Posted by sbaxman111 on 6th of Oct 2017 at 01:09 pm
Crude Oilhas rallied for the past few months,
could it be peaking? Joe Friday suggests Crude finds itself at a
key
inflection point for it and its Fear Index (OVX).
Below looks at Crude Oil futures over the past decade-
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– If Crude breaks support and
OVX breaks resistance at (4), Crude could be a good prospect to
short, as selling pressure in Crude could pick up.
The stock market rally of late might get a little nervous if Crude
would happen to break down and OVX breaks out. What Crude does here
will be important for Crude Oil and the broad market in general, as
traders now own a crowded trade, similar to what they did back at
the highs in 2014.
While BofAML economists think its odds of passing have improved
only marginally compared to earlier in the
year, investor enthusiasm was high and small caps,
which are more sensitive to tax reform than large caps,
rallied.
And as that plan hit, the Russell 2000 call skew crashed to nearly
nine-year lows,
dramatically shifting sentiment seemingly overnight from anxiety
ridden to exuberantly levered-long.
The chart above shows the drop in the Russell 2000 Call Skew
(100%-105%) which implies higher relative demand for cheaper
in-the-money calls, signals levered bets on Small Caps continuing
to surge. Specifically, the 2m RTY 100-105 call skew declined to
1.22%,
the second lowest level since the beginning of 2009.
The lowest was a few months ago on 26-Apr-2017, also in response to
a White House tax reform briefing, and marked the interim top for
Small Caps.
Simply put, the last time Small Cap options traders were this
levered-long
marked the top in the Russell renaissance...Of course
this time could be different.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 3rd of Oct 2017 at 01:44 pm
This year's Spy Pro signals, using a 100% all in approach
for each trade, and an end of day etf price for exits instead of
MOO prices, has produced the following result:
The XIV-VXX combination is up 61.58% YTD as of the close on
10-2-17. The TNA-TZA combination is up +28.67% YTD as of last
night's close. Both strategies have been "IN" the market for 61
market days so far this year, including today. Just "Slightly
better" than buying and holding.
Both of these approaches, however, aren't really suited for
a lot of investors due to their day to day volatility.
Six weeks ago, Joe Friday shared that Amazon looked to have
created a large bearish reversal pattern at a key Fibonacci
extension level. See post
HEREBelow looks at an update of
Amazon on a “Monthly” basis-
Posted by sbaxman111 on 18th of Sep 2017 at 02:43 pm
At the moment(near 2:45) the 60 min RUT "Squeeze Pattern"
that I posted about last week once again has its ADX 7 indicator
above the 60% line. In addition the 60 min RUT chart has an RSI-14
value and RSI-21 value above 70%. The last time this 3 way
combination happened was back on Sept 1st. The next day the RUT
experienced a nice pullback from its short-term extremely
overbought condition.
Profit taking before the close could certainly alter this
possibility.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Sep 2017 at 01:48 pm
“
With cash levels at the
lowest level since 1997, and equity allocations near the highest
levels since 1999 and 2007, it also suggests investors are now
functionally ‘all in.'”
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Sep 2017 at 12:57 pm
Joe Friday Just The Facts– Potential “Eiffel Tower Pattern”
could be in play for Bitcoin. If investors experience the left
side of the Eiffel Tower Pattern, it is possible to experience the
right side as well.
Will be interesting months from now to see if the right side of the
Eiffel tower is experienced.
An important test of
support is taking place this morning at the 3,000-3,100
zone! Important for Bitcoin bulls that this support
holds!
In the chart below, the Gold/Dollar ratio trend is clearly
rising (which has been a positive for Gold). However, you’ll
also notice to factors that appear to be headwinds for gold going
forward: (1) The rising trend is at a confluence of
price resistance points. As well, it is testing the top of its
3-year trading range. (2) At the same time that the
Gold/Dollar ratio is hitting price resistance, it is also seeing
momentum hit levels last seen near the 2011 highs.
The takeaway: A “lasting” breakout above this level
may require a momentum reset (i.e. a breather for gold first). And
with other charts showing the U.S. Dollar oversold, this may be in
the cards. Gold investors & traders will no doubt want to want
to keep an eye on this ratio.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Sep 2017 at 03:25 pm
On my 60 minute chart one of the indicators I watch for is
a "squeeze pattern" derived from the combination of two indicators.
