minutes from 6/17-18/14 meeting to be released. no news
conference after. FYI: Yellen to 'entertain' congress on ~7/15 for
the semi annual FED review. (formerly known as Humphrey Hawkins
testimony). today's minutes could be more hawkish than expected,
but QE lives on nevertheless.... Also, (factoid) last 10 FOMC
minute releases, long bond rates have ended the day higher. good
trading
fwiw: Since 1940, the average pullback in the 3
rdquarter has been roughly -8% with mid-term election
years fairing slightly worse at -11%. (courtesy of FBN
securities)
i am amazed by the lack of interest in put buying (nobody wants
'protection' these days). i have a stable of puts that i typically
sell after each expiration (it's one way of earning a 'living
wage'). even with today's opening decline in many of those names of
1 to 2 percent, there were no takers for my dozen
odd positions (most of those stocks are now up on the day). i
was not being aggressive either.
wow, just got run over, been trying to sell some july 16 covered
calls for days, hundreds of contracts traded at my level around me,
but not mine. then today, i'm back at it this am and they trade
around me again, until.... 12:16pm est, when the sucker just
spiked. i hope someone here was quick enough to buy em from me,
they
tripledin short order.
i'd love to be a seller of these again (quite profitable over
the past year for out of the money puts), but mgmt just can't seem
to get its act together. and i dont think the charts are supportive
of the stock (moving up) to make the trade payoff vs getting
assigned. maybe next month if the gold cycle low reforms in July.
i'll await BPT guidance for that.
i liked the support after the gap down in early may and the
fundamentals looked supportive of $6 bucks (lots of cash on hand),
so i sold some slightly out of the money June puts last month.
probably shoulda posted that one, ... and the shares i bought (too
early) are now just above water (so i was a bit early there).
now if we could just close that last gap down....
not likely to see this scenario under the current FOMC
leadership. we are going to be seeing low short term interest rates
for a sustainted period (whatever that means). thus to see the 3
month tbill yield above the 30 year bond yield anytime soon would
be fantasy.
reports ~ 5/2/14?, but could be interesting, fundamentally, they
have $300 million in cash against 89 million shares. negative
c/f $15 million per quarter. virtually all 'enterprise value' as
market cap. have to have faith to own for more than a trade.
shorting those june 10 puts looks mighty tempting.... have to wait
for 'earnings' though and/or a pullback closer to $14 for me
...
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FOMC minutes released @ 2pm est.
Posted by hazbin1 on 9th of Jul 2014 at 10:57 am
minutes from 6/17-18/14 meeting to be released. no news conference after. FYI: Yellen to 'entertain' congress on ~7/15 for the semi annual FED review. (formerly known as Humphrey Hawkins testimony). today's minutes could be more hawkish than expected, but QE lives on nevertheless.... Also, (factoid) last 10 FOMC minute releases, long bond rates have ended the day higher. good trading
perfect timing
NOAH Update
Posted by hazbin1 on 2nd of Jul 2014 at 02:34 pm
must be getting ready for the east coast Hurricane.
Interesting mkt factoid
Posted by hazbin1 on 1st of Jul 2014 at 08:52 am
fwiw: Since 1940, the average pullback in the 3 rdquarter has been roughly -8% with mid-term election years fairing slightly worse at -11%. (courtesy of FBN securities)
astounding market
Major indices still grinding higher (holding up)..continue to monitor.
Posted by hazbin1 on 25th of Jun 2014 at 03:29 pm
i am amazed by the lack of interest in put buying (nobody wants 'protection' these days). i have a stable of puts that i typically sell after each expiration (it's one way of earning a 'living wage'). even with today's opening decline in many of those names of 1 to 2 percent, there were no takers for my dozen odd positions (most of those stocks are now up on the day). i was not being aggressive either.
explanation
GMCR taking volume last 5 minutes
Posted by hazbin1 on 17th of Jun 2014 at 01:56 pm
caffeine taking hold
HL
gold pm stocks
Posted by hazbin1 on 17th of Jun 2014 at 01:54 pm
i would prefer the b/o of the bull flag wait until next week when i can replace the short position in my expiring 3 puts.
