (FRO, NAT, TK) - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/03/15/demand-rising-for-oil-tankers-fro-nat-tk/#ixzz1pDvwR2VB

Chart courtesy of the Macro Story.

http://live.twit.tv/

Last week, the estimated return/risk profile of the S&P 500 fell to the worst 2.5% of all observations in history on our measures. This is not a runaway bull market. Rather, it is a market that again stands near the highs of an extended but volatile trading range. I am convinced that the breakdown of the market from this range has been deferred only through repeated and extraordinary central bank actions.

http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-october/

These guys are the best of the best trend followers, with long term successful track records like Bill Dunn, and they are all sucking wind this year. 

As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks was characterized by an extremely unfavorable ensemble of conditions across valuations, sentiment, economic factors, and other conditions. Current conditions cluster with periods such as May 1962, October 1973, July 2001, and December 2007, all which produced 10-20% market losses in extremely short-order.

On the sentiment front,  Investors Intelligence reports that the percentage of advisory bears dropped below 30% last week, which has historically resulted in unrewarding market outcomes when valuations have been elevated even to a lesser extent than they are today.

Hard-Negative John P. Hussman, Ph.D. All rights reserved and actively enforced. Reprint Policy With the exception of extreme market conditions, I try not to wave my arms around about near-term market risks, but I think it's important to cut straight to the chase here. The present market environment warrants unusual concern, in my view. Based on a wide variety of evidence and its typical market implications over an ensemble of dozens of subsets of historical data, the expected return/risk profile of the stock market has shifted to hard-negative. This places us in a tightly defensive position. This isn't really a forecast in the sense that shifts in the evidence even over a period of a few weeks could move us to adjust our investment stance, but here and now we observe conditions that have often produced abrupt crash-like plunges.

Hi Steve,

You want to know if the results on the long-short-timing.com site are real.

Yes, I've traded the system for years. Basically, it has doubled my money roughly every three years. So, I don't care if a few trades lose money. I know it works. It's free. He doesn't have an agenda. And I can't find anything else with reasonable drawdowns that get this kind of performance. I feel safe with the bulk my capital in it. And here, I take individual trades from Matt and Steve. RIght now, ARO. That's it. That's all I do. Simple, but effective.

Best,

Steve

Matt,

Do you have another price target for ARO?

He posted a study on that a while ago. He uses the closing price on the day of the call, just like the Decision Moose guy does. And he showed that getting in the next days open (since 2003 if memory serves), gets you in on average better than 1% over entering on the day of the call. You can do better than that with the approach that I use. I have..

I've traded his system for a long time. I use 20 minute charts to cycle into the call, the next day after the call triggers. It works more often than not. So, if it's a long call I look for a dip in the cycle as my entry. That is my plan for tomorrow. It's not his responsibility to finesse the entry for us. Sometimes getting in on the day of the call works better, but he has posted stats showing cycling in the next day, works better.

Steve

Thanks Matt,

This one I put 25K into and am up 13%.

Point and figure target on percentage chart of 16: 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ARO,PLPADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G

Point and figure chart on traditional daily of 19.5

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ARO,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

P/E of 6

Guru analysis:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aro/guru-analysis

*** Short Call ***  Go Short QQQ at 9/30 close or higher.

  At the close on  9/30/11, we have a short call for our market timing model.  The QQQ’s close on Friday was $52.49 at that will be our target entry for tomorrow.   As usual, try to use a limit/conditional  order to get into the trade during the day.  For 2011, the QQQ Long/Short model portfolio return is +.37%. For the past twelve months ending September 2010, the return is +11.39%.   For 2011, the S&P-500 is -10.20% and for the past twelve months ending September 2010, the S&P-500 is flat when you include in dividends.

Got in this morning during the bounce in NASDAQ. That's an 80 point down move since the entry. We'll see how far this trade goes. His equity curve gave back more than usual on the last couple signals. Normally this is the best time to go into his system, as it tends to play catch up over the next 12 months. 

It's been a long day, since over three years, i've left all the money in the account, and cycled into each trade it's compounded about 120%. If I had made all the trades it would have more, and I don't use margin.

Thanks, Long-short-timing!!! This really saved my butt, and 35% per year the last 3 years. My wife is pleased. I called her at work. I'm so stupid though, the August 58 put on that signal was a buck and quarter and went over seven dollars today. Damm!! I should have pulled the trigger on that one too. God, what a great day and week. This reminds me of when he made those calls in 2007 and 2008.