Interesting. Much lower daily volume on the ES also. Today's volume is about 70% of yesterdays volume. So how do we trade this? Is this a top with no supply? or just a seasonal low volume day? - did the big players take the long weekend off for Groundhog day? :-)

Thanks Tom, I did short again last night, so I'm happy. :-)

Good luck, good trading to everyone!

.....Susan

Sorry I'm not sure. Obviously the SPY closed too high for the system to go long. But were we supposed to exit regardless, and then go long only if SPY below 130.50?

Or was the entire exit and reverse strategy conditional on SPY going below 130.50?

I got out with a nice profit and just wondering if I should go short again, IF the system is still short.

.....Susan

Sigh....

I think everyone's afraid to make any comments.

.....Susan

Klatuu so how would you trade this chart? Would you go short here with a target down around 1212? Or, how do you factor that the low volume is simply seasonal?

.....Susan

Kalinm very interesting charts. I've also been thinking about VIX. It's supposed to measure volatility in either direction, and yet we've all come to assume that it goes up as mkt goes down. The following is some sentences cut-pasted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX.

"Although the VIX is often called the "fear index", a high VIX is not necessarily bearish for stocks...  Instead, the VIX is a measure of market perceived volatility in either direction, including to the upside... The highest VIX readings occur when investors anticipate that huge moves in either direction are likely. Only when investors perceive neither significant downside risk nor significant upside potential will the VIX be low."

I vaguely remember reading something by McMillan which said another way to use VIX to predict mkt direction is to compare VIX futures to each other. If you go here http://cfe.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/CFEFuturesSymbology.aspxand scroll halfway down and look on the right, you'll see a snapshot of all the vix futures quotes. The further months get progressively higher. But McMillan said to also watch the change in vix futures values related to each other. Right now for example VIX cash shows down -1.79 from yesterday, but Jan VX shows down only -.40 from yesterday.

Susan

OMG! Is that for real? Shouldn't he have a parachute or a lifejacket or a vomit-bag or something?! Or at least a shoulder-strap for his seatbelt! And I thought trading was scary!

.....Susan

Ahhh. Thanks RP.

RP I'm trying to follow your logic over your last few posts. Are you longterm bullish on the Euro? and longterm bearish on the general market? But the general US market seems to follow the dollar (ie inversely), thus if you're bullish Euro, wouldn't you be bullish the market? What am I missing??

Yes VIX very interesting! I don't remember EVER seeing ES down over 20 points, closing near the lows, and VIX actually LOWER!

I don't follow divergences between VIX and SPX too closely - but this one is glaring! Maybe I'm wrong - does anyone follow vix/spx divergences? If VIX leads, this means Santa Claus rally soon.

Thanks for the official "no trade". I wasn't sure what the official SPY close was. Trading futures it's sometimes difficult to correlate the numbers. This time was good - bought, read the updated numbers, and sold all within 5 minutes for a .75 point profit.  Getting too old for this.

.....Susan

Matt thanks for sticking with us through all our griping. This trade had great timing!  :-)

.....Susan

Anyone else having trouble getting charts with Ninja today? Mine have been "loading data..." for a couple of hours so assuming it's just not working. I'm at office today where there's much slower internet connection. Wouldn't trade from here anyway, just wondering whether it's Ninja problems, or slow connection problems, or if I've somehow screwed something up. :-)

Thanks, anyone.

Seriously. Go ahead and google it. WITH the quotes.

I wonder if the max pain stuff for the S&P is that meaningful anymore - because there are S&P options expiring all the time.
BUT - it should be meaningful for other commodities which then in turn influence the stock market.
Are gold options expiring soon? What about options on various bonds?
Any thoughts anyone?

For awhile I've been trying to figure out which has more premium (all other things being equal), the end-of-month options or the 3rd-friday-expiring options. Finally came across a pdf put out by the CME, which contains this quote, "Because there is no risk of early exercise, European style options are often priced lower than American style options.

So if you're selling premium, sell the 3rd-friday-expiry ones. If you're buying options to hedge, buy the EOM ones.

.....Susan

MarketGuy, I just checked out your link to your charts at Stockcharts. Your chart on page 3, as you point out, is uncannily similar to 2007-2008! But I don't look for past similar patterns very often  -  is it unusual to find something like this?

.....Susan

Never mind the poor clients - from my (one time) experience it's sure doesn't go smoothly trying to change brokerage firms and transferring your positions.

I used to be with MF Global so can't help being curious about what happens to their staff. Someone buys out the company and it's business as usual?  OR a lot of people are out of a job. Anybody know? Too early to know?

.....Susan

Matt that is a totally awesome gesture!
I do believe the system's stats are valid, and have never doubted that you have been honest and straightforward.
Now (I do keep harping on this) GET SOME SLEEP!!

.....Susan

Or - maybe a 3rd entry - then all 3 entries becoming winners! This also happens. :-)

.....Susan