IGT
Posted by hazbin1 on 13th of Jun 2014 at 01:23 pm
wow, just got run over, been trying to sell some july 16 covered calls for days, hundreds of contracts traded at my level around me, but not mine. then today, i'm back at it this am and they trade around me again, until.... 12:16pm est, when the sucker just spiked. i hope someone here was quick enough to buy em from me, they tripled in short order.
NEM puts
NEM puts working out well. Sold 1/2 after stock dropped from 23.39 area
Posted by hazbin1 on 13th of Jun 2014 at 11:11 am
i'd love to be a seller of these again (quite profitable over the past year for out of the money puts), but mgmt just can't seem to get its act together. and i dont think the charts are supportive of the stock (moving up) to make the trade payoff vs getting assigned. maybe next month if the gold cycle low reforms in July. i'll await BPT guidance for that.
UH OH
For those not aware, the IRAQ situation is unnerving the ...
Posted by hazbin1 on 12th of Jun 2014 at 01:57 pm
IRAN SAID TO DEPLOY REVOLUTIONARY GUARD IN IRAQ: WSJ
yup ECYT
ECYT
Posted by hazbin1 on 12th of Jun 2014 at 01:11 pm
i liked the support after the gap down in early may and the fundamentals looked supportive of $6 bucks (lots of cash on hand), so i sold some slightly out of the money June puts last month. probably shoulda posted that one, ... and the shares i bought (too early) are now just above water (so i was a bit early there). now if we could just close that last gap down....
Gale
GALE
Posted by hazbin1 on 11th of Jun 2014 at 10:29 am
i vote for a replay of the jan spike higher!
oh yeah!!
WB
Posted by hazbin1 on 3rd of Jun 2014 at 11:33 am
short squeeze posts
60 min SPX short squeeze pattern update
Posted by hazbin1 on 28th of May 2014 at 03:54 pm
i find the perspective very interesting. another tool in the tool box. thanks
and i quote
Resistance on ES around 1884/85 (prior highs)
Posted by hazbin1 on 21st of May 2014 at 10:33 am
resistance is futile!
(such a trekkie, i know)....
yield curve inversion - not happening
article today, argues the yield curve has correctly predicted bear markets for 50 years
Posted by hazbin1 on 14th of May 2014 at 11:47 am
not likely to see this scenario under the current FOMC leadership. we are going to be seeing low short term interest rates for a sustainted period (whatever that means). thus to see the 3 month tbill yield above the 30 year bond yield anytime soon would be fantasy.
Miners
Posted by hazbin1 on 12th of May 2014 at 08:46 am
FWIW: JPMorgan is upgrading Mining from UW to OW following a two-year bearish view on the space. and RIO goes on 'focus' list at another firm
Vale
RIO / BHP / VALE
Posted by hazbin1 on 8th of May 2014 at 08:30 am
agree on that one, i sold june 12.5 puts on monday.
CLF
WLT
Posted by hazbin1 on 5th of May 2014 at 02:15 pm
agreed, sold an 'assortment' of short dated OTM puts early this am.
great idea
VALE
Posted by hazbin1 on 2nd of May 2014 at 11:25 am
been trying to short some short dated 12 puts for 2 days, can't chase it any more.
CLDX
A Few More Setups Tonight
Posted by hazbin1 on 30th of Apr 2014 at 08:20 am
reports ~ 5/2/14?, but could be interesting, fundamentally, they have $300 million in cash against 89 million shares. negative c/f $15 million per quarter. virtually all 'enterprise value' as market cap. have to have faith to own for more than a trade. shorting those june 10 puts looks mighty tempting.... have to wait for 'earnings' though and/or a pullback closer to $14 for me ...