The PPO with a 12,26,3 formula, and the ADX-7.
When the ADX 7 achieves a value above 60 on the 60 min RUT
chart, the statistical odds increase that a short-term reversal is
likely. So far in 2017, each time the ADX-7 has gone over the 60
level, a reversal has followed in the near future. In today's case,
this is the 7th time that ADX-7 has gone over 70% - increasing
further the short-term odds of a near term reversal.
The previous dates in 2017 where ADX-7 has gone over 70%
are Jan25th, Feb 13th, Mar 31st, April 25th, Aug 18th, Sept 1st,
Sept 13th
This is the 14th time in 2017 the ADX-7 has gone above 60
on the 60 min RUT chart, and the 8th time this year it has signaled
a potential reversal to the downside.
Of course, the ADX-7 indicator does NOT signal a long or
short possibility - it is simply an indication of the current
strength of the underlying short-term move in the index or stock.
In this case the PPO indicator determines if the current short-term
trend is overbought or oversold. Today the PPO for the RUT index is
at a position above +0.40 and has experienced an internal line
crossover to the downside. So, this squeeze pattern would indicate
a potential move to the downside.
In addition to this current RUT "squeeze pattern", the 60
min RSI-14 and RSI-21 indicators are both above the 70% line. This
pattern doesn't occur very often from a statistical basis. The 60
min ULT 7,14,28 indicator is also above the upper 70 line for a
second straight day.
The daily RSI-2 for RUT is currently at 96.54%. But at the
beginning of September it took 2 days above 99.6% to finally
trigger a short-term reversal.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Sep 2017 at 11:19 am
it has now been 311 days since the S&P 500 last
experienced just a 3% pullback. As shown below, this is the
2nd longest streak of all-time without a 3%+ pullback. To
break this record, we’ll need to go another 59 days without
declining 3% from today’sclose.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Sep 2017 at 11:46 am
Other than collecting a nice dividend, it has been painful
to own XOM over the past 6-years and the past decade, as its
performance has been flat. Could this lagging performance be about
to end? Exxon finds itself testing an important line in the sand
below, that could tell us a ton about its future-
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Sep 2017 at 10:31 am
Six years ago this week, the Power of the Pattern shared
that “Gold could be flat to down for years to
come!” Below looks at the performance of Gold, Silver, GDX and
GDXJ since the post on 9/1/11-
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Sep 2017 at 02:54 am
Another anti timing, buy and hold your asset allocation
guy. I wonder then how Goldman Sachs made more than $100 million a
day in trading for 130+ market days a few years back????
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Kimble on Crude Oil
Posted by sbaxman111 on 6th of Oct 2017 at 01:09 pm
Crude Oil has rallied for the past few months, could it be peaking? Joe Friday suggests Crude finds itself at a key inflection point for it and its Fear Index (OVX).
Below looks at Crude Oil futures over the past decade-
Crude Oil rally of late has it testing 6-year falling resistance as its fear index (OVX) is testing 2015 lows at the same time.
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– If Crude breaks support and OVX breaks resistance at (4), Crude could be a good prospect to short, as selling pressure in Crude could pick up.
The stock market rally of late might get a little nervous if Crude would happen to break down and OVX breaks out. What Crude does here will be important for Crude Oil and the broad market in general, as traders now own a crowded trade, similar to what they did back at the highs in 2014.
S&P vs FAANG
Posted by sbaxman111 on 5th of Oct 2017 at 03:48 pm
Rut Options extreme
Posted by sbaxman111 on 3rd of Oct 2017 at 03:26 pm
While BofAML economists think its odds of passing have improved only marginally compared to earlier in the year, investor enthusiasm was high and small caps, which are more sensitive to tax reform than large caps, rallied.
And as that plan hit, the Russell 2000 call skew crashed to nearly nine-year lows, dramatically shifting sentiment seemingly overnight from anxiety ridden to exuberantly levered-long.
The chart above shows the drop in the Russell 2000 Call Skew (100%-105%) which implies higher relative demand for cheaper in-the-money calls, signals levered bets on Small Caps continuing to surge. Specifically, the 2m RTY 100-105 call skew declined to 1.22%, the second lowest level since the beginning of 2009.
