While BofAML economists think its odds of passing have improved
only marginally compared to earlier in the
year, investor enthusiasm was high and small caps,
which are more sensitive to tax reform than large caps,
rallied.
And as that plan hit, the Russell 2000 call skew crashed to nearly
nine-year lows,
dramatically shifting sentiment seemingly overnight from anxiety
ridden to exuberantly levered-long.
The chart above shows the drop in the Russell 2000 Call Skew
(100%-105%) which implies higher relative demand for cheaper
in-the-money calls, signals levered bets on Small Caps continuing
to surge. Specifically, the 2m RTY 100-105 call skew declined to
1.22%,
the second lowest level since the beginning of 2009.
The lowest was a few months ago on 26-Apr-2017, also in response to
a White House tax reform briefing, and marked the interim top for
Small Caps.
Simply put, the last time Small Cap options traders were this
levered-long
marked the top in the Russell renaissance...Of course
this time could be different.
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Rut Options extreme
Posted by sbaxman111 on 3rd of Oct 2017 at 03:26 pm
While BofAML economists think its odds of passing have improved only marginally compared to earlier in the year, investor enthusiasm was high and small caps, which are more sensitive to tax reform than large caps, rallied.
And as that plan hit, the Russell 2000 call skew crashed to nearly nine-year lows, dramatically shifting sentiment seemingly overnight from anxiety ridden to exuberantly levered-long.
The chart above shows the drop in the Russell 2000 Call Skew (100%-105%) which implies higher relative demand for cheaper in-the-money calls, signals levered bets on Small Caps continuing to surge. Specifically, the 2m RTY 100-105 call skew declined to 1.22%, the second lowest level since the beginning of 2009.
The lowest was a few months ago on 26-Apr-2017, also in response to a White House tax reform briefing, and marked the interim top for Small Caps.
Simply put, the last time Small Cap options traders were this levered-long marked the top in the Russell renaissance...Of course this time could be different.