Posted by sbaxman111 on 27th of Oct 2017 at 11:12 am
Thanks to the spike in Amazon's stock price overnight after
blow-out earnings, CEO Jeff Bezos has added almost $7 billion to
his net worth -
pushing him above Microsoft founder Bill Gates to become the
world's richest person...
Bezos, 53, has added $18.1 billion to his fortune this
year.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 23rd of Oct 2017 at 02:09 pm
The Dow is trading at one of its most overbought levels in history.
At 87.61, its 14-day RSI is higher than 99.999% of historical readings going
back to 1900.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 19th of Oct 2017 at 03:07 pm
Below looks at the
Bank Index (BKX) over the past 20-years and why the Power of the Pattern
feels this could become a very important price point for the
bulls.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 18th of Oct 2017 at 04:06 pm
Today, we present a different response, this time from Bank of
America, which has just completed the periodic update of its
valuation matrix based on the 20 most widely used valuation
metrics, and which finds that as of today,
the S&P is substantially overvalued on 18 of 20 valuation
metrics
, with the only exceptions being free cash flow (helped again by
depressed capex), and relative to small caps/bonds - the Fed's
favorite indicator - where yields remain depressed thanks to
the Fed's failure to stimulate wage inflation for nearly 9
years.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Oct 2017 at 02:19 pm
Thanks for this interesting use of an obscure indicator
Matt!!
I just calculated by hand a possible strategy using the
trade date Matt listed for !PMOBUYALL. Where there was no sell
signal after an initial buy, and then a second buy signal was
created, I simply maintained the trade from the initial date
without exiting or scaling in. Since I am not familiar with this
indicator, I will assume that it is an EOD data point and that it
might take some time for the current day's data to fill in after
the actual close. But, just to make it simple, I calculated 100%
all in buy trades and exits using the XIV etn. Just since 11-7-16
this approach would be up something close to +140%. There have been
NO losing trades so far, keeping in mind that the current trade is
still active. As I write this post, XIV is up more than 2% today
which has not been included in my calculations.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Oct 2017 at 02:51 pm
The
Nikkie index has found a certain price level very tough to break free
from for the past 24-years. Below looks at the Nikkei index on a
monthly basis for the past 30-years.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Oct 2017 at 02:28 pm
A
real dating ad from Florida:
LONG-TERM COMMITMENT - Recent widow who has just buried fourth
husband, Looking for someone to round out a six-unit plot.
Dizziness, fainting, shortness of breath, not a problem.
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Oct 2017 at 12:07 pm
Zero Volatility, ZERO WORRY
We have written about it in the past and probably will again in the
future, but Wednesday’s volatility and volume were so unbelievably
low, it boggled the mind. Volume was 50% less than the
average and there was no volatility as the market’s total range was
surely a joke. Yet, all of the major stock indices notched
new all-time highs…as if nothing was out of the ordinary.
As it turns out, we’re not the only ones to find it odd…
“We seem to be living in the riskiest moment of our lives,
and yet the stock market seems to be napping,” Nobel
Laureate Richard Thaler said, in an interview with Bloomberg.
“I admit to not understanding
it.” Additionally he said,
“I don’t know about you, but I’m nervous, and it seems like
when investors are nervous, they’re prone to being
spooked,” (but)
“Nothing seems to spook the market.”
True. So just how ridiculously low is the volatility?
It was recently reported that the average October volatility,
since the beginning of record keeping, has been 17.0%. This
month it is a minuscule 5.2%, which is the lowest in 90 YEARS!
Want more proof of just how crazy this all is? OK, we’re
game. The chart below shows that the S&P500
price-to-sales ratio is just 4% under its all-time high before the
2000 crash. It’s probably nothing.
Is that fire I smell or smoldering embers that are about to ignite
another Flash Crash?
Posted by sbaxman111 on 6th of Oct 2017 at 01:51 pm
Today, it is SocGen's turn to follow up on what we said, and in a
report from SocGen's Arthur van Slooten, the strategist writes that
"while traditional inflation measures may not call for aggressive
tightening,
we believe high valuation (e.g. cyclically adjusted price-earnings,
or CAPE, multiples above 30x) is a sign of inflation in financial
assets that is hard to miss
.
This is the elephant in the room."
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Bezos is having a good day today
Posted by sbaxman111 on 27th of Oct 2017 at 11:12 am
Thanks to the spike in Amazon's stock price overnight after blow-out earnings, CEO Jeff Bezos has added almost $7 billion to his net worth - pushing him above Microsoft founder Bill Gates to become the world's richest person...
Bezos, 53, has added $18.1 billion to his fortune this year.
Offered without political comment
Posted by sbaxman111 on 25th of Oct 2017 at 04:33 pm
Colin Kaepernick has supposedly signed a $1 million dollar book deal with Random House. It should obviously be named “The Art Of The Kneel.”
exhaustion trade on ES
exhaustion trade on ES
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Oct 2017 at 02:29 pm
You can also trade 20 regular S&P futures contracts instead of 100 e-minis for the same value.
10 Year Treasury crosses 2.40%
Posted by sbaxman111 on 24th of Oct 2017 at 01:20 pm
10Y Treasury yields just crossed 2017's Maginot Line of 2.40% - the highest in six months...
DOW RSI-2 LEVEL
Posted by sbaxman111 on 23rd of Oct 2017 at 02:09 pm
The Dow is trading at one of its most overbought levels in history. At 87.61, its 14-day RSI is higher than 99.999% of historical readings going back to 1900.
Just for fun - here's the SPY system stats if ...
SPY Pro system new stop
Posted by sbaxman111 on 20th of Oct 2017 at 03:45 pm
Don't forget that Spy Pro had a one day short on 2-27-17 thru 2-28 that was worth 2.45% if you used VXX, or about 2.65% if you shorted XIV.