The lowest was a few months ago on 26-Apr-2017, also in response to a White House tax reform briefing, and marked the interim top for Small Caps.
Simply put, the last time Small Cap options traders were this levered-long marked the top in the Russell renaissance...Of course this time could be different.
Spy Pro alternative etf's performance
Posted by sbaxman111 on 3rd of Oct 2017 at 01:44 pm
This year's Spy Pro signals, using a 100% all in approach for each trade, and an end of day etf price for exits instead of MOO prices, has produced the following result:
The XIV-VXX combination is up 61.58% YTD as of the close on 10-2-17. The TNA-TZA combination is up +28.67% YTD as of last night's close. Both strategies have been "IN" the market for 61 market days so far this year, including today. Just "Slightly better" than buying and holding.
Both of these approaches, however, aren't really suited for a lot of investors due to their day to day volatility.
Bespoke - Oct volatility
Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Oct 2017 at 01:43 pm
years ending in 7
Posted by sbaxman111 on 2nd of Oct 2017 at 12:14 pm
Things may about to get a little more exciting - entering the final months of 2017, that last digit doesn’t bode well, if history is any indication .
As Bloomberg reports, some of the biggest fourth-quarter declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average have occurred in years ending in seven, the worst being in a Black-Monday plagued 1987.
Knight -GDX ready to bounce?
Posted by sbaxman111 on 22nd of Sep 2017 at 01:09 pm
ZH Chart
Posted by sbaxman111 on 22nd of Sep 2017 at 12:57 pm
...as 2017 earnings expectations hit year-to-date lows...
Kimble - Amazon
Posted by sbaxman111 on 22nd of Sep 2017 at 10:06 am
Six weeks ago, Joe Friday shared that Amazon looked to have created a large bearish reversal pattern at a key Fibonacci extension level. See post HERE Below looks at an update of Amazon on a “Monthly” basis-
Below looks at Amazon on a weekly basis-
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– Amazon could be forming “dual topping” patterns over the past few months. What it does at dual support at (1), could become critical for the patterns at the stock!
If dual support would happen to give way at (2), it could encourage selling pressure and could impact the broad market.
Roberts - 4 Warnings For The Bull Market
Posted by sbaxman111 on 21st of Sep 2017 at 10:26 am
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/4-warnings-for-the-bull-market/
Another 60 min Squeeze Patten
Posted by sbaxman111 on 18th of Sep 2017 at 02:43 pm
At the moment(near 2:45) the 60 min RUT "Squeeze Pattern" that I posted about last week once again has its ADX 7 indicator above the 60% line. In addition the 60 min RUT chart has an RSI-14 value and RSI-21 value above 70%. The last time this 3 way combination happened was back on Sept 1st. The next day the RUT experienced a nice pullback from its short-term extremely overbought condition.
Profit taking before the close could certainly alter this possibility.
Cash levels
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Sep 2017 at 01:48 pm
Quote
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Sep 2017 at 01:45 pm
Doug Kass - I'm Not Afraid of a Bear Market, I Just Don't Want to Be There for It
Kimble- Bitcoin chart
Posted by sbaxman111 on 15th of Sep 2017 at 12:57 pm
Joe Friday Just The Facts– Potential “Eiffel Tower Pattern” could be in play for Bitcoin. If investors experience the left side of the Eiffel Tower Pattern, it is possible to experience the right side as well.
Will be interesting months from now to see if the right side of the Eiffel tower is experienced. An important test of support is taking place this morning at the 3,000-3,100 zone! Important for Bitcoin bulls that this support holds!
Kimble - Gold/Dollar ratio trend
Posted by sbaxman111 on 14th of Sep 2017 at 10:14 am
In the chart below, the Gold/Dollar ratio trend is clearly rising (which has been a positive for Gold). However, you’ll also notice to factors that appear to be headwinds for gold going forward: (1) The rising trend is at a confluence of price resistance points. As well, it is testing the top of its 3-year trading range. (2) At the same time that the Gold/Dollar ratio is hitting price resistance, it is also seeing momentum hit levels last seen near the 2011 highs.
The takeaway: A “lasting” breakout above this level may require a momentum reset (i.e. a breather for gold first). And with other charts showing the U.S. Dollar oversold, this may be in the cards. Gold investors & traders will no doubt want to want to keep an eye on this ratio.
Gold / U.S. Dollar Ratio “Weekly” Bar Chart
Possible Short "squeeze pattern" in play for RUT
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Sep 2017 at 03:25 pm
On my 60 minute chart one of the indicators I watch for is a "squeeze pattern" derived from the combination of two indicators. The PPO with a 12,26,3 formula, and the ADX-7.
When the ADX 7 achieves a value above 60 on the 60 min RUT chart, the statistical odds increase that a short-term reversal is likely. So far in 2017, each time the ADX-7 has gone over the 60 level, a reversal has followed in the near future. In today's case, this is the 7th time that ADX-7 has gone over 70% - increasing further the short-term odds of a near term reversal.
The previous dates in 2017 where ADX-7 has gone over 70% are Jan25th, Feb 13th, Mar 31st, April 25th, Aug 18th, Sept 1st, Sept 13th
This is the 14th time in 2017 the ADX-7 has gone above 60 on the 60 min RUT chart, and the 8th time this year it has signaled a potential reversal to the downside.
Of course, the ADX-7 indicator does NOT signal a long or short possibility - it is simply an indication of the current strength of the underlying short-term move in the index or stock. In this case the PPO indicator determines if the current short-term trend is overbought or oversold. Today the PPO for the RUT index is at a position above +0.40 and has experienced an internal line crossover to the downside. So, this squeeze pattern would indicate a potential move to the downside.
In addition to this current RUT "squeeze pattern", the 60 min RSI-14 and RSI-21 indicators are both above the 70% line. This pattern doesn't occur very often from a statistical basis. The 60 min ULT 7,14,28 indicator is also above the upper 70 line for a second straight day.
The daily RSI-2 for RUT is currently at 96.54%. But at the beginning of September it took 2 days above 99.6% to finally trigger a short-term reversal.
Bespoke - Rallies w/o 3% correction
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Sep 2017 at 11:19 am
it has now been 311 days since the S&P 500 last experienced just a 3% pullback. As shown below, this is the 2nd longest streak of all-time without a 3%+ pullback. To break this record, we’ll need to go another 59 days without declining 3% from today’sclose.
Kimble -XOM
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Sep 2017 at 11:46 am
Other than collecting a nice dividend, it has been painful to own XOM over the past 6-years and the past decade, as its performance has been flat. Could this lagging performance be about to end? Exxon finds itself testing an important line in the sand below, that could tell us a ton about its future-
Line (1) has been support/resistance several times at each (2) over the past 30-years. The decline over the past couple of years has XOM testing support line (1) at (3). While testing this line, XOM could be forming a bullish at (3).
The Power of the Pattern is of the opinion that if falling wedge resistance is taken out at (4), it could attract buyers to this out of favor company. A nice risk/reward set up is in play, as (1) becomes a nice stop loss for long positions, should selling pressure take place.
Kimble - Gold Bullish Pattern?
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Sep 2017 at 10:31 am
Six years ago this week, the Power of the Pattern shared that “Gold could be flat to down for years to come!” Below looks at the performance of Gold, Silver, GDX and GDXJ since the post on 9/1/11-
Could the struggles of the metals markets be about to end? Mother of all “Bullish Patterns” in play for Gold? Could be, check out the chart below-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Even though Gold has been down hard the past 6-years, it did NOT break below rising support off the 2001 lows, which was tested at last years lows. This is a long-term positive.
Over the past couple of years, Gold could be forming a base, that is taking the shape of a “Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders” pattern. If the read would happen to be correct, an all important test is in play at this time. The key test in play is this…Gold is testing the underside of the neckline, which is resistance at this time.
Bottom Line– If this read is correct and Gold breaks above the neckline at (1), we could see buying pressure take place, that has been absent for years.
Barry Ritholtz
Posted by sbaxman111 on 7th of Sep 2017 at 02:54 am
Another anti timing, buy and hold your asset allocation guy. I wonder then how Goldman Sachs made more than $100 million a day in trading for 130+ market days a few years back????
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-06/the-fickle-fortunes-of-market-timing