Kimble - Bank Index key price point
Posted by sbaxman111 on 19th of Oct 2017 at 03:07 pm
Below looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past 20-years and why the Power of the Pattern feels this could become a very important price point for the bulls.
As mentioned in the chart above, the Bank Index is testing the underside long-term rising channel (1) again. At the start of this year, the bank index hit the underside of rising channel (1) at (4) and banks then proceeded to trade sideways for 7-months. The rally in banks of late has the index testing the underside of channel (1) again at (5), which also could be a 2017 double top, at the underside of the long-term channel.
Stock bulls should get a little nervous should weakness start taking place at (5). This is a price point that bulls would not want to see selling start! We now know what stock bulls don’t want to see, what would stock bulls like to see? Bank and broad market bulls want/need to see a breakout at (5), NOT selling pressure or a double top. We humbly feel what Banks do at this key price point, could impact portfolio construction going into the end of the year.
S&P 500 Valuations
Posted by sbaxman111 on 18th of Oct 2017 at 04:06 pm
Today, we present a different response, this time from Bank of America, which has just completed the periodic update of its valuation matrix based on the 20 most widely used valuation metrics, and which finds that as of today, the S&P is substantially overvalued on 18 of 20 valuation metrics , with the only exceptions being free cash flow (helped again by depressed capex), and relative to small caps/bonds - the Fed's favorite indicator - where yields remain depressed thanks to the Fed's failure to stimulate wage inflation for nearly 9 years.
DOw 1000 Point Thresholds
Posted by sbaxman111 on 17th of Oct 2017 at 03:31 pm
S&P 3% Drawdown Stata
Posted by sbaxman111 on 17th of Oct 2017 at 11:28 am
Trading !PMOBUYALL using XIV and Cash
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Oct 2017 at 02:19 pm
Thanks for this interesting use of an obscure indicator Matt!!
I just calculated by hand a possible strategy using the trade date Matt listed for !PMOBUYALL. Where there was no sell signal after an initial buy, and then a second buy signal was created, I simply maintained the trade from the initial date without exiting or scaling in. Since I am not familiar with this indicator, I will assume that it is an EOD data point and that it might take some time for the current day's data to fill in after the actual close. But, just to make it simple, I calculated 100% all in buy trades and exits using the XIV etn. Just since 11-7-16 this approach would be up something close to +140%. There have been NO losing trades so far, keeping in mind that the current trade is still active. As I write this post, XIV is up more than 2% today which has not been included in my calculations.
Michigan Consumer Confidence
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Oct 2017 at 01:45 pm
Americans have never been more confident that that stock market will rally further in the next 12 months...
Kimble - XLE key line
Posted by sbaxman111 on 13th of Oct 2017 at 11:55 am
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– XLE is testing dual resistance this week at (2), at the top of falling channel (1). If XLE breaks out at (2), it should attract buyers!
Kimble - Nikkei Breakout/Resistance Line
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Oct 2017 at 02:51 pm
The Nikkie index has found a certain price level very tough to break free from for the past 24-years. Below looks at the Nikkei index on a monthly basis for the past 30-years.
Line (A) comes into play around the 20,900 level. Since the early 1990’s, the majority of the time it hit line (A) at each (1), the Nikkei ended up creating an important high. Five different times, the Nikkei has hit this level at (1) and peaked. These peaks were important to the Nikkei and indices around the world.
Long Term "Investing"
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Oct 2017 at 02:28 pm
Levin Commentary
Posted by sbaxman111 on 12th of Oct 2017 at 12:07 pm
Zero Volatility, ZERO WORRY
We have written about it in the past and probably will again in the future, but Wednesday’s volatility and volume were so unbelievably low, it boggled the mind. Volume was 50% less than the average and there was no volatility as the market’s total range was surely a joke. Yet, all of the major stock indices notched new all-time highs…as if nothing was out of the ordinary.
As it turns out, we’re not the only ones to find it odd…
“We seem to be living in the riskiest moment of our lives, and yet the stock market seems to be napping,” Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler said, in an interview with Bloomberg. “I admit to not understanding it.” Additionally he said, “I don’t know about you, but I’m nervous, and it seems like when investors are nervous, they’re prone to being spooked,” (but) “Nothing seems to spook the market.”
True. So just how ridiculously low is the volatility? It was recently reported that the average October volatility, since the beginning of record keeping, has been 17.0%. This month it is a minuscule 5.2%, which is the lowest in 90 YEARS!
Want more proof of just how crazy this all is? OK, we’re game. The chart below shows that the S&P500 price-to-sales ratio is just 4% under its all-time high before the 2000 crash. It’s probably nothing.
Is that fire I smell or smoldering embers that are about to ignite another Flash Crash?
S&P Sector performance
Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Oct 2017 at 04:35 pm
5 & 10 YR PERFORMANCE
Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Oct 2017 at 01:29 pm
Asset performance since the 10-9-07 Peak
Posted by sbaxman111 on 10th of Oct 2017 at 10:52 am
ZH- CAPE LEVELS
Posted by sbaxman111 on 6th of Oct 2017 at 01:51 pm
Today, it is SocGen's turn to follow up on what we said, and in a report from SocGen's Arthur van Slooten, the strategist writes that "while traditional inflation measures may not call for aggressive tightening, we believe high valuation (e.g. cyclically adjusted price-earnings, or CAPE, multiples above 30x) is a sign of inflation in financial assets that is hard to miss . This is the elephant in the room."
Slooten then slams the vol-selling activity of central banks, pointing out that "high valuation was supported by the drop in volatility, but now that volatility has reached near-historical low levels, further drops may even be dangerous. This situation would not have existed without the unprecedented liquidity support from central bankers over the last few year. "